HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Lower: CN, -$.02; SN, -$.02; WN, -$.0375; KWN, -$.0075

·       What caught my eye: One would expect the USDA to trim back its U.S. 19-20 U.S. soybean export forecast on Thursday  . . . shipments of 31/week are needed and have averaged just 14/week the past several weeks.  A cut of at least 50 seems likely

·       Stocks retreat as investors realize still much uncertainty ahead.  Asia: Mostly firm-- Nikkei, -0.38%; Shanghai, +0.62%; Hang Seng, +1.13%; EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -2.11%; FTSE, -1.92%; CAC, -2.03%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Down--DOW, -319; S&P, -31.75; NAS, -58.25.   EXTERNALS: July crude, -$0.95 @ $37.24; Gold: +$10.50 @ $1,716; Sep $ Index, +0.290 @ 96.845

·       T-storm Weather®: moderate to heavy rain affects the western half of corn and soybeans today as a strong cold front and the remnant of Tropical Depression Cristobal merge; 1.00" to 3.00" totals with wettest weather in MO, eastern IA, and potentially eastern MN.  Note that dryness also breaks in eastern SD from this event (and it broke Sat.-Sun. in ND).  On the other hand, rains will likely be limited in the eastern Corn Belt where topsoil dryness has emerged in parts of IN, MI, and OH

• CN, dn $.02 @ $3.3175; CU, dn $.05 @ $3.3625.  Fund buying on Monday was said to be 6 K                     
• ​ SN, dn $.02 @ $8.6275; SQ, dn $.02 @ $8.6550.  Funds: sold 3 SB, 1 SBM, 1 SBO.  Board crush: $0.79 (N/N), +1; LY, $1.32
• WN, dn $.0375 @ $5.0775; WU, dn $.0425 @ $5.13.  The funds started the week off selling 2 K          

CORN/SORGHUM

·​       USDA estimates U.S. corn planting progress as of June 7 at 97% vs. 78% last year and the 5-year average of 94%;   2020 corn crop conditions peg combined Good/Excellent rating at 75% vs. 74% last week and 59% last year

·       T-storm Weather®: after rain ends on Wednesday across the U.S. Corn Belt, a cool and dry pattern dominates for five consecutive days as highs in the 70s-80s coincide with lows in the 50s-60s (averaging -4°F to -8°F from normal)

·       USDA WASDE report on June 11: avg. guess for 2020 U.S. corn crop, 15.917 bbu (range: 15.460-15.995)

·       USDA WASDE report: avg. trade guess 19/20 U.S. corn carryout, 2.163 bbu; avg. guess 20/21, 3.356 bbu

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA est. U.S. soybean planting progress on June 7 at 86% vs. 54% last year & the 5-year avg. of 79%; crop conditions peg combined Good/Excellent rating at 72% vs. 70% last week (no comparison to 2019 due to late planting)

·       USDA WASDE report on June 11: avg. guess 2020 U.S. soybean crop, 4.138 bbu (range: 4.118-4.273)

·       USDA WASDE report: avg. trade guess 19/20 U.S. soybean carryout, 0.578 bbu; avg. guess 20/21, 0.429 bbu

·       T-storm Weather®: numerous rains over the next 10 to 14 days ease dryness across winter wheat in the western E.U., and keep the eastern E.U. moist within a mild period

·       USDA Crop Production report June 11: avg. guess for 2020 U.S. all winter wheat crop is 1.239 bbu (range 1.211-1.290)  

·       USDA WASDE report: avg. trade guess 19/20 U.S. all wheat carryout, 0.980 bbu; avg. guess 20/21, 0.901 bbu

ENERGY

·       Down: CLN20, -$0.95 @ $37.24; EBQ, -$0.76 @ $40.03; EBQ-QCLQ, +$0.13; RBN, -.0068; NGN, +.025; HON, -.0049

·       Chicago ethanol was again higher, up $.0105 to $1.2655; basis, mostly weaker:  NYC, -$.0055 @ +$.0050; Gulf, +$.0120 @ +$.1020; Dallas, +$.00950 @ +$.1145; Tampa, -$.0105 @ +$.2045; LA, -$.0155 @ +$.2095

·       Ethanol RIN values, steady/lower: 2019’s, unch @ 42 - 44; 2020’s: -0.75 @ 43 -44 ½                                    &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;    

·       The July RBOB/July ethanol inverse widened $.0316 on Monday to $.0500/gallon, premium ethanol  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                  ​                     ​

• Choice boxed beef declined $6.90 on Monday to $254.58, and is $86.57 lower compared to a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was dn $3.32 v. last week at $112.39/cwt, and is dn $1.37 v. last year
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $2.03 on Mon. to $69.95, and is $10.50 lower versus the previous week
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $25.63/cwt vs. last week’s $24.76, last month’s $30.40 & last year’s $44.00

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®