Skip to Main Content
Print

TRENDS Lower CH, Unchanged, SH, Down 2, WH, Down 4

January 6, 2020 07:14 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Lower: CH, -$.0025; SH, -$.0250; WH, -$.0525; KWH, -$.0475. Del’y: SBM, 1,357; SBO, 282; RR, 0; SB, 214 

·       What caught my eye: The pace of corn exports/sales point to a reduction in the forecast on Friday but will the USDA go with unchanged in hopes the Phase I deal will eventually include 100 mbu or so of corn?

·       Mideast risks reverberate around the world, most indices are lower. Asia: Lower: Nikkei, -1.91%; Shanghai, -0.01%; Hang Seng, -0.79%; EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -1.62%; FTSE, -1.05%; CAC, -1.15%.  WALL STREET: Futures lower—DOW, -187; S&P, -20.75; NAS, -67.25.  EXTERNALS: Mar crude: +$0.77 $63.59; Gold: +$27.60 $1,580; $ Index, +.283 @ 96.550

·       T-storm Weather®: widespread & heavy rain is still needed in Brazil to ease dryness & areas of drought.  Thunderstorms affect all areas at varying points over the next two weeks with near- & below-normal rainfall central & north to maintain at least some concern, while a wetter period eases dryness south with time (though most rain is likely 5-7 days out in dry Rio Grande do Sul).  In Argentina, a stormy & cool period further eases dryness on corn & soybeans with time as drought further diminishes

  • CH, dn $.0025 @ $3.8625; CK, dn $.0025 @ $3.9275.  Funds sold 8 K as the market reacted to rising Mid-East tensions        
  • SH, dn $.0250 @ $9.39; SK, dn $.0225 @ $9.53.  Funds: Sold 7 K SB, 6 SBM, 3 SBO.  Board crush: $1.04, +2; LY, $0.97,-3; 
  • WH, dn $.0525 @ $5.4825; WK, dn $.0550 @ $5.5225.  Fund liquidation on Friday totaled 5 K           

CORN/SORGHUM

·       ​Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Corn, 43.8 mbu needed; 16.1 last week.  Milo—2.2 needed; 0.2 last week

  • T-storm Weather®: in Argentina, above-normal rainfall of 1.50” to 3.50” impacts corn over the next two weeks, while keeping temperatures moderately cool (maximums in the 80s) through at least mid-month

·       Consultant: the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange late last week indicated farmers in Argentina had planted 83.5% of their corn.  The most significant planting progress occurred in the provinces of Córdoba and Santiago del Estero

·       Ethanol grind: Total of 1,066,000 barrels/day for week end Dec. 27—dn 17 thou v. previous week but up 5.4% v. 2018

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Soybeans, 29.0 mbu needed; 33.5 last week

·       The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange late last week pegged soybean planting at 84.3%, which is down compared to 89.6% last year

·       T-storm Weather®: dryness is no longer a concern for soybeans in Argentina because only 21% of production was drier than normal over the last 30 days

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Wheat, 20.1 mbu needed; 11.5 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: heavy water-equivalent totals (2.00”-5.00”) accumulate the next 2 weeks on most U.S. SRW wheat

·       Buenos Aires Grain Exchange last week noted that wheat harvest was at 92.1%; production est. remains at 18.5 MMT

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLH20, +$0.77 $63.59; EBH, +$1.00 @ $69.60; EBH-QCLH+.24; RBH, +.0204; NGH, +.011; HOH, +.0074

·       Chicago ethanol was fell $.03125 to $1.30 Friday; basis values versus Chicago mostly firmer:  NYC, -.05875 @ $.12; Gulf, +.00125 @ $.11; Dallas, +.00625 @ +$.09; Tampa, +.01625 @ +$.2050; LA, +$.01125 @ +$.27

·       Ethanol RINs values were weaker: 2018’s, -.25 @ 4 ¾-5; 2019’s, -0.75 @ 7 ½ -8 ¾; 2020’s, -0.50 @ 14 -14 ½                                    ​;                        ​                                                  ​ 

·       The February RBOB/January ethanol spread gained almost $.06 ($.0598) to $.4038 on Friday as oil rallied       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                  ​                     ​

  • Choice boxed beef firmed 24-cents on Friday to $208.49 but is still 47-cents lower versus the previous week
  • Increased cash cattle trading developed on Fri., with prices in the South pegged at $124—up $2.00 vs. the prior week

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 10-cents on Fri. to $73.31 and is $1.17 lower versus a week ago

·         CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.89 on Fri. to $58.62.  February futures fell $3.000 but are still $9.930 above the index   

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

 



The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
...

[Message clipped]  View entire message
 
 
 
 
2 Attachments
 
 
 
 
​  
 
 
 
 
 

Back

 

936 South Moore Road, Rochelle, IL 61068
(815) 562 - 8723 | Fax: (815) 562 - 7543 | Privacy Policy

facebook twitter 100px-Instagram_logo_2016.svg LinkedIn

© Maplehurst Farms. All Rights Reserved. Disclaimer | View Mobile Site
The risk of loss in trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial.
You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.

Market, News and Weather information provided by

image001

 

close (X)