Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.
HIGHLIGHTS
· TRENDS—Lower: CH, -$.0175; SH, -$.0075; WH, -$.0425; KWH, -$.0350
· What caught my eye: China’s SME (Soybean Meal Equivalent) imports estimated through December are running about 3 ½ MMT ahead of last year. The Rest of the Worlda, up just a ¼ of a million MT, or about ½ the 13-14 to 17-18 average
· China returns from Lunar New Year Holiday, “adjusts!”. Asia: Lower: Nikkei, -1.01%; Shanghai, -7.72%; Hang Seng, +0.17%; EUROPE: Firm—DAX, +0.28%; FTSE, +0.57%; CAC, +0.37%. WALL STREET: Futures, Higher—DOW, +124; S&P, +15.5; NAS, +50. EXTERNALS: March crude, +$0.30 @ $51.86; Gold: -$4.30 @ $1,584; Mar $ Index, +.297 @ 97.5100
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T-storm Weather®: ideal weather for corn and soybeans unfolds this week in Argentina as a slow-moving system interacts with a muggy air mass to produce heavy rain, and then an extended period of coolness. In Brazil, a mix of weather continues as heavy rain in the central and north this week aids later-planted crops at the expense of sluggish harvesting and planting, followed by a drier period
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CH, up $.0175 @ $3.7950; CK, dn $.0175 @ $3.8475. The funds sold 3 K on Friday—deja v, demand concerns, coronavirus
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SH, dn $.0075 @ $8.7175 SK, dn $.0050 @ $8.8625. Funds: sold 4 K SB; 3 SBM & 8 K SBO. Board crush: $0.97, -5; LY, $0.99,-;
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WH, dn $.0425 @ $5.4950; WK, dn $.0450 @ $5.48. Funds were sellers, again. 5 K on Friday
CORN/SORGHUM
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Corn, 44.4 mbu needed; 26.3 last week. Milo—2.4 needed; 5.6 last week
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T-storm Weather®: in Argentina, a large and slow-moving system interacts with a hot (and muggy) air mass to produce heavy rainfall over Tue.-Thu. of 1.50” to 3.00”, improving topsoil and subsoil moisture in all corn areas
· Buenos Aires Grain Exchange last week indicated that after a week with good weather conditions, corn planting in Argentina has begun its final stage. The unplanted area is located in the north of the national agricultural area
· Outstanding export sales of U.S. corn as of Jan. 23 were 434 mbu, which is 78 mbu or 15% lower than last year
· The corn base price for 2020 crop insurance will be set Feb. 3-28 utilizing the December 2020 corn futures contract
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Soybeans, 27.4 mbu needed; 38.2 last week
· Buenos Aires Grain Exchange last week reported most of the first-crop soybeans are defining yields, while second-crop soybeans are at the beginning of flowering. Moisture condition ranges from adequate to ideal
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T-storm Weather®: heavy rainfall over Tue.-Thu. produces 1.50”-3.00” across Argentina soybean areas
· The soybean base price for 2020 crop insurance will be set Feb. 3-28 utilizing November 2020 soybean futures
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Wheat, 21.0 mbu needed; 8.2 last week
· T-storm Weather®: Areas of rain & snow this week gradually ease dryness for wheat in Russia, Ukraine & the E.U.
ENERGY
· Mixed: CLH20, +$0.30 @ $51.86; EBJ, +$0.01 @ $56.40; EBJ-QCLJ, -.31; RBH, -.0035; NGH, +.032; HOH, -.0121
· Chicago ethanol was unchanged on Friday at $1.34; basis values versus Chicago were mixed: NYC, -$.0025 @ $.1050; Gulf,unch @ $.10; Dallas, up $.01 @ +$.0750; Tampa, up $.02 @ +$.18; LA, up $.02 @ +$.21
· Ethanol RINs values, firm: 2018’s, +0.50 @ 10 1/2 -11 ½; 2019’s, +0.25 @ 12 ¼ -12 ¾; 2020’s, +0.375 @ 18 ¼ -18 ¾        
·   The February RBOB/February ethanol spread tightened further on Friday , $.0050 to $.1487/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY
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Choice boxed beef eased 35-cents on Friday to $213.00 and is down $1.49 compared to last week
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Light cash cattle trade developed in the North on Fri., mostly at $194 ($4.00 lower than last week's weighted average)
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell 57-cents on Fri. to $68.95 and is down $7.53 compared to a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index was dn $0.42 on Fri. at $62.36. February futures declined $4.175 & are $5.235 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®
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