Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.

HIGHLIGHTS

·      TRENDS—Lower: CH, -$.0175; SH, -$.0075; WH, -$.0425; KWH, -$.0350 

·      What caught my eye: China’s SME (Soybean Meal Equivalent) imports estimated through December are running about 3 ½ MMT ahead of last year. The Rest of the Worlda, up just a ¼ of a million MT, or about ½ the 13-14 to 17-18 average

·      China returns from Lunar New Year Holiday, “adjusts!”.  Asia: Lower: Nikkei, -1.01%; Shanghai, -7.72%; Hang Seng, +0.17%; EUROPE: Firm—DAX, +0.28%; FTSE, +0.57%; CAC, +0.37%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Higher—DOW, +124; S&P, +15.5; NAS, +50.  EXTERNALS: March crude, +$0.30 @ $51.86; Gold: -$4.30 @ $1,584; Mar $ Index, +.297 @ 97.5100

• T-storm Weather®: ideal weather for corn and soybeans unfolds this week in Argentina as a slow-moving system interacts with a muggy air mass to produce heavy rain, and then an extended period of coolness.  In Brazil, a mix of weather continues as heavy rain in the central and north this week aids later-planted crops at the expense of sluggish harvesting and planting, followed by a drier period
• CH, up $.0175 @ $3.7950; CK, dn $.0175 @ $3.8475.  The funds sold 3 K on Friday—deja v, demand concerns, coronavirus    
• SH, dn $.0075 @ $8.7175 SK, dn $.0050 @ $8.8625.  Funds: sold 4 K SB; 3 SBM & 8 K SBO.  Board crush: $0.97, -5; LY, $0.99,-; 
• WH, dn $.0425 @ $5.4950; WK, dn $.0450 @ $5.48.  Funds were sellers, again.  5 K on Friday                  

CORN/SORGHUM

·      Ex​port Inspections released at 10 am CST; Corn, 44.4 mbu needed; 26.3 last week.  Milo—2.4 needed; 5.6 last week

• T-storm Weather®: in Argentina, a large and slow-moving system interacts with a hot (and muggy) air mass to produce heavy rainfall over Tue.-Thu. of 1.50” to 3.00”, improving topsoil and subsoil moisture in all corn areas

·      Buenos Aires Grain Exchange last week indicated that after a week with good weather conditions, corn planting in Argentina has begun its final stage.  The unplanted area is located in the north of the national agricultural area

·      Outstanding export sales of U.S. corn as of Jan. 23 were 434 mbu, which is 78 mbu or 15% lower than last year

·      The corn base price for 2020 crop insurance will be set Feb. 3-28 utilizing the December 2020 corn futures contract

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Soybeans, 27.4 mbu needed; 38.2 last week

·      Buenos Aires Grain Exchange last week reported most of the first-crop soybeans are defining yields, while second-crop soybeans are at the beginning of flowering.  Moisture condition ranges from adequate to ideal

• T-storm Weather®: heavy rainfall over Tue.-Thu. produces 1.50”-3.00” across Argentina soybean areas

·      The soybean base price for 2020 crop insurance will be set Feb. 3-28 utilizing November 2020 soybean futures

·      Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Wheat, 21.0 mbu needed; 8.2 last week

·      T-storm Weather®: Areas of rain & snow this week gradually ease dryness for wheat in Russia, Ukraine & the E.U.

ENERGY

·      Mixed: CLH20, +$0.30 @ $51.86; EBJ, +$0.01 @ $56.40; EBJ-QCLJ, -.31; RBH, -.0035; NGH, +.032; HOH, -.0121

·      Chicago ethanol was unchanged on Friday at $1.34; basis values versus Chicago were mixed:  NYC, -$.0025 @ $.1050; Gulf,unch @ $.10; Dallas, up $.01 @ +$.0750; Tampa, up $.02 @ +$.18; LA, up $.02 @ +$.21

·      Ethanol RINs values, firm: 2018’s, +0.50 @ 10 1/2 -11 ½; 2019’s, +0.25 @ 12 ¼ -12 ¾;  2020’s, +0.375 @ 18 ¼ -18 ¾                             &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;              

·  &n​bsp;   The February RBOB/February ethanol spread tightened further on Friday , $.0050 to $.1487/gallon       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                ​        

• ​ Choice boxed beef eased 35-cents on Friday to $213.00 and is down $1.49 compared to last week
• Light cash cattle trade developed in the North on Fri., mostly at $194 ($4.00 lower than last week's weighted average)

·      USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell 57-cents on Fri. to $68.95 and is down $7.53 compared to a week ago 

·      CME Lean Hog Index was dn $0.42 on Fri. at $62.36.  February futures declined $4.175 & are $5.235 below the index      

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®