HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Lower:  CH, -$.0025; SH, -$.1150; WH, -$.0325; KWH, -$.0275.  Del’y: SBM, 1,237; SBO, 1,107; RR, 427; HRW, 9 

·       What caught my eye: Aarrggh!  7-year seasonal low . . . (1) # of grain vessels due at the Gulf the next 10 days—33 (52 is average); (2) # loaded the past week—27 (41 is average) and (3) the # due to arrive within the next 10 days—39, 20 less than 5-year average

·       Simply put . . . Coronavirus.  Asia: DOWN: Nikkei, -3.67%; Shanghai, -3.71%; Hang Seng, -2.42%; EUROPE: DOWN—DAX, -3.58%; FTSE, -3.01%; CAC, -2.75%.  WALL STREET: Futures, DOWN--DOW, -193; S&P, -19; NAS, -60.  EXTERNALS: April crude, -$1.57 @ $45.52; Gold: -$11.20 @ $1,631; Mar $ Index, -.351 @ 98.110

• Weather: Below normal rains are forecast for southern Brazil and the Center West areas through Wednesday. Moisture totals are forecast to be greatest in the Brazilian states of Tocantins, western Bahia, and northeastern Mato Grosso where three to five inches are forecast. Conditions in Argentina are forecast to be dry through Wednesday with highs forecast to be in the upper 80s and 90s today and then mostly in the 90s Friday into the middle of next week
• CH, dn $0.0025 @ $3.6425; CK, dn $.0050 @ $3.6750.  The funds sold 20 K   
• SH, dn $0.1150 @ $8.7475; SK, dn $.0950 @ $8.8625.  Funds: sold 2 SB; 3 SBO, bot 4 SBM.  Board crush: $0.84, +4; LY, $0.95,-; 
• WH, dn $.0325 @ $5.26; WK, dn $.0525 @ $5.2225.  Fund selling estimated at 8 K yesterday                          <​/li>

CORN/SORGHUM

• Corn export sales were 34 mbu, towards the low end of the 31-51 range with 26+ per week now needed.  Milo sales of 17.5 million were a marketing year high with Unknown (China?) taking 12.8 and 4.7 designated for China

·       DJF corn exports are on track to reach 340 mbu (500 LY) and markets are optimistic dwindling supplies of Ukraine corn and Brazil essentially a non-factor until July will push MAM shipments to 25-30 mbu above LY’s 588 total

·       CZ2020 made another contract low yesterday as it closed down $.04 at $3.77 ½ per bushel

·       The Argentine corn crop is now estimated at 50.0 MMT according to the BA Exchange, up 1 and matching the USDA

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       SX20/CZ20 closed at 2.42 Thursday, its highest level since January 10^th and versus 2.41 a year ago to the day

·       Soybean export sales were very disappointing at 12.5, below both the 22-33 trade range & 21.7/wk implied pace. China did buy 2.6 million but Unknown cancelled/switched 6.5 mbu TW

·       Unshipped SB sales declined 9 to 176 million, an 8-year low.  China’s 15 mbu total is down 200+ from LY

·       Old crop wheat export sales were a respectable 14.0 (trade: 15-22) with 11.2 per week needed.  HRS captured about ½ of this week’s sales total with 7.4 million sold, followed by HRW at 4.1 and White Wheat at 1.8

• Soybeans closed $.0525 higher yesterday, led by a $5.60/1.9% gain in near-by soybean meal as financial upheavel in Argentina has some of the opinion another crusher will default—sending meal business to the U.S.
• The BA Grain Exchange upped its Argentine SB production estimate 1.4 to 54.5 million MT.  The USDA is at 53.0

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLJ20, -$1.57 @ $45.52; EBJ, -$1.26 @ $50.91; EBJ-QCLJ, +.20; RBJ, -.0353; NGJ, -.058; HOJ, -.0123

·       Chicago ethanol was $.03 lower at $1.25; basis, mixed:  NYC, +$.0050 @ $.10; Gulf, -$.005 @ $.10; Dallas, +$.0025 @ +$.10; Tampa, unch @ +$.20; LA, +$.0050 @ +$.22

·       Ethanol RINs values, firmer: 2018’s, +3.00 @ 28-32; 2019’s, +5.75 @ 34 -38; 2020’s, +1.50 @ 38 -42                                    &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;         

·  &nb​sp;    The March RBOB/March ethanol spread was again narrower, $.0233 at $.1566/gallon       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             ​             &n​bsp;            

• Choice boxed beef declined $0.80 on Thursday to $205.54, and is still up $1.04 compared to a week ago
• An Iowa feeder cattle auction 500-700 lb steers trade $10-$15 down last week; 650-800 lbs, $5-$8 lower

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $0.22 on Thu. to $63.14 and is 15-cents lower versus last week

·       USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price increased $0.21 on Thursday to $49.95