HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Firmer: CN, +$.0175; SN, +$.0075; WN, +$.0050; KWN, +$.0175

·       What caught my eye:  Trade estimates call for a 59 K bpd increase in ethanol production to 900 K.  That would likely put year-to-date corn/milo grind down approximately 450 mbu; USDA forecast is for a 514 mbu annual decline this year 

·       Fauci:  parts of U.S. beginning to see a “disturbing surge” of Covid-19 cases.  Asia: Mostly lower-- Nikkei, -0.07%; Shanghai, +0.30%; Hang Seng, -0.50%; EUROPE: Down—DAX, -2.11%; FTSE, -2.18%; CAC, -1.80%.  WALL STREET: Futures, lower --DOW, -271; S&P, -28.25; NAS, -56.25.   EXTERNALS: Aug crude, -$0.75 @ $39.62; Gold: +$12.20 @ $1,794; Sep $ Index, +.122@ 96.730

·       T-storm Weather®: the most likely scenario for U.S. crops is for coolness to be accompanied by some showers through today.  A transition to a hot period unfolds from west to east over Thu.-Sun. as a large system in the Northwest produces a large flow of southerly winds, causing upper-level high pressure to form.  Some thunderstorms accompany the transition to heat later this week and weekend, after which best chances are in / near the Dakotas where heat and the jet stream intersect

• CN, up $.0175 @ $3.2675; CU, up $.0125 @ $3.3025.  The funds were again sellers with 5 K estimated on Tuesday                       
• SN, up $.0075 @ $8.7575; SQ, up $.0050 @ $8.7250.  Funds: sold—2 SB, 1 SBM, 2 SBO.  Board crush: $0.65 (N/N), -1; LY, $1.02
• WN, up $.0050 @ $4.8650; WU, dn $.0025 @ $4.9075.  The funds bought 1 K yesterday                 

CORN/SORGHUM

·       T-storm Weather®: a large system (which causes heat next week across U.S. Corn Belt) most likely weakens or ejects eastward July 4-8 to produce some cooling & rain, but is unlikely to mark a substantial change to a cool & wet pattern

·       U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report scheduled to be released at 9:30 am CDT

·       Consultant: Brazil corn crop estimate is unchanged this week at 96.0 MMT, with a neutral bias going forward; safrinha (double crop) corn harvest is pegged at 7.9% as of June 19, according to Arc Mercosul

·       T-storm Weather®: 0% of Ukraine corn was drier than normal the last 30 days, but it has been very warm last 2 weeks

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather®: a large system (which causes heat next week across U.S. Corn Belt) most likely weakens or ejects eastward July 4-8 to produce some cooling & rain, but is unlikely to mark a substantial change to a cool & wet pattern

·       ATI Research: bias on U.S. soybean exports over the up-coming 4-week period is 15-20 mbu per week

·       T-storm Weather®: spring wheat in Canada & the U.S. remain probable to turn stormy next week, which needs to verify given lingering dryness in parts of Manitoba, Saskatchewan & North Dakota

·       ATI Research: bias on U.S. wheat exports over the up-coming 4-week period is lowered to 18-20 mbu per week

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLQ20, -$0.75 @ $39.62; EBQ, -$0.62 @ $42.01; EBQ-QCLQ, +$0.13; RBN, -.0223; NGN, -.013; HON, -.0011

·       EIA Report Estimates were unavailable (API):  crude (+1.7); Gasoline (-0.3); Distillates (-3.9).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 0.900 mbpd (range: 0.875-0.925).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 21.332 mb (range NA)

·       Chicago ethanol fell $.01925 to  $1.3055; basis, mostly firm:  NYC, +$.02425 @ +$.1395; Gulf, +$.00175 @ +$.10450; Dallas, +$.01925 @ +$.1045; Tampa, +$.00425 @ +$.17950; LA, -$.00575 @ +$.26950

·       Ethanol RIN values, weaker: 2019’s, -1.00 @ 39 – 41; 2020’s: -1.50 @ 42 ½ 43 ½                              ​;                         ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                                      

·  ​;     The July RBOB/July ethanol spread expanded $.0281 to +.05940 per gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY              ​                         ​

• Choice boxed beef declined $2.25 on Tuesday to $211.81, and is down $16.08 compared to last week   
• Week-to-week declines in choice boxed beef values have taken place for 28 consecutive trading days
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $1.97 lower on Tue. at $62.25, and is down $1.29 versus a week ago  
• CME Lean Hog Index firmed$0.11 on Tue. to $45.17.  July futures gained $0.075 and are $1.73 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®