HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Higher:  CK, +$.0175; SK, +$.0475; WK, +$.0425; KWK, +$.0725 

·       What caught my eye: The average trade estimate on ending soybean stocks of 430 mbu is a modest 5 increase from March.  Given what had been sluggish export bean buying and now a slowing of meal interest, USDA’s take tomorrow will be closely watched

·       Hopes for a quick Covid-19 resolution fade.  Asia: Mostly weaker-- Nikkei, +2.13%; Shanghai, -0.19%; Hang Seng, -1.17%; EUROPE: Weaker—DAX, -0.91%; FTSE, -1.47%; CAC, -1.59%.  WALL STREET: Futures, higher--DOW, +62; S&P, +7.25; NAS, +28.  EXTERNALS: May crude, +$0.86 @ $24.49; Gold: +$5.10 @ $1,689; Sep $ Index, +0.266 @ 100.195

·       T-storm Weather®: in the U.S., April is likely to be colder than normal in the Corn Belt based on the intensity & longevity of a cold pattern that starts today, leaving temps more similar to winter than spring.  Some rains & snows accompany this setup, especially Sat.-Sun. within much of the central/southern Plains, Corn Belt, & Delta when light to moderate precip unfolds.  Thus, unfavorable planting weather is expected, though it results in rains & snows on winter wheat (including drier wheat in/near Kansas)

• CK, up $.0175 @ $3.3325; CN, up $.0150 @ $3.3875.  Short-covering encouraged 7 K of fund buying yesterday       
• SK, up $.0475 @ $8.5950; SN, up $.0525 @ $8.6625.  Funds: Bot 2 SB, 7 SBO, sold 5 SBM.  Board crush: $0.94 (K/K), +1; LY, $0.99 
• WK, uo $.0425 @ $5.5350; WN, up $.05 @ $5.5225.  The funds sold 3 K yesterday                                       

  CORN/SORGHUM

·      ​ T-storm Weather®: dry & cool weather dominate corn in southern Brazil until some thunderstorms around April 14.  Rains form to the north this week, but likely focus just north of driest corn in southern areas of Goiás & Mato Grosso

·       Consultant: 2019/20 Argentina corn est. was unch this week at 49.0 MMT.  Weather last week allowed for quick harvest progress in the province of Cordoba, but slower progress in the provinces of Buenos Aires and La Pampa

·       ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. corn exports is increased to 40-45 mbu per week

·       U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report scheduled to be released at 9:30 am CDT  

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·    ​;   Consultant: the 2019/20 Argentina soybean estimate was reduced 1.0 million tons this week to 50.0 million tons, with a neutral to lower bias going forward

·       T-storm Weather®: in Argentina, dry & cooler than normal weather through Sun. allows soybean harvest to accelerate

·       ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. wheat exports remain at 15-20 mbu per week  

·       T-storm Weather®: 52% and 25% of U.S. HRW wheat production was drier than normal over the last 14 and 30 days (including 70% and 47% in Kansas), but only 24% and 9% of SRW wheat was similarly dry

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLK20, +$0.86 @ $24.49; EBM, +$0.23 @ $32.10; EBM-QCLM, -$0.57; RBK, -.0042; NGK, +.030; HOK, +.0037

·   ​;    EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +9.3 (+11.9); Gasoline, +4.3 (+9.4); Distillates, +1.4 (-0.2).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 0.778 mbpd (range: 0.700-0.825).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 26.322 mb (range 25.466-27.774)

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0040 higher yesterday at $.8365/gallon; basis, mostly weaker:  NYC, +$.0135 @ $.0510; Gulf, -$.0040 @ $.0935; Dallas, +$.0060 @ +$.1335; Tampa, -$.0040 @ +$.2135; LA, -$.0040 @ +$.1635

·       Ethanol RINs values, mostly easier: 2018’s, -0.25 @ 20 ½ -21; 2019’s, -0.25 @ 22-24; 2020’s: +0.25 @ 32 ½-36                                            &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                                                 &nb​sp;       

·      &​nbsp;The May RBOB/May ethanol inverse again widened, out $.0504 Tuesday to $.217, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             <​wbr>                   &n​bsp;      

• Choice boxed beef was $2.17 lower on Tuesday at $227.88, and is down $15.27 versus a week ago
• Light cash cattle trade developed on Tue. in parts of KS, NE & TX at $105, $4.00 lower than last week's weighted avg.
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $3.59 lower on Tue. at $53.70, & is down $10.62 versus last week
• CME Lean Hog Index fell $2.13 on Tue. to $55.52.  April futures soared $3.000 but are $11.395 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®