HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Higher: CZ, +$.0175; SX, +$.0450; WZ, +$.09; KWZ, +$.0850.

·       What caught my eye: SB export market likely to turn more to ECB and ND/SD for soybeans this year . . . exportable surplus nearly doubles in former to 289 mbu and the latter, up 47%/100 mbu.  Mid-South, 75 mbu greater or 28% more than last fall

·       Markets mostly lower as Covid-19 cases spike; J&J vaccine study pauses due to unexplained patient illness

• Asia:  Firmer-- Nikkei, +0.18%; Shanghai, +0.04%; Hang Seng, unchanged
• EUROPE: Weaker—DAX, -0.42%; FTSE, -0.44%; CAC, -0.40%
• WALL STREET: A bit weaker-–DOW futures, +135; S&P, -3.75; NAS, +121.5
• EXTERNALS: Nov crude, +$0.81 @ $40.24; Gold: -$2.50 @ $1,926; Mar $ Index, +0.084 @ 93.150
• T-storm Weather®: In Brazil, some t-storms dot central and northern areas over the next week, but most rain will likely be associated with a wave of energy that flows across parts of the southern growing region (and Paraguay) within Thu.-Sun.  Most areas in Argentina will remain dry until next week when a round of thunderstorms should develop, though timing uncertain. 95% of Russian winter wheat drier than normal past 30 days; 70% had less than ¼ the normal moisture
• CZ, up $.0175 @ $3.9075; CH, up $.0150 @ $3.9825.  Funds were sellers of 10 K on Monday, numerous factors contributed        
• SX, up $.0450 @ $10.3825; SF, up $.0475 @ $10.4150. Funds: Sold 15 SB; 10 SBM, 10 SBO. Board crush: $1.10 (Z/X), +.01; LY, $0.77
• WZ, up $.09 @ $6.0325; WH, up $.08 @ $6.05750.  The funds were even in Monday’s trade

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Trade expecting corn ratings unchanged at 62% this afternoon, vs 55% LY and 66% AVG.  Harvest expected to move ahead 15 points to 40% complete, double the year ago pace and versus 33% AVG

·       T-storm Weather®:  A cold spell begins Wed.-Thu. for 1 week, with occasional temperatures of -10F to -20F below normal (coldest in / near MN, NE, and the Dakotas where killing freezes are very likely as minimums are 18F to 25F

·       ATI Research: U.S. corn ending stocks for 20/21 est. at 1.974 bbu compared to the Oct. USDA forecast of 2.1673 bbu

·       T-storm Weather®:  93% of expected first-corn production in Brazil were drier than normal the last 30 days

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Soybeans are expected to be 60% harvested as of Sunday, up 22 points from LW and versus 23% LY and 42% AVG.  Ratings are seen holding at 64% G/E, 10 points higher than a year ago and matching the AVG

·       T-storm Weather®: most HRW wheat stays dry the next 10 days, leaving 30-day dryness highest since at least 2011

·       ATI Research: U.S. soybean ending stocks for 20/21 est. at 0.228 bbu compared to Oct. USDA forecast of 0.290 bbu

·       U.S.  winter wheat planting: expected at 69% vs 61% for both last year and the AVG pace

·       T-storm Weather ®:  94% of expected Brazil soybean production was drier than normal the past 30 days

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLX20, +$0.81 @ $40.24; EBZ, +$0.73 @ $42.45; EBZ-QCLX, -0.07; RBX, +.0177; NGX, -.072; HOX, +.0171

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0025 higher at $1.4375; basis, weaker: NYC, -$.00250 @ $.0725; Gulf, +.0050 @ +$.10; Dallas, -$.0025 @ +$.0925; Tampa, -$.0025 @ +$.1875; LA, -$.10 @ +$.1625

·       Ethanol RIN values, weaker: 2019’s, -.13 @ 48 –50 ½; 2020’s: -.1475 @ 49 ½- 50; 2021, -.3980 @ 52 -53                                      &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                                                &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​      

·       The Nov RBOB/Oct ethanol spread is $.0246 higher at -$.2222     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                &​nbsp;                      <​/wbr>

• Choice boxed beef gained $0.56 on Monday to $214.62, and is down $2.36 versus a week ago
• 6-State Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was up $1.77 v. last week at $108.53/cwt
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $2.68 on Mon. to $97.48, and is $3.16 lower compared to last week 
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $36.40/cwt vs. last week’s $34.76, last month’s $38.14 & last year’s $46.58

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®