HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Lower: CH, -$.0125; SF, +$.0025; WH, -$0.0275; KWH, -$.04.  Del’y: SBM, 0; SBO, 31; C, 0; HRW, 0; SRW, 0

·       What caught my eye: In less than 3 weeks, according to our market source, FOB U.S. gulf spot soybean prices have gone from a $22.00/MT $.60/bu) discount versus Brazil, to just a $1.75/MT ($.05/bu) price advantage as of yesterday

·       Europe sees concerns of a hard Brexit; U.S. equities take a breather: Higher—Nikkei, +0.47%; Shanghai, +1.27%; Hang Seng, +1.22%; EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.86%; FTSE, -0.10%; CAC, -0.45%.  WALL STREET—Lower—DOW futures, -52; S&P, -3.00; NAS, -4.75.  EXTERNALS: Feb crude: +$0.11 @ $60.25; Gold: +$3.10 @ $1,484; $ Index, +.037 @ 97.056

·       T-storm Weather®: today’s forecast is slightly wetter than previously in Argentina as some thunderstorms Fri.-Sat. are likely followed by some more around a week later, but each event needs to verify to stabilize or improve soil moisture.  In Brazil, heavy rains south this week (including Paraguay) limit dryness concerns, while a wetter period in the central and north next week as the remnant of a cool front triggers thunderstorms also limit concerns

• CH, dn $.0125 @ $3.8675; CK, dn $.0125 @ $3.9350.  Heavy fund buying of 20 K as trade deal optimism builds 
• SF, up $.0025 @ $9.2225; SH, unch @ $9.36.  Funds: Bot 12 K SB, 5 K SBM, 7 K SBO.  Board crush: $1.05, +1; LY, $.89,-3; 
• WH, dn $.0275 @ $5.47; WK, dn $.0250 @ $5.4875.  The funds bought an estimated 15 K to open the week   

CORN/SORGHUM

·       T-storm Weather®: very dry and milder weather aid MI and WI corn harvesting through 10 days,  Snowpack also gradually diminishes in the Dakotas, though muddiness initially continues to limit remaining harvesting

·       Consultant: the 2019/20 Brazil corn est. is unch this week at 102.0 MMT with a neutral bias going forward.  Farmers in the state of Mato Grosso are expected to starting planting safrinha (double crop) corn during the first half of January

·       U.S. corn exports for the 19/20 crop year through Dec. 12 were 285 mbu, which is 55% below last year’s 630 mbu

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks estimate for 19/20 U.S. corn is 1.919 bbu vs. December USDA est. of 1.910 bbu

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean est. lowered 1.0 MMT to 52.0, as dryness in the southern half of the country increases

·       T-storm Weather®: generalized rainfall of 1.00” to 2.00” is probable over the next two weeks in key central and southern soybean areas of Argentina, compared to normal rainfall of 1.75” to 2.50”

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks est. for 19/20 U.S. soybeans is 0.424 bbu vs. December USDA est. of 0.475 bbu

·       U.S. wheat exports for the 19/20 crop year through Dec. 12 were 499 mbu, which is 16% above last year’s 431 mbu

·       T-storm Weather®: dry weather forecast for U.S. HRW wheat this week, followed by much warmer temps next week

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks est. for 19/20 U.S. all wheat is 0.982 bbu vs. December USDA est. of 0.974 bbu

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLG20, +$0.11 @ $60.25; EBG, +$0.16 @ $65.50; EBG-QCLG, +.05; RBG, +.0066; NGG, -.031; HOG, +.0139

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0030 higher at $1.4030; basis values versus Chicago were mixed:  NYC, +$.00245 @ $.13950; Gulf, +$.0145 @ $.13450; Dallas, -$.0080 @ +$.0570; Tampa, -$.0080 @ +$.1470; LA, -$.0230 @ +$.2420

·       Ethanol RINs values were mixed: 2018’s, -.125 @ 6-6 ¼; 2019’s, +.25 @ 12 ¾ -13; 2020’s, +.375 @ 18 -20                            ​                         ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;     

·       The January RBOB/January ethanol spread narrowed  $.0225 to $.2727/gallon      

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                  &nb​sp;                    

• Choice boxed beef was 79-cents higher on Monday at $217.08 but is still $6.56 lower compared to last week 
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $0.25 v. last week at $119.17/cwt, and is $1.03 higher v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $2.00 on Mon. to $78.94 and is down $2.10 versus a week ago

·       Current nearby board hog crush value is $51.53/cwt vs. last week’s $48.56, last month’s $56.28 & last year’s $44.03   

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®