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TRENDS Higher CH, Up 1, SF, Up 3, WH, Up 3

December 3, 2019 06:58 AM

Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.

 

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Higher: CH, +$.0125; SF, +$.04; WH, +$0.0325 KWH, +$.0450.  Del’y: SBM, 319; SBO, 878; HRW, 11

·       What caught my eye:  SON U.S. SB inspections of 586 mbu are up 15% year to year with a 232 increase in shipments to China more than offsetting a 136 mbu decline to other markets. 35% reduction in NON PRC/UNK O/S sales worrisome for Q2

·       China trade deal? Trump says after 2020 election. ASIA: Mostly lower—Nikkei, -0.64%; Shanghai, +0.31%; Hang Seng, -0.20%; EUROPE: Mostly lower—DAX, +0.52%; FTSE, -1.04%; CAC, -0.40%.  WALL STREET—Futures, Down—DOW, -113; S&P, -10; NAS, -37.25.  EXTERNALS: Feb crude: -$0.16 $55.77; Gold: +$5.90 $1,475; $ Index, -.05 @ 97.81

·       T-storm Weather®: below to much-below normal rain affects key areas of Argentina over the next 10 days, increasing dryness into mid-month as early-corn & sunflowers become more sensitive.  Some rain potentially develops later next week, but the rain threat is low until more can be understood about the setup.  In Brazil, occasional thunderstorms affect central & north to limit dryness concerns, & thunderstorms in southern areas & Paraguay Wed.-Thu. also limit concerns despite a drier period that follows

  • CH, up $.0125 @ $3.8325; CK, up $.0150 @ $3.88.  The funds began the month of December buying 2 K
  • SF, up $.04 @ $8.7450; SH, up $.04 @ $8.8925.  Funds: Sold 6 SB, 6 SBO, even  SBM.  Board Crush: $1.00, +4; LY, $0.97
  • WH, up $.0325 @ $5.3850; WK, up $.0275 @ $5.4175.  Fund selling totaled 5 K on Monday                

CORN/SORGHUM

·      ​; U.S. corn harvest is 89%, up 5 points from last week but below 97% last year & the 5-year avg. of 98%.  North Dakota at 36% vs. 95% avg.; South Dakota, 80% vs. 98% avg; Wisconsin 66% vs. 91% avg.; & Michigan 66% vs. 89% avg.

·       T-storm Weather®: dryness & mild temps (highs in 30s, 40s, & 50s), gradually diminish snowpack in the Dakotas & NW Corn Belt the next 5-7 days to improve corn harvest prospects with time, though muddiness will linger for some time

·       Consultant: Brazil 2019/20 corn crop estimate is steady this week at 102.0 MMT with a neutral bias going forward

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks estimate for 19/20 U.S. corn is 1.919 bbu vs. November USDA estimate of 1.910  

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       U.S. soybean harvest is 96%, up 2 points from last week but below 97% last year and the 5-year average of 99%

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks est. for 19/20 U.S. soybeans is 0.424 bbu vs. November USDA estimate of 0.475

·       Consultant: Brazil 2019/20 soybean production estimate is unchanged this week at 123.0 MMT with a neutral bias

·       T-storm Weather®: 57% of soybeans in Argentina were drier than normal the last 30 days compared to 2% last year

·       latest NWS December forecast: above normal temps for all U.S. winter wheat (much above normal in Southern Plains)

·       T-storm Weather®: widespread precipitation affected the central U.S. over the last five days, leaving many areas wetter than normal, including 71% & 60% of U.S. HRW wheat and SRW wheat production over the last seven days

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLG20, -$0.16 $55.75; EBG, -$0.16 @ $60.76; EBG-QCLGunch; RBG, +.0007; NGG, +.064; HOG, -.0079

·       Chicago ethanol was off $.07 @ $1.5350; basis values versus Chicago were firmer:  NYC, +$.0275 @ $.0725; Gulf, +$.0150@ $.05; Dallas, +$.02 @ +$.0750; Tampa, +$.0150 @ +$.1750; +$07 @ +$.20

·       Ethanol RINs values were steady/firm: 2018’s, unch @ 5 ½- 6 ½; 2019’s, +.1250 @ 12 ½ -12 ¾; 2020’s, unch @ 20 -21                                         ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;               

· ​;      The January RBOB/December ethanol spread narrowed further, $.0227 to $.1043 on Monday      

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                &​nbsp;      

  • C​hoice boxed beef firmed 49-cents on Monday to $232.61 but is still down 63-cents versus a week ago
  • 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $2.25 v. last week at $118.21/cwt, and is $1.11 higher v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained $1.29 on Monday to $82.46 but is still down 73-cents v. last week

·       Current nearby board hog crush value is $43.65/cwt vs. last week’s $43.27, last month’s $47.85 & last year’s $41.33  

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

 



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