HIGHLIGHTS
· TRENDS—Lower: CU, -$.0350; SQ, -$.0375; WU, -$.0025; KWU, unch. Dely: SBM, 2, SBO, 21; ETOH, 16; HRW, 18; SRW, 31
· What caught my eye: China has already sold more reserve corn than all of LY; CNG&OIC raises corn deficit for LY and TY by 34 MMT; they ARE buying U.S. corn; attache sees feed needs up 9 ½ MMT/4.6% on strong livestock/poultry demand
· Profit-taking; economic reality vs recent equity performances. Asia: Mostly lower--Nikkei, -0.44%; Shanghai, +0.37%; Hang Seng, -1.38%; EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -1.45%; FTSE, -1.36%; CAC, -1.25%. WALL STREET: Futures, lower --DOW, -316; S&P, -30; NAS, -58. EXTERNALS: Aug crude, -$0.63 @ $40.00; Gold: -$8.90 @ $1,785; Sep $ Index, +0.283 @ 96.965
· T-storm Weather®: above-normal temps dominate U.S. crop areas through Thu. as highs around 90F & lows around 70F continue, which will mark at least 14 consecutive days with above-normal temps on U.S. corn & soybean production. Thunderstorms focus on northern & western corn & soybeans into Thu. as some waves of energy pass, followed by scattered thunderstorms across a wide area Thu.-Fri. when a cool front passes, but only some pockets of heavy rain are expected in / near MN & eastern NE
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CU, dn $.0350 @ $3.43; CZ, dn $.0450 @ $3.5175. The funds bought 10 K Monday but weather enthusiasm waned during the day
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SQ, dn $.0375 @ $8.9475; SX, dn $.05 @ $9.0125. Funds: Bot 7 SB, SBM & SBO NA. Board crush: $0.71 (Q/Q), 0; LY, $1.00
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WU, dn $.0025 @ $4.93; WZ, dn $.0075 @ $5.0025. Fund buying following the weekend totaled 2 K
CORN/SORGHUM
· USDA estimates U.S. corn silking as of July 5 at 10% vs. 7% last year and the 5-year avg. of 16%; updated corn crop conditions peg combined Good/Excellent rating at 71% compared to 73% last week and 57% last year
· T-storm Weather®: following a brief period of cooling this weekend, sharp warming unfolds across the central U.S., turning most corn areas much warmer July 13-14, then hot over July 15-20; a much drier period occurs at that time
· ATI Research: U.S. ending stocks of corn for 20/21 pegged at 2.764 bbu compared to the USDA forecast of 3.323 bbu
· T-storm Weather®: below-normal rainfall affects most corn in Ukraine over the next 10 to 14 days as areas of high pressure limit rainfall. Slightly warmer than normal temperatures are also forecast
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA estimates U.S. soybeans blooming as of July 5 at 31% vs. 8% last year and the 5-year average of 24%; updated soybean crop conditions peg combined Good/Excellent rating at 71% unch versus last week but above 53% last year
· T-storm Weather®: following a brief period of cooling this weekend, sharp warming unfolds across the central U.S., turning most soybeans much warmer July 13-14, then hot over July 15-20; a much drier period occurs at that time
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean ending stocks for 20/21 pegged at 0.515 bbu compared to the USDA forecast of 0.395 bbu
· T-storm Weather®: additional scattered thunderstorms occur through Wed. across spring wheat areas of Canada
· ATI Research: winter wheat crop est. 1.234 bbu (HRW, 0.721; SRW, 0.288; & White, 0.225); HRS crop est. at 0.517 bbu
ENERGY
· Mixed: CLQ20, -$0.63 @ $40.00; EBU, -$0.46 @ $42.64; EBU-QCLU, +$0.17; RBQ, -.0049; NGQ, +.058; HOQ, -.0187
· Chicago ethanol soared $.1450 to $1.53; basis, weaker: NYC, -$.0650 @ +$.0800; Gulf, -$.0650 @ +$.03; Dallas, -$.08 @ +$.02; Tampa, -$.0650 @ +$.13; LA, -$.0750 @ +$.18
· Ethanol RIN values, weaker: 2019’s, -1.1250 @ 43- 44; 2020’s: -0.1250 @ 44 ½ -46 ½ ; ;    
· The Aug RBOB/August ethanol spread inverted further, gaining $.0184 to -$.0692, premium ethanol
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
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Choice boxed beef gained $0.02 on Monday to $205.46, but is still down $2.90 versus a week ago
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5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was dn $1.34 v. last week at $94.87/cwt, and is dn $16.37 v. last year
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The mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $2.13 on Mon. to $64.33, but is still $0.02 higher versus last week
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Current nearby board hog crush value is $22.62/cwt vs. last week’s $25.66, last month’s $23.87 & last year’s $37.85
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®
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