HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Higher: CU, +$.02; SQ, +$.0225; WU, -$.0050; KWU, +$.0025.  Dely: SBM, 187, SBO, 223; RR, 45; HRW, 96; SRW, 133

·       What caught my eye:  Weekly draw in ethanol stocks was large but towards the upper end of trade expectations; stx now 2.7 million barrels below the year ago total.  Sep-May corn/milo grind down 9%; slightly less than 10% annual drop forecast by USDA

·       News of a possible COVID vaccine from Pfizer/BioNTech lifts markets.  Asia: Firm--Nikkei, +0.11%; Shanghai, +2.13%; Hang Seng, +2.85%; EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +1.51%; FTSE, +0.56%; CAC, +1.27%.  WALL STREET: Futures, higher --DOW, +207; S&P, +16.5; NAS, +36.   EXTERNALS: Aug crude, +$0.25 @ $40.07; Gold: +$4.70 @ $1,785; Sep $ Index, -0.225 @ 96.930

·       T-storm Weather®: above- to much-above-normal temps affect a wide area of U.S. crops into mid-July–especially driven by very warm nights.  Additional rain occurs tonight in the Dakotas, which is where best rain chances then focus over the next 10 days.  Thunderstorms in the Dakotas then drift east & south at times, which is why we are also forecasting significant rain in Minnesota.  Some thunderstorms will also form elsewhere as subtle waves pass, but well-organized rain is not currently expected

• CU, up $.0275 @ $3.5325; CZ, up $.0250 @ $3.63.  Short-covering & less than favorable forecast, funds buy 35 K                            
• SQ, up $.0225 @ $8.9375; SX, up $.02 @ $9.01.  Funds: Bot 9 SB, 4 SBO, 8 SBM.  Board crush: $0.61 (N/N), +8; LY, $0.98
• WU, dn $.0050 @ $4.9825; WZ, dn $.0075 @ $5.0525.  The funds buy 6 K, again in sympathy with row crops                      

CORN/SORGHUM

·   ​;    Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 18-28 mbu for 19/20 corn and 0-8 for 20/21

·       T-storm Weather®: above- to much above-normal temps focus on the heart of U.S. corn over the next two weeks.  Warmth will largely be driven by mild nights as lows generally stay in the 70s, which is +5°F to +10°F from normal

·       Ethanol grind: total of 900,000 barrels/day for the week ending June 26—up 7 thousand versus last week but down 16.7% compared to last year’s 1,081,000

·       T-storm Weather®: much above-normal temps affect corn over next two weeks in Ukraine, Russia & the eastern EU.  Ukraine and western Russia will also be much drier than normal as the storm track stays west

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 11-29 mbu for 19/20 soybeans and 11-29 for 20/21; soymeal, 75-250 K MT for 19/20 and 0-50 for 20/21; soyoil, 5-25 for 19/20 and 0-5 for 20/21  

·       T-storm Weather®: the coverage of dryness on U.S. soybeans remains slightly elevated, and included 50%, 25%, and 33% of expected production over the 7, 14, and 30 days ending Tuesday morning

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 9-22 mbu for 20/21

·       T-storm Weather®: drought broke this week across spring wheat in North Dakota & parts of Canada.  Rainfall of 1.25”-2.50” is probable the next two weeks in the Dakotas & Minnesota, while some rain & fluctuating temps affect Canada

ENERGY

·       Up: CLQ20, +$0.25 @ $40.07; EBU, +$0.25 @ $42.28; EBU-QCLU, +$0.06; RBQ, +.0068; NGQ, +.017; HOQ, +.0136

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0750 firmer at $1.3550; basis, generally weaker: NYC, +$.01 @ +$.1450; Gulf, -$.0125 @ +$.0950; Dallas, -$.0150 @ +$.1050; Tampa, -$.0150 @ +$.2050; LA, -$.05 @ +$.2550

·       Ethanol RIN values, firmer: 2019’s, +1.25 @ 43-45 ½; 2020’s: +1.00 @ 45 -47 ½                          &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                 

​ ·       The Aug RBOB/July ethanol spread closed at +$.0079 yesterday, up $.0078

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             ​                       &n​bsp;  

• Choice boxed beef declined $1.59 on Wednesday to $205.38, and is $4.31 lower versus a week ago   
• Cash cattle trade developed on Wednesday in the South at $95, which is $1.00 lower than last week
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $1.09 on Wed. to $63.45, but is still $3.64 lower versus last week
• CME Lean Hog Index increased $0.03 on Wed. to $45.27.  July futures fell $0.375 and are $0.470 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®