Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Higher: CZ, +$.0225; SF, +$.1050; WZ, +$.0275; KWZ, +$.04.  Del’y:  RR, 0 SB, 110.  Dalian: C, +3 ½; SB, + 19  

·       What caught my eye: USDA cuts EU corn use by 5 ½ MMT with crop down nearly 2 MMT and imports 4 MMT lower at 20.  Reduced corn imports understandable in view of much smaller Ukraine crop (down 8!); time to renew U.S./EU trade relations? 

·       Vaccine optimism lingers on, Europe higher as are U.S. stock futures, investors rotate out of tech

• Asia:  Mostly weaker:  Nikkei, +1.78%; Shanghai, -0.50%; Hang Seng, -0.28%
• EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.47%; FTSE, +0.68%; CAC, +0.49%
• WALL STREET: Higher–DOW futures, +195; S&P, +25.75; NAS, +119.25
• EXTERNALS: Dec crude, +$1.37 @ $42.73; Gold: -$5.60 @ $1,871; Mar $ Index, +0.174 @ 92.880
• T-storm Weather®: Brazil turns wetter over the next week as scattered thunderstorms form at varying points as two cool fronts pass, but a much drier period follows / continues in at least southern areas to maintain dry to drought conditions.  Little rain has fallen in Argentina over the last two weeks, maintaining dry to drought conditions, and much of its early-corn and soybean areas will be considerably drier than normal over the next two weeks as surface-level highs limit rainfall to western areas
• CZ, up $.0225 @ $4.2525; CH, up $.0250 @ $4.3350. Things are getting interesting, funds buy 30 K             
• SF, up $.1050 @ $11.5650; SH, up $.0975 @ $11.5350.  Funds bot 25 SB; 15 SM; 10 BO. Board crush: $1.27 (Z/X), -$.03; LY, $0.90
• WZ, up $.0275 @ $6.1125; WH, up $.0275 @ $6.19.  Row crop rally encourages 7 K of fund buying                     

     CORN/SORGHUM

·      &nbs​p;Dec. 2020 corn futures on Tue. closed at $4.23—highest settlement price for nearby corn futures since July 24, 2019

·       ATI Research: Model forecast for near-term U.S. corn exports is 35 mbu per week, with a range of 31-40  

·       T-storm Weather®: Although near-normal rainfall develops over the next 10 to 14 days in southwestern Argentina growing areas, at least half of early-corn across the country will be sharply drier than normal over the period

·       Consultant: Brazil 2020/21 corn estimate was lowered 2.0 MMT to 108.0 MMT as (1) the safrinha (double crop) corn is going to be planted later than normal, and (2) full-season corn in southern Brazil has been under moisture stress

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Nov. 2020 soybean futures on Tue. closed at $11.38 ¼—highest settlement price for nearby futures since July 1, 2016

·       ATI Research: Near-term U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 98 mbu per week, with a range of 89-105

·       T-storm Weather®: The most likely scenario remains for 2.50” to 4.50” of rain to fall over the next two weeks across soybeans in central and northern Brazil, compared to normal rainfall of ~3.00” to ~5.00”

·       ATI Research: Near-term exports of U.S. wheat are projected to range from 11-15 mbu per week

·       T-storm Weather®: An increasingly impressive drought intensifies through at least late-month for U.S. HRW wheat

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLZ20, +$1.37 @ $42.73; EBF, +$1.25 @ $44.86; EBF-CLF, -0.009; RBZ, +.0294; NGZ, -.009; HOZ, +.0361

·       Chicago ethanol rose $.0170 yesterday to $1.5605/gallon. Basis, mostly weaker: NYC, -$.0095 @ -$.0030; Gulf, +$.0030 @ +$.0695; Dallas, -$.0020 @ +$.03950; Tampa, -$.0020 @ +$.13450; LA, -$.0020 @ +$.04450

·       Ethanol RIN values, weaker: 2019’s, -3.50 @ 66 ½-69; 2020’s: -3.75 @ 67-69 ½; 2021, -3.75 @ 69 - 70 ½                                              &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                         ​                        &​nbsp; 

·       The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread is $.0120 higher this morning at -$.2197 per gallon 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                   &nb​sp;                   

• Choice boxed beef was $4.86 higher on Tue.—largest one-day increase since May 12—& is up $12.81 vs. last week
• Tuesday’s week-to-week gain in choice boxed beef was the largest since Aug. 20
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $2.98 on Tue. to $81.84, but is still $0.22 higher versus a week ago
• Lean Hog Index firmed $0.12 on Tue. to $71.25.  December futures eased $0.475 and are $6.125 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather