Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Lower: CH, -$.0150; SF, -$.02; WH, -$0.0675; KWH, -$.0450. 

·       What caught my eye: Declining Brazil corn line-up/price advantage should generate some U.S. export demand . . . 69 mbu, down from 83 mbu just a few days and less than 50% of the year-ago total

·       Global equities are waffling; Phase I trade deal versus further delays? Mostly weaker—Nikkei, -0.55%; Shanghai, -0.18%; Hang Seng, +0.152%; EUROPE: Mostly firm—DAX, -0.176%; FTSE, +0.16%; CAC, +0.15%.  WALL STREET Futures—Firm—DOW, +17; S&P, +1.75; NAS, +4.50.  EXTERNALS: Feb crude: -$0.43 @ $60.44; Gold: -$0.40 @ $1,480; $ Index, +.112 @ 97.334

·       T-storm Weather®: 1.75”-3.50” of rainfall is forecast over the next two weeks across central & northern Brazil, but mainly from thunderstorms next week.  In southern Brazil, a round of thunderstorms occurs Sat.-Sun. with end result being 1.00”-3.00” over  next 5 days.  In Argentina, dry and increasingly hot weather dominate through Thursday.  A cool front then triggers thunderstorms Fri.-Sat., producing generalized rainfall of 0.50” to 1.00” across a wide area.  Dryness follows until scattered rain returns Dec. 25

• CH, dn $.0150 @ $3.8850; CK, dn $.0150 @ $3.95.  Fund buying continues, trade deal/short covering, 5 K Tuesday  
• SF, dn $.02 @ $9.2675; SH, dn $.02 @ $9.3875.  Funds: Bot 5 K SB, 2 K SBM, 10 K SBO.  Board crush: $1.08, +3; LY, $.85,-3; 
• WH, dn $.0675 @ $5.4950, WK, dn $.0750 @ $5.5150.  Fund buying again yesterday with 6 K purchased    

CORN/SORGHUM

·       T-storm Weather®: dry and unseasonably mild weather dominate the central U.S. over the next 10 days, which supports MI and WI corn harvesting.  Warmer than normal temps also gradually erode snow in the Dakotas

·       Consultant: Argentina 2019/20 corn production est. is unchanged this week at 47.5 MMT with a neutral to lower bias.  Weather in southern half of Argentina continues to be dry, causing some corn to pollinate under adverse conditions

• March 2020 corn futures on Tue. closed at $3.90—the highest settlement price for the contract since Nov. 5

·       Ethanol margins: $0.12 per gallon—dn vs. $0.20 last week but above $0.03 in 2018.  EIA report at 9:30 am CST

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Consultant: Brazil 2019/20 soybean production est. is unchanged at 123.0 MMT, with a neutral bias going forward

·       T-storm Weather®: wettest weather in central & northern Brazil over next two weeks is projected in Mato Grosso—the largest soybean producing state in Brazil.  Most rain occurs 5-10 days out as an upper-level high persists this week

• ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. all wheat exports is 12-16 mbu per week

·       T-storm Weather®: 0.50”-1.00” of rain over Dec. 26-Dec. 29 breaks the upcoming dry period for Midwest SRW wheat 

ENERGY

·       Weak: CLG20, -$0.43 @ $60.44; EBG, -$0.28 @ $65.82; EBG-QCLG, +.16; RBG, -.0224; NGG, -.026; HOG, -.0112

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -1.3 (+4.7); Gasoline, +2.2 (+5.6); Distillates, +0.3 (+3.7).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.071 mbpd (range: 1.065-1.075).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 21.877 mb (range 21.415-22.500)

·       Chicago ethanol down $.02625 at $1.37675; basis values versus Chicago were mostly firm:  NYC, -$.00625 @ $.13325; Gulf, +$.01875 @ $.15325; Dallas, +$.02625 @ +$.08325; Tampa, +$.02625 @ +$.1732; LA, +$.01125 @ +$.25325

·       Ethanol RINs values were firm: 2018’s, +.375 @ 6-7; 2019’s, +.125 @ 12 ¾ -13 ¼; 2020’s, unch @ 18 -20                                          ​;                         ​;                        ​                 

&​middot;       The January RBOB/January ethanol spread was $.0440 wider Tuesday, to $.3167/gallon      

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             <​wbr>                 &nbs​p;        

• ​ Choice boxed beef plummeted $4.27 on Tue. to $212.81—largest one-day drop since 9/11—& is dn $8.68 v. last week
• Estimates for Dec. 20 USDA Cattle on Feed: Dec. 1 on feed, 101.9%; Placed in Nov., 100.9%; Marketed in Nov., 97.3%

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 86-cents on Tue. to $78.08 and is $4.12 lower versus last week

·         CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.41 on Tue. to $60.22.  February futures fell $0.650 but are $9.630 above the index   

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®