HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Higher: CZ, +$.0325; SX, +$.0225; WZ, +$.0275; KWZ, +$.0275

·       What caught my eye: Shouldn’t be too much of a surprise but in our space analysis with the IA corn yield dropping 5 bpa this month, the estimate for that state went from a 113 million bushel space deficit last fall, to a 93 million SURPLUS in 2020

·       Stocks around the globe are mostly firm despite Congressional difficulties in reaching a stimulus agreement

• Asia:  Mostly firm-- Nikkei, -0.26%; Shanghai, +2.64%; Hang Seng, +2.20%
• EUROPE: Mostly firm—DAX, +0.13%; FTSE, -0.02%; CAC, +0.44%
• WALL STREET: Mostly firm-–DOW futures, -3; S&P, +10; NAS, +122
• EXTERNALS: Nov crude, -$0.62 @ $39.98; Gold: +$2.40 @ $1,929; Mar $ Index, +0.090 @ 93.130
• T-storm Weather®: Dry weather prevails across most of the central U.S. over the next 10 to 14 days, except for a few showers in the Corn Belt today.  Temperatures turn cooler today as a cold front races across the central U.S. and drops readings by 10°F to 20°F.  Thereafter, another cool front is probable to pass around Thursday, turning a wide area cooler than normal and marking an end to ongoing mildness
• CZ, up $.0325 @ $3.9825; CH, up $.03 @ $4.0525.  Heavy fund buying as USDA again ignores Chinese corn demand       
• SX, up $.0225 @ $10.6775; SF, up $.03 @ $10.6875. Funds: buy 15 SB; 6 SBM, 10 BO. Board crush: $1.09 (V/X), +.03; LY, $0.83
• WZ, up $.0275 @ $5.9650; WH, up $.0250 @ $6.0025.  No major surprises on Friday, funds buy 2 K                      

CORN/SO​RGHUM

·       December 2020 corn futures on Friday closed at $3.95--highest settlement price for the contract since Jan. 29

·       ATI Research: Uncertainties persist regarding the USDA’s assessment of Chinese corn situation as imports were left unch at 7.0 MMT in Friday’s Supply/Demand report, even though confirmed U.S. sales to China now total 10.0 MMT

·       U.S. corn harvested increases ~8% from Oct. 4-11 to ~32%, but dry weather last week may push this year to 35-40%

·       Through Oct. 9, the 2020 crop insurance harvest price for December 2020 corn futures has averaged $3.8539

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Nov.​ soybean futures on Fri. closed at $10.65 ½--the highest settlement price for nearby futures since March 5, 2018

·       ATI Research: With Friday’s sharp decline in projected 20/21 U.S. soybean ending stocks to 290 mbu, South American weather/planting progress will be closely watched in coming weeks along with new daily export sales announcements

·       T-storm Weather®: In Brazil, half of normal rainfall is forecast in most soybean producing areas over the next 2 weeks

·       Through Oct. 9, the 2020 crop insurance harvest price for November 2020 soybean futures has averaged $10.3946

·       KC December wheat futures on Fri. closed at $5.35 ½--highest Fri. settlement price for the contract since July 12, 2019

·       T-storm Weather®: Dry, very mild upper-level high pressure suppresses rain near-term in Russia’s winter wheat areas

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLX20, -$0.62 @ $39.98; EBZ, -$0.56 @ $42.29; EBZ-QCLX, +0.07; RBX, -.0153; NGX, +.146; HOX, -.0202

·       Chicago ethanol closed up $.0175 Friday at $1.4350; basis, mostly weaker: NYC, -$.0025 @ $.0750; Gulf, -.03850 @ +$.0950; Dallas, -$.0025 @ +$.095; Tampa, -$.0025 @ +$.19; LA, +$.0975 @ +$.2650

·       Ethanol RIN values, up: 2019’s, +0.13 @ 48 1/8 -50 5/8; 2020’s: +0.1475 @ 49 ¾-50; 2021’s, +0.1480 @ 52 5/8- 52 1/8                                      &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                                                &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​    

·       The Nov RBOB/Oct ethanol spread is trading at -$.2348, off $.0380       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY              &n​bsp;                        

• Choice boxed beef declined $1.94 on Friday to $214.06, and is $4.82 lower versus a week ago 
• Cash cattle trade last week was $2.00 higher throughout both the Northern and Southern Plains  
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased $0.90 on Fri. to $93.70, but is still $2.40 higher versus last week 
• CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.09 on Fri. to $77.71.  October futures were up $0.775 & are $0.415 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®