HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Lower:  CK, -$.0175; SK, -$.1050; WK, -$.09; KWK, -$.05 

·       What caught my eye: Yesterday’s surprising corn acreage # of 97.5 million was 600 K above the top end of trade expectations and market thinking seems to be that this will be the highest number printed for the season

·       Markets react to WH comments on possible coronavirus fatalities .  Asia: Down-- Nikkei, -4.50%; Shanghai, -0.57%; Hang Seng, -2.19%; EUROPE: Down—DAX, -2.99%; FTSE, -3.38%; CAC, 3.23%.  WALL STREET: Futures, there’s a trend here--DOW, -652; S&P, -78.25; NAS, -200.  EXTERNALS: May crude, +0.07 @ $20.55; Gold: +$11.70 @ $1,608; Sep $ Index, +0.573 @ 99.665

·       T-storm Weather®: most corn in Brazil will be fairly dry through at least Sunday.  Some thunderstorms follow in driest southern areas Mon.-Tue. when a wave of energy passes, but we are only forecasting scattered thunderstorms and not substantial rainfall that is indicated by the GFS suite.  Later next week, a cool front shifts into central Brazil, which may develop a wetter period on second-corn in Goiás and Mato Grosso, but the setup will take many days to resolve and our forecast remains drier than its output

• CK, dn $.0175 @ $3.39; CN, dn $.0225 @ $3.4375  After the dust settled on a supportive (stx)/bearish (acreage), funds were even    
• SK, dn $0.1050 @ $8.7550; SN, dn $.1050 @ $8.79.  Funds: Bot 2 SB, 2 SBO, sold 3 SBM.  Board crush: $1.17 (K/K), -12; LY, $0.99 
• WK, dn $.09 @ $5.5975; WN, dn $.0525 @ $5.5725.  Report day:  funds buy 2 K              

     CORN/SORGHUM

· ​      T-storm Weather®: for second-corn in Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná, Brazil, mainly dry and hot weather prevail through at least today.  A rapidly-weakening cool front then passes Thu., but only triggers isolated thunderstorms

·       Consultant: the 2019/20 Argentina corn estimate was left unchanged this week at 49.0 MMT, with a neutral to lower bias going forward

·       ATI Research: U.S. corn export prospects are still bright; bias on near-term shipments remains at 35-45 mbu per week

·       U.S. Energy Information Administration report scheduled to be released at 9:30 am CDT 

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather®: in Argentina, a strong cool front triggers widespread rain today, resulting in 0.50”-1.50” on most soybeans, slowing harvest.  Fairly dry & cool weather then follows for at least 7-10 days, improving harvest conditions

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean est. was left unch this week at 51.0 MM, with a neutral to lower bias going forward

·       ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. wheat exports remain at 15-20 mbu per week  

·       T-storm Weather®: temperatures plummet across all U.S. HRW wheat later this week, with readings dipping well below freezing Fri.-Sat.; minimums drop to the mid-20s from KS north, but only slightly below freezing in OK and TX

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLK20, +$0.07 @ $20.55; EBM, -$0.78 @ $23.25; EBM-QCLM, -$.67; RBK, -.0532; NGK, +.006; HOK, -.0187

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +4.0 (+10.5); Gasoline, +1.9 (+6.1); Distillates, +1.0 (-4.5).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 0.930 mbpd (range: 0.875-0.968).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 24.444 mb (range 23.974-24.790)

·       Chicago ethanol lost $.0385 yesterday to $.8565/gallon; basis, firm:  NYC, +$.00475 @ $.08975; Gulf, +$.0035 @ $.1035; Dallas, +$.0085 @ +$.16350; Tampa, +$.0385 @ +$.2435; LA, +$.0385 @ +$.1435

·       Ethanol RINs values, higher: 2018’s, +1.50 @ 15 ½ -17 ½; 2019’s, +1.75 @ 19 ½; 2020’s: +2.25 @ 26 ½ -28                                   ​;                        ​                         ​                        &​nbsp;               

&m​iddot;       The April RBOB/April ethanol inverse narrowed slightly, $.0033 to $.3378, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             <​wbr>               &​nbsp;          

• Choice boxed beef plummeted $7.82 on Tuesday to $243.15, and is $13.16 lower compared to last week
• Tuesday’s week-to-week decline in choice boxed beef of $13.16 is the largest since July 3, 2017
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $5.68 on Tue. to $64.32, & is $16.76 lower versus a week ago
• CME Lean Hog Index was dn $0.41 on Tue. at $65.15.  April futures fell $1.750 and are $12.950 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®