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TRENDS Lower CH, Down 3, SH, Down 8, WH, Down 6

January 3, 2020 08:29 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Lower: CH, -$.02; SH, -$.0625; WH, -$.05; KWH, -$.0650. Del’y: SBM, 1,503; SBO, 359; RR, 27; SB, 275 

·       What caught my eye: A little worried about non-Chinese protein demand as so far this year.  While shipments of beans to China are up an estimated 27% (4.3 MMT), non-PRC business is 18%/2.7 MMT lower

·       U.S. takes out world’s #1 “bad guy”; oil soars over geopolitical fears. Asia: Easier: Nikkei, NA; Shanghai, -0.05%; Hang Seng, -0.32%; EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -1.76%; FTSE, -0.51%; CAC, -0.59%.  WALL STREET: Futures are NEGATIVE—DOW, -340; S&P, -41.25; NAS, -130.25.  EXTERNALS: Mar crude: +$2.39 $63.34; Gold: +$6.80 $1,525; $ Index, +.226 @ 97.072

·       T-storm Weather®: heavy rain over Dec. 27-30 dramatically improved soil moisture in Argentina, and thunderstorms resume from Sunday forward to limit concerns.  On the other hand, the coverage of dryness on soybeans (and first-crop corn) in Brazil has become impressive; the Outlook over the next two weeks in Brazil is mixed with rain for all areas (namely central and north into early next week, while southern areas turn wetter next week), but most likely remain drier than normal into mid-month

  • CH, dn $.02 @ $3.8950; CK, dn $.0250 @ $3.9550.  Heavy fund buying to begin the year, 7 K       
  • SH, dn $.0625 @ $9.5025; SK, dn $.0575 @ $9.6375.  Funds: Bot 2 SB, 2 SBM, 5 SBO.  Board crush: $1.02, +6; LY, $0.96,-3; 
  • WH, dn $.05 @ $5.5525; WK, dn $.05 @ $5.5825.  The funds bought 4 K yesterday          

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CST.  Trade expects 12-30 mbu for 19/20 corn

·       Consultant: full-season corn in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil (far south) has been under moisture stress.  Full-season corn from all states accounts for 26% of Brazil corn production, with safrinha (double crop) accounting for 73%

  • T-storm Weather®: dry weather occurs the next 5 days for full-season corn in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.  An uptick in rain starts Jan. 7-8 & continues the following week, likely producing 1.50”-2.50” over Jan. 8-15 (normal is 3.00”-4.00”)
  • The EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report will be released today at 10:00 am CST

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 13-37 for 19/20 soybeans; 75-250 for 19/20 soymeal; and 5-30 for 19/20 soyoil

·       Consultant: Argentina 2019/20 soybean crop est. is unch at 52.0 MMT with a neutral bias going forward.  The drier areas in the southern half of the country received some good rains over the weekend and more rain is in the forecast

·       T-storm Weather®: 30-day dryness coverage for Argentina soybeans fell 63% in a week, leaving 13% drier than normal

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 9-29 mbu for 19/20 all wheat

·       Chicago SRW March wheat futures on Thursday traded to $5.67 ½—highest price for the contract since June 28

ENERGY

·       UP!: CLH20, +$2.39 $63.34; EBH, +$2.68 @ $68.93; EBH-QCLH+.24; RBH, +.0609; NGH, -.011; HOH, +.0673

·       EIA Report Estimates were unavailable for crude oil, Gasoline, and Distillates.  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.073 mbpd (range: 1.060-1.085).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 21.752 mb (range 21.511-22.000)

·       Chicago ethanol was off $.02875 at $1.33125; basis values versus Chicago mostly firmer:  NYC, +.01875 @ $.17875; Gulf, -.00125 @ $.10875; Dallas, +.01875 @ +$.08375; Tampa, +.02875 @ +$.18875; LA, +$.01875 @ +$.25875

·       Ethanol RINs values were unch/weaker: 2018’s, unch @ 4 ½-5; 2019’s, -0.25 @ 8 ¼ -9; 2020’s, -0.75 @ 14 ½ -15                                                               &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                      

·       The February RBOB/January ethanol spread widened $.0214 to $.3442/gallon yesterday        

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY        &nb​sp;                  &nbs​p;           

  • ​ Choice boxed beef was $1.17 lower on Thursday at $208.25 and is down $1.90 compared to last week
  • Cash cattle trading has been very slow this week with asking prices at $125 in the South & $200 to $202 in the North

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $1.24 on Thu. to $73.41 but is down $1.87 vs. the previous week

·       CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.20 on Thu. to $57.73.  February futures firmed $0.175 and are $13.820 above the index   

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

 



The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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