HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Higher: CU, +$.0125; SQ, +$.06; WU, +$.0425; KWU, +$.0450.  Del’y: SBM, 24; SBO, 412

·       What caught my eye:   China’s selling reserve corn stocks like hot cakes; Dalian futures are at a 5-year high and the U.S. makes the largest one-day sale of nearly 2 MMT in nearly 30 years yesterday.  CZ20 closes a ½ cent higher?  U.S. supply, not an issue?

·       China’s PMI for July exceeds expectations at 51.1 and “may” be the only economy that returns to pre-COVID levels TY. 

• Asia—Mostly weaker:  Nikkei, -2.82%; Shanghai, +0.71%; Hang Seng, -0.47%;
• EUROPE: Mostly higher—DAX, +0.40%; FTSE, -0.03%; CAC, +0.12%. 
• WALL STREET: Futures, firm --DOW, +21; S&P, +3.25; NAS, +86.5. 
• EXTERNALS: Sep crude, +$0.19 @ $40.11; Gold: +$28.60 @ $1,995; Sep $ Index, -.219 @ 92.790

·       T-storm Weather®: pockets of rain affect southern and eastern U.S. corn and soybeans through Sunday (including drier areas of IN and OH Sat.-Sun), while scattered showers affect the western Corn Belt Sat.-Sun. and the eastern Corn Belt Mon.-Tue.  Temperatures also turn much cooler from north to south through today, then much cooler again over Sat.-Mon. as a large surface-level high passes and then lingers

• CU, up $.0125 @ $3.17; CZ, up $.0125 @ $3.28.  Large Chinese corn purchase generated a modest 2 K in fund buying                                 ​  
• SQ, up $.06 @ $8.9775; SX, up $.0525 @ $8.9350.  Funds: Bot 2 SB, 3 SBM, 2 SBO.  Board crush: $0.72 Q/Q), +6; LY, $0.99
• WU, up $.0425 @ $5.3375; WZ, up $.0425 @ $5.4025.  The funds sold 2 K on Thursday            

CORN/SORGHUM

​ ·       T-storm Weather®: coolness slowly breaks west to east over Aug. 5-7 across U.S. Corn Belt, followed by several days of very warm weather.  Some rain forms in & after warmer period, but low humidities likely limit coverage & amounts

·       Combined old and new-crop unshipped U.S. corn export sales as of July 23 were 551 mbu, which is 80% higher compared to 306 mbu last year but 11% lower versus 620 mbu two years ago

·       ATI Research: U.S. corn silking progress on average increases approximately 11% from July 26 to Aug. 2

·       T-storm Weather®: below/much-below normal rain continues for corn in much of EU/Russia/Ukraine next 10-14 days

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather®: coolness slowly breaks west to east over Aug. 5-7 across U.S. Corn Belt, followed by several days of very warm weather.  Some rain forms in & after warmer period, but low humidities likely limit coverage & amounts

·       ATI Research: combined old and new-crop unshipped U.S. soybean export sales as of July 23 were 778 mbu, which is 90% higher compared to 409 mbu last year and 31% above 593 mbu from two years ago

·       ATI Research: unshipped U.S. HRW wheat export sales as of July 23 were 64 mbu—the 2^nd highest total in 6 years

·       T-storm Weather®: Rain is probable to aid wheat next week in Australia as a couple systems pass, which is needed

ENERGY

·       Higher:  CLU20, +$0.19 @ $40.11; EBU, +$0.20 @ $43.14; EBU-QCLU, +0.01; RBU, -.0014; NGU, +.023; HOU, +.0123

·       Chicago ethanol was off $.04 to $1.20; basis, mixed: NYC, -$.0750 @ $.00; Gulf, -$.0050 @ +$.0850; Dallas, +$.0050 @ +$.0750; Tampa, +$.0050 @ +$.19; LA, +$.0250 @ +$.2050

·       Ethanol RIN values, steady/firm: 2019’s, unch @ 45 ¼ -45 ½; 2020’s: +.1250 @ 47 ½ -48                                    ​;                        ​                         ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;               

·       The Aug RBOB/August ethanol spread is trading $.0275 higher at $.0579/gallon, premium RBOB

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                     &nbs​p;                 

• Choice boxed beef was $0.69 higher on Thursday at $201.80, but is still down $0.46 versus a week ago
• Cash cattle sold for $160 to $162 on Thu. in the North, which is unch to $2.00 higher v. last week's weighted average
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased $0.13 on Thu. to $67.17, and is $1.52 lower compared to last week
• CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.60 on Thu. to $53.56.  August futures were $1.650 lower & are $2.135 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®