HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Firmer:  CK, +$.02; SK, +$.0150; WK, +$.03; KWK, +$.06

·       What caught my eye: Corn planting is off to a fairly rapid start; this week should see excellent progress in the particularly the Western Corn Belt, lending support to the argument for producers to plant the March 31^st intentions # of 97.0, or more 

·       Most global equity markets are higher as virus restrictions begin to ease. Asia: Mostly  weaker-- Nikkei, -0.06%; Shanghai, -0.19%; Hang Seng, +1.22%; EUROPE: Firmer—DAX, +1.66%; FTSE, +1.54%; CAC, +1.31%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Higher--DOW, +307; S&P, +33.25; NAS, +105.   EXTERNALS: June crude, -$0.91@ $11.87; Gold: -$2.00 @ $1,722; Sep $ Index, -0.507 @ 99.600

·       T-storm Weather®: in the U.S., mainly dry and mild weather affect the Plains through the weekend as maximum reach the 70s-80s-90s most days.  Conversely, widespread rain affects the Corn Belt and Delta today-Wednesday – especially east and south.  A series of systems then pass from Sunday (May 3) forward, producing  rain and thunderstorms within a wide area, including HRW wheat in much of the Plains at one point or another next week

• CK, up $.02 @ $3.0750; CN, up $.0225 @ $3.1550.  Heavy fund selling, estimated at 15 K  
• SK, up $.0150 @ $8.3050; SN, up $.01 @ $8.3750.  Funds sold 4 K SB, 3 K SBM, 4 K SBO. Board crush: $0.74 (K/K), -2; LY, $1.09
• WK, up $.03 @ $5.24; WN, up $.0325 @ $5.28.  Fund selling resumed yesterday with 5 K estimated      

CORN/SORGHUM

·      &nbs​p;USDA estimates U.S. corn planting progress as of April 26 at 27% vs. 12% last year and the 5-year average of 20%; U.S. sorghum planting progress as of April 26 was pegged at 20% vs. 19% last year and the 5-year average of 23%

·       T-storm Weather®: in the U.S., widespread rain occurs today-Wed., generating 0.67” to 1.33” across the Delta and eastern two-thirds of the Corn Belt, and 0.33” to 0.67” in the western Corn Belt.  Several days of dry weather follows

·       Consultant: the 2019/20 Brazilian corn estimate was lowered 1.0 million tons this week to 97.0 million with a neutral to lower bias going forward

·       ATI Research: range for near-term U.S. corn exports remain at 45-50 mbu per week

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA estimates U.S. soybean planting progress as of April 26 at 8% vs. 2% last year and the 5-year average of 4%

·       T-storm Weather®: in the U.S., widespread rain occurs today-Wed., generating 0.67” to 1.33” across the Delta and eastern two-thirds of the Corn Belt, and 0.33” to 0.67” in the western Corn Belt.  Several days of dry weather follows

·       ATI Research: U.S. winter wheat Good/Excellent dn 3% to 54%; model pegs ‘20 crop @ 1.199 bbu; -17mbu v last week

·       USDA est. spring wheat planting progress as of April 26 at 14% vs. 11% last year but well below the 5-year avg. of 29%

·       T-storm Weather®:  most U.S. HRW wheat will be dry & very warm next 5 days.  Rain then affects northern KS & all points north May 3-4, then across a wider area May 5 forward; 0.50”-1.50” is probable for most HRW wheat May 3-9

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLM20, -$0.91 @ $11.87; EBM, +$.43 @ $20.42; EBM-QCLM, +$1.36; RBM, +.0268; NGM, +.008; HOM, +.0070

·       Chic​ago ethanol eased $.0095 on Monday to $.9189/gallon; basis, mixed:  NYC, -$.0055 @ $.0470; Gulf, +$.0095 @ $.0720; Dallas, -$.0005 @ +$.0920; Tampa, +$.0195 @ +$.2070; LA, -$.0155 @ +$.1220

·       Ethanol RINs values, mixed 2018’s, unch @ 20 ½ -21; 2019’s, +0.50 @ 27-28; 2020’s: -3.75 @ 35 -35 ½                                &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;                                                 &nbs​p;                       

·       The May RBOB/May ethanol spread inverted another to $.0129 to $.2876/gallon, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                       &nbs​p;               

• Choice boxed beef increased $18.47 on Monday to $311.84, and is up $63.46 compared to last week
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was dn $5.59 v. last week at $96.69/cwt, and is dn $30.00 v. last year
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $6.75 on Mon. to $82.69, & is $17.17 higher versus a week ago
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $31.13/cwt vs. last week’s $28.84, last month’s $42.29 & last year’s $65.17

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®