HIGHLIGHTS

·      TRENDS—Higher: CH, +$.0275; SH, +$.0725; WH, +$.07; KWH, +$.06750 

·      What caught my eye: Much of the December SB crush report depends on what the correct SBM export number is but at first glance,the report indicated a sizable jump in domestic meal use for the month with YTD on track versus the USDA

·      Investors betting on fiscal & monetary policy to counter Coronavirus effects.  Asia: Lower: Nikkei, +0.49%; Shanghai, +1.34%; Hang Seng, +1.21%; EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +1.16%; FTSE, +1.38%; CAC, +1.24%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Higher—DOW, +314; S&P, +36.5; NAS, +114.5.  EXTERNALS: March crude, +$0.70 @ $50.81; Gold: -$8.00 @ $1,574; Mar $ Index, +.090 @ 97.715

• T-storm Weather®: a slow-moving system interacts with a muggy air mass to produce heavy rain in Argentina this week, followed by an extended period of coolness, resulting in ideal weather for sensitive corn and soybeans.  Heavy rain also eases dryness in central and northern Brazil as a stalled cool front triggers thunderstorms each day over the next week, aiding later-planted crops at the expense of sluggish harvesting and planting until a drier period starts next week
• CH, up $.0275 @ $3.8150; CK, up $.0325 @ $3.8775.  The funds open the week with more selling, 5 K  
• SH, up $.0725 @ $8.8425; SK, up $.0750 @ $8.9825.  Funds: Even SB; sld 3 SBM & bot 3 K SBO.  Board crush: $0.94, -3; LY, $0.97,-; 
• WH, up $.07 @ $5.6250; WK, up $.0650 @ $5.6025.  Funds continue to sell wheat as wel, 3 K on Monday                  

CORN/SORGHUM

·     ​ U.S. corn exports for the 19/20 marketing year through Jan. 30 totaled 422 mbu, which is 52% below last year’s total of 886 mbu

·      ATI Research: U.S. 2019/20 corn ending stocks are forecast at 2.107 bbu versus the latest USDA estimate of 1.892 bbu

• T-storm Weather®: in Argentina, a large and slow-moving system interacts with a hot (and muggy) air mass to produce heavy rainfall of 1.50” to 3.00” over today-Fri., rapidly improving topsoil and subsoil moisture on corn

·      Consultant: 2019/20 Brazil corn is unch at 100.0 MMT.  There is a strong price incentive to plant safrinha (double crop) corn, but a late soybean harvest is going to push some safrinha planting to the very limit of the planting window

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      Consultant: 2019/20 Brazil soybean est. increased 1.0 MMT to 123.0 MMT; neutral/slightly higher bias going forward

·      U.S. soybean exports for the 19/20 crop year through Jan. 30 were 977 mbu, which is 23% above last year’s 793 mbu

·      ATI Research: U.S. 2019/20 soybean ending stocks forecast at 0.470 bbu versus the latest USDA estimate of 0.475 bbu

• T-storm Weather®: in Argentina, a large and slow-moving system interacts with a hot (and muggy) air mass to produce heavy rainfall of 1.50” to 3.00” over today-Fri., rapidly improving topsoil and subsoil moisture on soybeans

·      U.S. wheat exports for the 19/20 crop year through Jan. 30 were 611 mbu, which is 12% above last year’s 545 mbu

·      T-storm Weather®: U.S. SRW wheat in Delta & southeast third of the Corn Belt turns much wetter through mid-Feb.

ENERGY

·      Firm: CLH20, +$0.70 @ $50.81; EBJ, +$0.54 @ $55.15; EBJ-QCLJ, -.13; RBH, +.0144; NGH, +.005; HOH, +.0186

·      Chicago ethanol was $.075 higher Monday at $1.3475; basis values versus Chicago were mixed:  NYC, -$.0025 @ $.1025; Gulf, +$0.0150 @ $.1150; Dallas, -$.0025 @ +$.0725; Tampa, +$.0025 @ +$.1824; LA, -$.0075 @ +$.2025

·      Ethanol RINs values, firm: 2018’s, +1.8750 @ 12 -13 ¾; 2019’s, +1.3725 @ 13 -14 ¾; 2020’s, +1.125 @ 18 ¾-20 ½                                 ​;                         ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;           

·     ​; The March RBOB/February ethanol spread narrowed in $.0150 Monday to $.1337/gallon       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                     ​;   

• Choice boxed beef declined $1.44 on Monday to $211.56 and is $2.03 lower versus a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price fell $2.26 v. last week to $122.04/cwt, and is down $1.83 v. last year

·      USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 21-cents on Mon. to $68.74 & is $7.82 lower versus last week  

·        Current nearby board hog crush value is $39.21/cwt vs. last week’s $48.58, last month’s $52.49 & last year’s $36.25      

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®