HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Higher:  CZ, +$.03; SF, +$.12; WZ, +$.0575; KWZ, +.0675.  Del’y:  RR, 1; SB, 118. Dalian: C, -11 ½; SB, +6

·       What caught my eye: Since returning from the National Holiday period 3+weeks ago, Dalian Jan SB futures have soared 15%/$2.66 per bushel to $20.76, and in spite of a near $6.00/ST decline in January SBM futures  

·       One pundit’s opinion . . . “Could it be the WH & Congress don’t matter as much to the stock market as does the Fed?”

• Asia:  Higher:  Nikkei, closed; Shanghai, +1.42%; Hang Seng, +1.96%
• EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +1.67%; FTSE, +1.64%; CAC, +1.93%
• WALL STREET: HIgher!–DOW futures, +398; S&P, +39.7551; NAS, +72.25141
• EXTERNALS: Dec crude, +$1.30 @ $38.10; Gold: +$6.00 @ $1,899; Mar $ Index, -0.465 @ 93.640
• T-storm Weather®: Most of Argentina & Brazil will be dry with little to no rain for at least a week, leaving the coverage of very dry soybeans in Brazil considerably higher than in recent years until at least Nov. 10-15.  A cool front or two pass in 1-2 weeks to focus rain on Brazil, but the exact setup will take days to determine; 1.00"-2.00" is most likely, but 3.00"-5.00" is normal of next 2 weeks.  Some rain also dots Argentina, but humidities will likely be lower, keeping best chances for rain in western areas in 1-2 weeks
• CZ, up $.03 @ $4.0050; CH, up $.0250 @ $4.0425. The funds began the week selling 3 K              
• SF, up $.12 @ $10.6425; SH, up $.1150 @ $10.5675.  Funds sold 4 SB; 4 SBM; 5 SBO. Board crush: $1.40 (Z/X), -$.06; LY, $0.73
• WZ, up $.0575 @ $6.1325; WH, up $.0450 @ $6.1250.  Funds buy 7 K on global export interest and market correction                              

CORN/SORGHUM

&mi​ddot;       U.S. corn harvested as of Nov. 1 was 82% compared to 72% last week, 49% last year & the 5-year avg. of 69% 

·       T-storm Weather®: Dry and very mild upper-level high pressure dominates the central U.S. over the next week, leaving in the 60s-70s-80s with minimums in the 30s-40s most days

·       Consultant: Argentina 20/21 corn est. dn 1.0 MMT to 49.0.  A larger percentage of corn will be planted in 2^nd phase of planting in early December, which increases yield risk—especially with a strengthening La Niña weather pattern

·       ATI Research: U.S. corn ending stocks for 20/21 est. at 1.744 bbu compared to the Oct. USDA forecast of 2.167 bbu

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       U.S. soybeans harvested as of Nov. 1 were 87% compared to 83% last week, 71% last year & the 5-year avg. of 83% 

·       T-storm Weather®: Rain occurs through Wednesday across soybeans in northern Brazil, producing 2.00” to 4.00” totals.  A much drier period follows for at least 7 to 10 days; approximately 3.00” is normal of the next two weeks

·       ATI Research: U.S. soybean ending stocks for 20/21 est. at 0.114 bbu compared to Oct. USDA forecast of 0.290 bbu

·       U.S. winter wheat planting: 89% v. 88% last year & avg. of 86%; good/excellent ratings +2% to 43% vs. 57% last year

·       ATI Research: The 4-week avg. of Black Sea wheat exports is up ~20% vs. 2019, but shipments fell sharply last week

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLZ20, +$1.30 @ $38.10; EBF, +$1.224 @ $40.19; EBF-CLF, unch; RBZ, +.0230; NGZ, -.057; HOZ, +.0227

·       Chicago ethanol was steady Monday at $1.5175.  Basis, mostly weaker: NYC, -$.02 @ $.06750; Gulf, -$.0350 @ +$.0625; Dallas, -$.0050 @ +$.0825; Tampa, +$.0025 @ +$.1825; LA, -$.0050 @ +$.1275

·       Ethanol RIN values, weaker: 2019’s, -2.50 @ 55- 57; 2020’s: -2.00 @ 56 -57 ½; 2021, -2.00 @ 58 ½ -59 ½                                   &nbs​p;                        ​;                         ​;                        ​                                                  ​          

· ​;      The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread is $.0155 higher at -$.3025 per gallon  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                            &nbs​p;          

• Choice boxed beef was $0.55 higher on Monday at $208.65, and is up $0.82 compared to a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was dn $0.83 v. last week at $104.24/cwt, and is dn $8.79 v. last year
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased $0.25 on Mon. to $82.79, and is down $7.91 vs. the previous week
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $33.53/cwt vs. last week’s $33.47, last month’s $39.29 & last year’s $47.77

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather