HIGHLIGHTS

·      USDA reports at 11:00 am CST: Supply and Demand Estimates; Grain Stocks; Crop Production; Winter Wheat/Canola Seedings

·      TRENDS (4:30 am)—Higher: CH, +$.0125; SH, +$.01; WH, +$.0050; KWH, +$.0125 

·      What caught my eye: Lots of elements in today’s S&D #’s with particular focus on corn acreage and yield as well as 1^st quarter feed/residual use and the export outlook.  Bean production, exports and crush could also be factors

·      Global stocks “wobble”, U.S. jobs report out. Asia: Mostly firm: Nikkei, +0.47%; Shanghai, -0.08%; Hang Seng, +0.27%; EUROPE: Up—DAX, +0.25%; FTSE, +0.01%; CAC, +0.04%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Up—DOW, +61; S&P, +8.00; NAS, +31.75.  EXTERNALS: Mar crude: -$0.21 @ $59.23; Gold: -4.50 @ $1,550; $ Index, +.063 @ 97.513.  Del’ys: SBM, 292; SBO, 354; RR, 3; SB, 141

·      T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, below-normal rain continues over the next 10 days central & north, while several rains south ease dryness in Rio Grande do Sul & maintain adequate soil moisture near Paraná.  Better-organized rains follow over Jan. 18-23 in central & northern Brazil, which should be needed since totals over the last week were not enough to fully break areas of dryness & drought.  In Argentina, thunderstorms continue through Jan. 15, followed by a much drier period with no sustained heat

• CH, up $.0125 @ $3.8450; CK, up $.0125 @ $3.9125.  Funds sold 2 K ahead of the Januay WASDE   
• SH, up $.01 @ $9.4450; SK, up $.0075 @ $9.5725.  Funds: sold 4 K SB, 2 SBM, even 3 SBO.  Board crush: $0.96, +4; LY, $1.02,-3; 
• WH, up $.0050 @ $5.6275; WK, up $.0025 @ $5.6550.  Funds bought 7 K, aided by solid gains in overseas futures        

 CORN/SORGHUM

·      Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CST.  Trade expects 14-28 mbu for 19/20 corn

·      USDA Crop Production report: Avg. trade est. for 2019 U.S. corn crop is 13.502 bbu (range of 13.030-13.701)

·      USDA Grain Stocks report: Avg. trade estimate for Dec. 1 U.S. corn stocks is 11.472 bbu (range of 10.926-11.650)

·      USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. trade est. for 2019/20 U.S. corn carryout is 1.776 bbu (range of 1.479-2.124)

·      USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. trade est. for 2019/20 Brazil corn crop is 100.8 MMT; Argentina, 49.7 MMT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      Export Sales report.  Trade expects 15-29 for 19/20 soybeans; 75-250 for 19/20 soymeal; and 0-25 for 19/20 soyoil

·      USDA Crop Production report: Avg. trade est. for 2019 U.S. soybean crop is 3.513 bbu (range: 3.457-3.591)

·      USDA Grain Stocks report: Avg. trade est. for Dec. 1 U.S. soybean stocks is 3.190 bbu (range of 3.023-3.379)

·      USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. trade est. for 2019/20 U.S. soybean carryout is 0.431 bbu (range of 0.310-0.520)

·      USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. trade est. for 2019/20 Brazil soybean crop is 123.1 MMT; Argentina, 52.8 MMT

·      Export Sales report.  Trade expects 7-20 mbu for 19/20 all wheat

·      USDA Grain Stocks report: Avg. trade est. for Dec. 1 U.S. wheat stocks is 1.914 bbu (range of 1.750-2.047)

·      USDA Winter Wheat/Cannola Seedings report: Avg. trade est. for 2020 winter wheat is 30.6 mil acre (range 29.9-32.2)

ENERGY

·      Mixed: CLH20, -$0.21 @ $59.23; EBH, -$0.14 @ $65.24; EBH-QCLH, +.08; RBH, +.0058; NGH, -.017; HOH, -.0041

·      Chicago ethanol was $.0080 lower at $1.2650; basis values versus Chicago mixed:  NYC, -$.0095 @ $.1150; Gulf, -.0150 @ $.1350; Dallas, +.0080 @ +$.1050; Tampa, +.0080 @ +$.2150; LA, -$.0120 @ +$.25

·      Ethanol RINs values were firmer: 2018’s, +1.50 @ 6-7; 2019’s, +1.1250 @ 9 -10; 2020’s, +0.8750 @ 15 -16                                               &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                 

&mi​ddot;      The February RBOB/February ethanol spread widened $.0049 on Thursday to $.3187       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                               &nbs​p;        

• ​ Choice boxed beef increased 46-cents on Thursday to $209.96 and is $1.47 higher versus a week ago
• October live cattle futures on Thursday closed at $119.325—the highest settlement price for the life of the contract

·      USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 8-cents on Thu. to $71.85 and is $1.56 lower versus a week ago

·        CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.22 on Thu. to $59.56.  February futures fell $2.000 but are still $7.465 above the index      

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®