Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.

HIGHLIGHTS

·      TRENDS—Higher: CH, +$.0050; SH, +$.0475; WH, +$.0475 KWH, +$.0450 

·      What caught my eye: The Dec 1 stocks report showed more on-farm corn in the Northern Plains as well as the Western Corn Belt and the Mid-South compared to a year ago.  Seems like this & quality, could have a negative basis impact as spring approaches

·      Worries over Coronavirus ease, global markets rally.  Asia: Higher: Nikkei, +1.02%; Shanghai, +1.25%; Hang Seng, +0.42%; EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +1.32%; FTSE, +0.81%; CAC, +1.06%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Higher—DOW, +273; S&P, +28.75; NAS, +96.75  EXTERNALS: March crude, +$1.38 @ $50.99; Gold: -$0.60 @ $1,555; Mar $ Index, +.131 @ 97.940

• T-storm Weather®: a slow-moving system interacts with a muggy air mass in Argentina to produce heavy rainfall this week, which is ideal for late-corn and soybean development because coolness follows and some thunderstorms return 5 to 7 days later. A mix of weather continues in Brazil as heavy rain in the central and north aid later-planted crops at the expense of slowed harvesting and planting, though rains will be less frequent next week; southern Brazil stays drier than normal despite some thunderstorms
• CH, up $.0.0050 @ $3.8275; CK, up $.0075 @ $3.8875.  Funds sold 5 K as optimism on export demand returns to the market  
• SH, up $.0475 @ $8.8425; SK, up $.05 @ $8.98.  Funds: Bot 2 SB; sld 2 SBM & bot 5 K SBO.  Board crush: $0.93, -1; LY, $0.96,-;  
• WH, up $.0475 @ $5.62; WK, up $.0425 @ $5.5875.  The funds were modest buyers on Tuesday, 2 K         

    CORN/SORGHUM

​ ·      Consultant: Argentina corn production est. for 2019/20 is unch at 47.5 MMT with a neutral bias going forward.  Even though the weather has been adequate in Argentina, some of the corn was pollinating during periods of dry weather

• T-storm Weather: in central and northern Brazil, thunderstorms occur in varying areas each day over the next week, resulting in heavy rainfall of 3.00” to 5.00”.  The end result is planting of safrinha (double crop) corn slows

·      Ethanol margins: $0.11 per gallon—up vs. $0.07 last week but below $0.13 in 2019.  EIA report at 9:30 am CST

·      ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. corn exports is in the 25-30 mbu per week range compared to 34.7 mbu last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      Consultant: Argentina soybean crop est. is increased 1.0 MMT to 53.0 MMT with a neutral to maybe slightly higher bias.  In most areas, the weather continues to be good enough for more-or-less normal soybean development

• T-storm Weather: in central & northern Brazil, thunderstorms occur each day over the next week; result is heavy rain of 3.00”-5.00”, slowing soybean harvesting.  However, below-normal rain impacts southern Brazil through two weeks

·      T-storm Weather: Rain and snow into mid-Feb. eases dryness in the driest winter wheat areas of Russia and Ukraine

·      ATI Research: Combined wheat exports from Russia & Ukraine the past month averaged ~4 mbu more (23%) vs. 2019

ENERGY

·      Firm: CLH20, +$1.38 @ $50.99; EBJ, +$1.70 @ $55.83; EBJ-QCLJ, +.50; RBH, +.0361; NGH, -.033; HOH, +.0513

·      EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +2.8 (+4.2); Gasoline, +2.1 (+2.0); Distillates, 0.0 (-1.8).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.029 mbpd (range: 1.006-1.055).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 23.995 mb (range 22.220-24.644)

·      Chicago ethanol was $.01375 higher at $1.36125; basis values versus Chicago were mixed:  NYC, -$.00375 @ $.09875; Gulf, +$0.0075 @ $.1225; Dallas, +$.00625 @ +$.07875; Tampa, -$.01375 @ +$.16875; LA, -$.02375 @ +$.17875

·      Ethanol RINs values, UP: 2018’s, +2.625 @ 15 -16; 2019’s, +2.25 @ 14 ¾-17 ½ 2020’s, +2.00 @ 20 ¼ -23                                                      &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                

·&nbs​p;     The March RBOB/February ethanol spread was again tighter, narrowing $.0435 to $.0902/gallon       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                               ​         

Choice boxed beef was 63-cents lower on Tuesday at $210.93 and is down $1.92 compared to last week
• Since Jan. 23, choice boxed beef has declined $4.39 (2.0%) and is at the lowest level since Jan. 13

·      USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.99 on Tuesday to $66.75 & is down $8.30 compared to a week ago  

·      CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.31 on Tue. to $61.10.  February futures firmed $0.450 but are $4.350 below the index      

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®