HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Higher: CZ, +$.03; SX, +$.0250; WZ, +$.0750; KWZ, +$.0625. 

·       What caught my eye: Not to belabor the point, but China’s cash prices continue to climb with values in the South of the country up over $.90 per bushel since mid-August and at $9.85 per bushel are $2.75 per bu/39% higher than a year ago at this time

·       Markets still hoping for a pre-election stimulus package; China’s 3^rd quarter GDP rises 4.9%, less than expected

• Asia:  Mostly firm:  Nikkei, +1.11%; Shanghai, -0.71%; Hang Seng, +0.64%
• EUROPE: Slightly firm—DAX, +0.01%; FTSE, -0.19%; CAC, +0.82%
• WALL STREET: Higher-–DOW futures, +181; S&P, +26; NAS, +122
• EXTERNALS: Nov crude, -$0.28 @ $40.60; Gold: +$9.30 @ $1,916; Mar $ Index, -0.254 @ 93.390
• T-storm Weather®:  In South America, a wetter pattern gradually assembles, and it should be raining regularly in all areas. Best t-storm chances are initially in Argentina early next week when a large system and cool front pass. Scattered t-storms follow in Brazil and Paraguay later next week and weekend, but organized rainfall will likely be limited to Goiás and Minas Gerais over the next week, and most t-storms are probably at least one week out in Mato Grosso and MATOPIBA when cool fronts are nearer
• CZ, up $.03 @ $4.05; CH, up $.0250 @ $4.0950.  The funds ended the week buying 3 K        
• SX, up $.0250 @ $10.5250; SF, up $.03 @ $10.5325. Funds sold 5 SB; 4 SBM; 2 SBO. Board crush: $1.10 (Z/X), -.11; LY, $0.78
• WZ, up $.0750 @ $6.3275; WH, up $.05 @ $6.2850.  Russian weather worries continue, funds buy 4 K                       

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Corn Export Sales Friday were on the weak side at 26 mbu versus 24-47 expected and 29/wk needed. No milo activity this week with sales of 3.1 mbu/week needed

·       At the current pace, corn/milo ETOH grind could fall 200 mbu this year, versus 163 mbu USDA forecasted increase

·       Concerns w/ Brazil’s corn supply; FOB prices are $30/MT above the Gulf; Japan has cut its July-Sep imports from Brazil 50% vs LY and has turned to the U.S. with year-to-date buying more than doubling to 136 mbu as of 10/08

·       Gulf corn exports are likely to take a back seat to soybeans near-term, with 15-20/wk of the former, 60 of the latter

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Soybean sales were again very strong at 97 mbu (trade: 55-81 with only 11/wk needed).  Product sales on the light side at 152 K SBM (100-350 expected) and only 1.4 K SBO (-030 expected)

·       Recent soybean meal exports at 187 K MT/week are 17% above the seasonal average

·       Wheat export sales were solid at 19.4 (7-22 expected/12.8 needed)

·       Russian wheat woes stimulating U.S. demand?  Weekly sales at 18.6 very near a 7-year seasonal high

·       T-storm Weather®: Some t-storms likely affect the eastern edge of HRW wheat in KS-OK-TX Tue.-Thu., but substantial totals next week will likely be limited to the Corn Belt until a drier and chilly period begins Thu.-Fri

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLX20, -$0.28 @ $40.60; EBZ, -$0.26 @ $42.67; EBZ-QCLX, +0.02; RBX, -.0118; NGX, -.070; HOX, -.0114

·       Chicago ethanol was $.01875 higher at $1.48375; basis, firmer: NYC, +$.05125 @ $.12375; Gulf, +.04875 @ +$.14875; Dallas, +$.05375 @ +$.14375; Tampa, +$.05875 @ +$.23875; LA, +$.05875 @ +$.22375

·       Ethanol RIN values, firmer: 2019’s, +1.13 @ 50 7/8 –51 1/8; 2020’s: +1.1250 @ 51 -52 ¼; 2021, +1.00 @ 53 ¾ -55                                          ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p; 

·       The Nov RBOB/Oct ethanol spread is off $.0244 lower at -$.2956   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                     &nb​sp;                 

• Choice boxed beef was $.18 higher Friday to $210.66, and is down $3.40 versus last week 
• Disappointing week for the feeder cattle market as Board support was hard to come by and input cost continue rising
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $2.31 on Fri. to $97.90, and is $5.20 higher versus a week ago 
• CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.25 Fri. to $78.249.  December futures slipped $.075 to $69.80, $8.450 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®