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TRENDS Higher CU, Up 3, SU, Up 6, WU, Up 5

August 24, 2020 07:39 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        TRENDS—Higher: CU, +$.0175; SU, +$.03; WU, +$.0150; KWU, steady

·        What caught my eye:  With the amount of corn and soybeans China has purchased from the U.S. for 20-21, expect the USDA to boost the imports of the former by 3-5 MMT and the latter, possibly two or more in the September WASDE         

·        Global equities higher as FDA approves use of convalescent plasma in the war against Covid-19

  • Asia—Higher:  Nikkei, +0.28%; Shanghai, +.15%; Hang Seng, +1.74%
  • EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +2.21%; FTSE, +1.69%; CAC, +2.06%
  • WALL STREET: Futures, much firmer --DOW, +240; S&P, +24.50; NAS, +94
  • EXTERNALS: Oct crude, +$0.29 @ $42.63Gold: +$7.40 $1,954; Sep $ Index, -.300 @ 92.940
  • T-storm Weather®: weekend rainfall was wetter than expected in a small area of south-central MN and north-central IA.  Mainly dry and hot weather affect most U.S. corn and soybeans through at least midweek, except north where some thunderstorms form as waves of energy pass.  The remnants of Hurricane Marco and more-so Tropical Storm Laura encroach on the Delta later in the week and / or weekend after striking LA and / or TX, producing heavy rain on far southern corn and soybeans
  • CU, up $.0175 @ $3.2875; CZ, up $.02 @ $3.4250. The funds closed out the week by buying 2 K 
  • SU, up $.03 @ $9.0375; SX, up $.03 @ $9.0775.  Funds sold 2 K SB, 4 K SBM, bot 1 K SBO. Board crush: $0.83 (U/U), -5; LY, $1.04
  • WU, up $.0150 @ $5.2875; WZ, up $.0150 @ $5.3650.  Fund buying on Friday was estimated at 3 K  

CORN/SORGHUM

·        Good/Excellent ratings for U.S. corn in this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress are expected to be 67-68% compared to last week’s 69% and last year’s 57%

·        T-storm Weather®: a stormy period starts Aug. 30-31 and produces widespread coverage of above-normal rainfall over the week that follows across the U.S. Corn Belt, turning a wide corn area wet in early September

·        Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 8.0 mbu needed; 40.8 last week.  Milo—12.0 needed; 3.3 last week

·        T-storm Weather®: much warmer than normal, little/no rain in key corn areas of Ukraine & Russia next 10-14 days

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        Crop Progress report: U.S. soybean Good/Excellent crop ratings projected at 70-71% v. 72% last week & 55% last year

·        T-storm Weather®: a stormy period starts Aug. 30-31 and produces widespread coverage of above-normal rainfall over the week that follows across the U.S. Corn Belt, turning a wide soybean area wet in early September

·        Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 26.5 mbu needed; 28.8 last week

·        T-storm Weather®: Australia wheat will be drier than normal the next 10 days, but rains were substantial this month

·        Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 18.7 mbu needed; 17.0 last week

ENERGY

·        Firm:  CLV20, +$0.27 @ $42.63; EBV, +$0.35 $44.70EBV-QCLV, +0.05; RBV, +.0172; NGV, -.021; HOV, +.0234

·        Chicago ethanol was $.00875 higher on Friday at $1.35; basis, mostly weaker: NYC, -$.01125 @ +$.1275; Gulf, -.00375 @ +$.14; Dallas, -$.00625 @ +$.1175; Tampa, -$.00875 @ +$.1950; LA, +$.0125 @ +$.13500

·        Ethanol RIN values, steady/weaker: 2019’s, unch @ 40-43 ½; 2020’s: -1.25 @ 44 -45 ¼                                           &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                         ​                        &​nbsp;              

&m​iddot;        The Sep RBOB/August ethanol spread is trading +$.0298, up $.0282 and premium to ethanol

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                              ​                        <​/wbr>

  • C​hoice boxed beef firmed $0.56 on Friday to $225.94, and is $11.70 higher compared to a week ago
  • Cattle on Feed: Aug. 1 on feed, 101.5% (100.9% avg est); July placed, 111.0% (106.1%); July Marketed, 99.4 (99.1%)
  • The mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $2.53 on Fri. to $72.96, & is $1.46 lower versus the previous week
  • CME Lean Hog Index was $0.10 higher on Fri. at $55.51.  October futures eased $0.925 & are $1.260 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

 



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