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TRENDS Lower CK, Down 4, SK, Down 4, WK, Down 1

March 5, 2020 07:07 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Lower:  CK, -$.04; SK, -$.0175; WK, -$.0050; KWK, -$.01.  Del’y: SBM, 83; SBO, 106; RR, 24; ETOH, 29; HRW, 8; SB, 346 

·       What caught my eye: Will soybean sales meet trade expectations?  The weekly average since the 1st of January has been an unexciting 20.7 million with a single week high of 29.0

·       Buckle up, looks like another down day on Wall Street.  Asia: Up: Nikkei, +1.09%; Shanghai, +1.99%; Hang Seng, +2.08%; EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -1.18%; FTSE, -1.67%; CAC, -1.60%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Much Lower--DOW, -429; S&P, -55.25; NAS, -156.50.  EXTERNALS: April crude, +$0.28 $47.05Gold: +$3.60 $1,647; Mar $ Index, -.192 @ 97.115

  • T-storm Weather®: mainly dry and hot weather continue through Monday in Argentina.  A seasonably-cooler period follows and helps to trigger scattered thunderstorms over a multi-day period next week, breaking the sudden lack of rain since mid -February. Conversely, little to no rain is expected on the southern ~40% of second-crop corn in Brazil over the next 10 to 14 days (compared to normal rainfall of ~3.00”), while corn in Goiás and Mato Grosso remains between driest and wettest weather
  • CK, dn $.04 @ $3.81; CN, dn $.0250 @ $3.8375.  The funds continue buying with another 8 K in the books at mid-week   
  • SK, dn $0.0175 @ $9.0550; SN, dn $.0175 @ $9.1350.  Funds: Bot 3 SB; 2 SBM; 5 SBO.  Board crush: $0.99 (K/K), 0; LY, $0.98 
  • WK, dn $.0050 @ $5.1775; WN, dn $.0025 @ $5.1925.  The funds were liquidating Wednesday, with 5 K sold                             

CORN/SORGHUM

· ​      Export Sales report at 7:30 am CST for the week ending Feb. 27; trade expects 28-47 mbu for 2019/20 corn sales

·       T-storm Weather®: it is most likely for areas of high pressure to continue to suppress rainfall over the next two weeks in southern Brazil, ultimately leaving safrinha (double crop) corn in the region sharply drier than normal

·       Consultant: any impact from the current hot and dry weather in Argentina will probably be felt in the later planted corn, that will still need additional moisture for another 1-2 months

·       Ethanol grind: Total of 1,079,000 barrels/day for week ending Feb. 28—up 2.4% v. prior week and up 5.4% v. 2019

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report at 7:30 am CST for the week ending Feb. 27; trade expects 18-37 mbu for 2019/20 soybean sales; 225-400 for 19/20 soymeal; and 8-30 for 19/20 soyoil

·       T-storm Weather®: better rain chances for Argentina soybeans begin March 10-11; most likely scenario is 1.00”- 2.00” of rain over March 10-17, with highest coverage and amounts in southern areas (including dry areas of Buenos Aires)

·       Consultant: Brazil soybean harvest was 43.1% complete at end of last week v. 44.2% avg., according to Arc Mercosul

·       Export Sales report at 7:30 am CST for the week ending Feb. 27; trade expects 13-22 mbu for 2019/20 wheat sales

·       T-storm Weather®: temperatures stay mild through at least mid-month in the U.S., and occasional rains resume in SRW wheat areas of the Corn Belt and Delta Monday

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLJ20+$0.28 $47.05; EBK, +$0.40 @ $51.53; EBK-QCLK+.11; RBJ, +.0063; NGJ, +.02; HOJ, -.0014

·       Chicago ethanol eased $.00600 to $1.2740; basis, weaker:  NYC, -$.0090 @ $.0860; Gulf, -$.0090 @ $.111; Dallas, -$.0040 @ +$.0860; Tampa, -$.0040 @ +$.1960; LA, -$.0090 @ +$.1960

·       Ethanol RINs values, weaker: 2018’s, -0.375 @ 28 ½-30 ¼; 2019’s, -0.50 @ 31 -32 12/; 2020’s, -0.50 @ 34 ½ -36 ½                                         &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                               

·       The April RBOB/March ethanol spread edged out $.0012 to $.2715/gallon on Wednesday       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                  ​;     

  • Choice boxed beef was 20-cents higher on Wednesday at $206.82, and is up 48-cents compared to a week ago 
  • Light cash cattle trade was noted on Wed. in the South at $113—$2 lower than the previous week's weighted average      
  • ·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell 16-cents on Wed. to $64.68 but is still up $1.32 versus last week

    • CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.24 on Wed. to $56.46.  April futures were $0.750 higher & are $7.84 above the index

    Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

     



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