HIGHLIGHTS
· TRENDS—Lower: CH, -$.0075; SH, -$.01; WH, -$.0150; KWH, -$.0150
· What caught my eye: 20/21 corn balance sheet . . . 2.6 bbu carry-out and the highest stx/use ratio (17.9%) since 04/05’s 19.8%. And, that’s with a sizable 275 mbu increased in feed/residual and a 375 mbu larger export program
· U.S. futures point to a positive start, no so w/ overseas bourses. Asia: Lower: Nikkei, -0.79%; Shanghai, -0.83%; Hang Seng, -0.73%; EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -1.19%; FTSE, -0.61%; CAC, -0.83%. WALL STREET: Futures, higher--DOW, +41; S&P, +15.59; NAS, +61. EXTERNALS: April crude, +$0.46 @ $49.43; Gold: +$0.50 @ $1,651; Mar $ Index, +.184 @ 98.080
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T-storm Weather®: Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to occur in northern Brazil into the early part of next week. Rain is forecast to impact southern Brazil today and Wednesday followed by dry weather. Below-normal rains are forecast to occur Argentina through Monday. Temperatures in Argentina are forecast to be 80s and 90s today and the 90s Friday with Saturday forecast to be in the 80s and 90s south and 90s and lower 100s north
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CH, dn $0.0075 @ $3.7175; CK, dn $.0050 @ $3.76. The funds were said to be even in yesteday’s trade
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SH, dn $.01 @ $8.78; SK, dn $.0025 @ $8.8775. Funds: bot 2 SB; even SBM, sold 3 SBO. Board crush: $0.73, -7; LY, $0.94
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WH, dn $.0150 @ $5.3750; WK, dn $.02 @ $5.35. Fund buying was estimated at 2 K Tuesday
CORN/SORGHUM
· Consultant: Brazil 2019/20 corn production est. remains at 100.0 MMT with a neutral bias going forward. He noted an estimated 50% of the safrinha (double crop) corn will be planted somewhat to extra late
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Consultant: Argentina estimate is unchanged at 49.0 with a neutral to higher bias; soil moisture situation improved 6 point with 94% of the area now rated favorable to optimum
· Ethanol margins: $0.14 per gallon—up vs. $0.09 last week and below $0.18 in 2019. EIA report at 9:30 am CST
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ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. corn exports is in the 30-35 mbu per week range compared to 30.1 mbu last year
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Consultant: Brazil 2019/20 soybean production est. is unchanged at 125.0 MMT, with a neutral to higher bias. Harvest at 34% is about average but well off the 2019 pace when 46% had been combined
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Weather: Argentina saw ample rains in northern region with some flooding. However, likely had minimal impact. There is some concern over the near and longer-term forecasts which could cause some moisture stress
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ATI Research: Brazil’s export line-up of 370 mbu is up 88 from a year ago; should support Mar exports of 330-360
ENERGY
· Lower: CLJ20, -$0.49 @ $46.43; EBJ, -$0.86 @ $54.08; EBJ-QCLJ, -.39; RBJ, -.0369; NGJ, +.019; HOJ, -.0400
· EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +2.0 (+1.3); Gasoline, -2.2 (+0.1); Distillates, -1.7 (-0.7). Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.041 mbpd (range: 1.035-1.050). Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 24.776 mb (range 24.591-25.156)
· Chicago ethanol was fell $.0150 to $1.3075; basis, unch to weaker: NYC, -$.06850 @ $.0240; Gulf, -$.0685 @ $.0440; Dallas, -$.06850 @ +$.0240; Tampa, -$.0585 @ +$.1190; LA, -$.0535 @ +$.1340
· Ethanol RINs values, weaker: 2018’s, -1.00 @ 23-27; 2019’s, -1.25 @ 26 ½ -28; 2020’s, -1.25 @ 32 -34   ;  
· The March RBOB/March ethanol spread closed $.0597 narrower at $.2424/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
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Choice boxed beef rose $0.40 on Tuesday to $207.47 and is $1.34 higher versus last week
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Light cash cattle trade developed on with north dressed at $187, down $3 from LW; Southern live, $115, $5 lower
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $1.36 on Tue. to $62.85 and is $3.90 lower versus a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index was $0.38 higher Tue. at $54.07. April futures were $0.050 higher & are $10.60 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®
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