HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Lower: CH, -$.0025; SH, -$.0250; WH, -$.0525; KWH, -$.0475. Del’y: SBM, 1,357; SBO, 282; RR, 0; SB, 214 

·       What caught my eye: The pace of corn exports/sales point to a reduction in the forecast on Friday but will the USDA go with unchanged in hopes the Phase I deal will eventually include 100 mbu or so of corn?

·       Mideast risks reverberate around the world, most indices are lower. Asia: Lower: Nikkei, -1.91%; Shanghai, -0.01%; Hang Seng, -0.79%; EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -1.62%; FTSE, -1.05%; CAC, -1.15%.  WALL STREET: Futures lower—DOW, -187; S&P, -20.75; NAS, -67.25.  EXTERNALS: Mar crude: +$0.77 @ $63.59; Gold: +$27.60 @ $1,580; $ Index, +.283 @ 96.550

·       T-storm Weather®: widespread & heavy rain is still needed in Brazil to ease dryness & areas of drought.  Thunderstorms affect all areas at varying points over the next two weeks with near- & below-normal rainfall central & north to maintain at least some concern, while a wetter period eases dryness south with time (though most rain is likely 5-7 days out in dry Rio Grande do Sul).  In Argentina, a stormy & cool period further eases dryness on corn & soybeans with time as drought further diminishes

• CH, dn $.0025 @ $3.8625; CK, dn $.0025 @ $3.9275.  Funds sold 8 K as the market reacted to rising Mid-East tensions        
• SH, dn $.0250 @ $9.39; SK, dn $.0225 @ $9.53.  Funds: Sold 7 K SB, 6 SBM, 3 SBO.  Board crush: $1.04, +2; LY, $0.97,-3; 
• WH, dn $.0525 @ $5.4825; WK, dn $.0550 @ $5.5225.  Fund liquidation on Friday totaled 5 K           

CORN/SORGHUM

·       ​Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Corn, 43.8 mbu needed; 16.1 last week.  Milo—2.2 needed; 0.2 last week

• T-storm Weather®: in Argentina, above-normal rainfall of 1.50” to 3.50” impacts corn over the next two weeks, while keeping temperatures moderately cool (maximums in the 80s) through at least mid-month

·       Consultant: the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange late last week indicated farmers in Argentina had planted 83.5% of their corn.  The most significant planting progress occurred in the provinces of Córdoba and Santiago del Estero

·       Ethanol grind: Total of 1,066,000 barrels/day for week end Dec. 27—dn 17 thou v. previous week but up 5.4% v. 2018

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Soybeans, 29.0 mbu needed; 33.5 last week

·       The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange late last week pegged soybean planting at 84.3%, which is down compared to 89.6% last year

·       T-storm Weather®: dryness is no longer a concern for soybeans in Argentina because only 21% of production was drier than normal over the last 30 days

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Wheat, 20.1 mbu needed; 11.5 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: heavy water-equivalent totals (2.00”-5.00”) accumulate the next 2 weeks on most U.S. SRW wheat

·       Buenos Aires Grain Exchange last week noted that wheat harvest was at 92.1%; production est. remains at 18.5 MMT

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLH20, +$0.77 @ $63.59; EBH, +$1.00 @ $69.60; EBH-QCLH, +.24; RBH, +.0204; NGH, +.011; HOH, +.0074

·       Chicago ethanol was fell $.03125 to $1.30 Friday; basis values versus Chicago mostly firmer:  NYC, -.05875 @ $.12; Gulf, +.00125 @ $.11; Dallas, +.00625 @ +$.09; Tampa, +.01625 @ +$.2050; LA, +$.01125 @ +$.27

·       Ethanol RINs values were weaker: 2018’s, -.25 @ 4 ¾-5; 2019’s, -0.75 @ 7 ½ -8 ¾; 2020’s, -0.50 @ 14 -14 ½                                    ​;                        ​                                                  ​ 

·       The February RBOB/January ethanol spread gained almost $.06 ($.0598) to $.4038 on Friday as oil rallied       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                  ​                     ​

• Choice boxed beef firmed 24-cents on Friday to $208.49 but is still 47-cents lower versus the previous week
• Increased cash cattle trading developed on Fri., with prices in the South pegged at $124—up $2.00 vs. the prior week

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 10-cents on Fri. to $73.31 and is $1.17 lower versus a week ago

·         CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.89 on Fri. to $58.62.  February futures fell $3.000 but are still $9.930 above the index   

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®