HIGHLIGHTS

·      TRENDS—Lower: CH, -$.0150; SF, -$.0175;WH, -$0.0275; KWH, -$.0275.  Del’y: SBM, 506; SBO, 295 C, 79; ETOH, 0; HRW, 1

·      What caught my eye:  USDA boosts its wheat export forecast 25 mbu, somewhat in disbelief for most analysts in the trade. Australian and Argentine crops were reduced by 1.1 and 1.0 while both the EU and Russian crops were increased ½ MMT

·      Stocks are mixed ahead of the Fed rate decision. ASIA: Mostly firm—Nikkei, -0.08%; Shanghai, +0.24%; Hang Seng, +0.79%; EUROPE: Weaker—DAX, +0.23%; FTSE, -0.05%; CAC, -0.11%.  WALL STREET—Futures, mostly lower—DOW, -31; S&P, -1.25; NAS, +2.50  EXTERNALS: Feb crude: -$0.37 @ $58.77; Gold: +$2.60 @ $1,471; $ Index, +.089 @ 97.502

·      T-storm Weather®: dryness intensifies over the next 10 days in and adjacent key areas of southern Argentina, accompanied by heat today and for a period later next week, and only a low chance for some thunderstorms follows.  That said, much of Brazil and Paraguay receive substantial rainfall over the next two weeks, except in the north as hot upper-level high pressure suppresses rainfall in and adjacent Bahia

• CH, dn $.0150 @ $3.7550; CK, dn $.0125 @ $3.8150.  The funds bought 2 K on Report Day
• SF, dn $.0175 @ $8.9950; SH, dn $.0250 @ $9.13.  Funds, bot 3 K SB; 2 SBO & Seven SBM.  Board crush: $1.04, -3; LY, $.89,-3; 
• WH, dn $.0275 @ $5.21; WK, dn $.025 @ $5.2425.  The funds were also buyers of 2 K wheat on Tuesday  

CORN/SORGHUM

·      T-storm Weather®: a warm-up next week begins to diminish snowpack on unharvested corn in the Dakotas; some rain-snow Thu., especially Sat., and once or twice next week are not ideal for remaining harvesting in MI and WI

·      Consultant: Argentina 2019/20 corn crop est. is lowered 1.5 MMT this week to 47.5 MMT, with a neutral to lower bias

• Ethanol margins: $0.20 per gallon—up vs. $0.17 last week and well above -$0.06 in 2018.  EIA report at 9:30 am CST
• December 2019 corn futures on Tue. closed at $3.63 ¼—the lowest settlement price for the contract since Nov. 27

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• January 2020 soybean futures on Tue. closed at $9.01 ¼—highest settlement price for the contract since Nov. 20
• T-storm Weather®: near-normal rain (~4.00”) next 10-14 days in much of central Brazil tapers to little in Bahia; result is neutral to slightly favorable outlook as yield losses in north are offset by neutral to favorable weather elsewhere

·      Consultant: Argentina 19/20 soybean crop est. lowered 1.0 MMT this week to 53.0 MMT, with a neutral to lower bias

• ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. all wheat exports is 11-17 mbu per week

·      T-storm Weather®: little to no precip is forecast over the next week for U.S. HRW wheat; wet for SRW in southeast

ENERGY

·      Lower: CLG20, -$0.37 @ $57.87; EBG, -$0.36 @ $63.98; EBG-QCLG, +.03; RBG, -.0155; NGG, +.004; HOG, -.0220

·      EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -2.8 +1.4); Gasoline, +2.5 (+4.9); Distillates, +1.6 (+3.2).  Ethanol production, 1.064 mbpd (range: 1.056-1.069); stocks, + 274 K barrels to 20.913 (range: 20.739-21.039)

·      Chicago ethanol fell $.05 to $1.40; basis values versus Chicago were firmer:  NYC, +$.03 @ $.1250; Gulf, +$.0250 @ $.15; Dallas, +$.0350 @ +$.09; Tampa, +$.0350@ +$.1975; LA, +$.0350 @ +$.26

·      Ethanol RINs values were weaker: 2018’s, -.25 @ 6 ¼- 7; 2019’s, -.250 @ 12 ¼ -13; 2020’s, -.6250 @ 18 ¼-19                                     &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                                            

·      The January RBOB/January ethanol spread widened $.0227 yesterday to $.3145/gallon      

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY            &nbs​p;                &n​bsp;          

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• Choice boxed beef declined $2.15 on Tuesday to $221.49 and is $8.66 lower compared to last week 
• The USDA on Tuesday lowered its U.S. beef export forecast for 2019 by 40 million pounds to 3.074 billion pounds

·      USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained $1.25 on Tues. to $82.20 and is up $2.19 versus a week ago

·      CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.37 on Tue. to $58.12.  December futures gained $0.475 & are $2.355 above the index   

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®