HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—lower: CZ, -$.0250; SX, -$.0225; WZ, -$.0975; KWZ, -$.14

·       What caught my eye: Debate beginning on how many bean acres Brazil will plant this fall.  USDA has them up 1.7 million hectares at 38.6, one of the larger year to year increases in some time.  That’s double the average increase of past 5 years, 960 K HA 

·       U.S. Covid cases hit record high, hammers DOW futures

• Asia:  Mostly weaker:  Nikkei, -0.09%; Shanghai, -0.82%; Hang Seng, closed
• EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -2.22%; FTSE, -0.03%; CAC, -0.65%
• WALL STREET: Lower–DOW futures, -267; S&P, -32.5; NAS, -91.25
• EXTERNALS: Dec crude, -$0.88 @ $38.97; Gold: -$0.70 @ $1,905; Mar $ Index, +0.284 @ 93.052
• T-storm Weather®: Intense cold continues through Tue. in U.S. Plains, leaving HRW wheat areas below freezing through then, including record-setting lows for entire month of Oct. in many areas as temps reach 0s & 10s today & Tue.—an incredible -35°F to -50°F from normal.  Light to moderate snow continues today across central & southern Plains; 1”-3” of accumulation.  Otherwise, 0.50”-1.50” of rain affects southeast third to half of Corn Belt through Wed.  Drying then follows & lasts for at least 7-10 days
• CZ, dn $.0250 @ $4.1650; CH, dn $.0250 @ $4.1775.  Export outlook remains bright, funds buy 10 K on Friday         
• SX, dn $.0225 @ $10.8150; SF, dn $.02 @ $10.79.  Funds bot 6 SB; 4 SBM; 5 SBO. Board crush: $1.42 (Z/X), +.04; LY, $0.84
• WZ, dn $.0975 @ $6.23; WH, dn $.09 @ $6.2350.  Funds buy 7 K as Russia remains mostly dry                          

CORN/SORGHUM

·     ​  December 2020 corn futures on Friday closed at $4.19 ¼--highest settlement price for the contract since July 17, 2019

·       U.S. corn harvested in today’s USDA Crop Progress report is expected at 72%, which is up 12 points from last week.  This is also sharply above the 38% pace of last year and would be the fastest since 2015 (74%)

·       T-storm Weather®: In Argentina, 28% of first-crop corn was planted as of Oct. 22, -7 points from 5-year mean.  Rain returned to varying areas last few days, improving topsoil moisture but maintaining longer-term dryness & drought

·       Through Oct. 23, the 2020 crop insurance harvest price for December 2020 corn futures has averaged $3.9668

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Nov. 2020 soybean futures on Fri. closed at $10.83 ¾--highest nearby futures settlement price since July 14, 2016

·       U.S. soybeans harvested est. at 89% vs. 75% last week, 57% last year & 5-year avg. of 73%: fastest since 2010 (91%)

·       T-storm Weather®: 3.00”-6.00” of rain over the next two weeks affects soybeans in central and northern Brazil

·       Through Oct. 23, the 2020 crop insurance harvest price for November 2020 soybean futures has averaged $10.5119

·       Chicago Dec. wheat futures on Fri. closed at $6.32 ¾--highest nearby futures settlement price since Dec. 23, 2014

·       T-storm Weather®: 1.00” to 3.00” of water (rain, ice, snow) over Mon.-Wed. impact wheat in OK, TX, southern half KS

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLZ20, -$0.88 @ $38.97; EBZ, NA; EBZ-CLZ, NA; RBX, -.0104; NGX, +.022; HOX, -.0271

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0375 higher at $1.5825 on Friday.   basis, easier: NYC, -$.0075 @ $.0725; Gulf, -$.0025 @ +$.1025; Dallas, -$.0025 @ +$.0825; Tampa, -$.0125 @ +$.1575; LA, -$.0075 @ +$.1425

·       Ethanol RIN values, firmer: 2019’s, +1.50 @ 57-60; 2020’s: +1.50 @ 57 ½ -59; 2021, +$1.50 @ 60-62                                                             ​;                        ​                         ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;         

·      ​ The RBOB/ethanol spread is unavailable this morning due to quote difficulties  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY               &​nbsp;                       <​/wbr>

• Choice boxed beef declined $1.37 on Friday to $207.49, and is down $2.54 compared to a week ago
• Cattle on Feed: Oct 1 on feed, 103.8% (103.3% avg est); Sep placed, 105.9% (102.5%); Sep Marketed, 106.2% (105.9%)
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value plummeted $6.92 on Fri. to $91.53, & is dn $6.37 versus the previous week
• CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.06 on Fri. to $78.54.  December futures firmed $0.825 but are $11.515 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®