HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Firm/higher: CH, +0.0075; SF, +$.0925; WH, +$.0375; KWH, +$.0225. May Dalian Futures: SK, +13; CK, +2

·       What caught my eye: China bot more old crop U.S. beans (34 mbu); another cargo of new crop; IHS Markit reduces already tight U.S. c/o by 24 on smaller crop ideas and, China said to be considering switching some Feb Brazil loadings to the U.S--logistics

·       Congress seems close to a stimulus deal, markets pause

• Asia:  Lower:  Nikkei, -0.17%; Shanghai, -0.30%; Hang Seng, -0.67%
• EUROPE:  Mostly firm:  DAX, +0.09%; FTSE, +0.13%; CAC, -0.03% 
• WALL STREET: Firm, sort of –DOW futures, +8; S&P, +4; NAS, -.25
• EXTERNALS: Jan crude, -$0.067 @ $48.30; Gold: -$6.60 @ $1,884; Mar $ Index, +.124 @ 89.865
• T-storm Weather®: Rain Fri.-Sat. somewhat eases dryness concern in Argentina; 1.00"- 2.00" west, 0.50"-1.50" east.  An extended period of drying immediately follows & lasts 7-10 days.  The same system triggers scattered rain Sat.-Mon. in south Brazil; 1.00"-2.00" most probable.  A much drier period follows for at least 7-10 days.  The same cool front reaches central/northern Brazil Dec. 21-23 to start a seasonably-wet period; 3.00"-6.00" is most likely through Dec. 31, as rain forms in varying areas at varying times
• CH, up $.0075 @ $4.3325; CK, up $.0050 @ $4.3525.  Funds buy 15 K on strong exports and friendly longer-term S AM outlook     
• SF, up $.0925 @ $12.1050; SH, up $.10 @ $12.1550.  Funds: bot 10 SB, 4 SBM, 8 SBO. Board crush: $1.13; (F/F), -1; LY, $1.04
• WH, up $.0375 @ $6.1250; WK, up $.0275 @ $6.1250.  The funds bought 6 K yesterday—Russian export availability           

CORN/SORGHUM

·       December 2021 corn futures on Thu. closed at $4.15—highest settlement price for the contract since Oct. 23, 2019

·       ATI Research: Unshipped U.S. corn export sales for 20/21 as of Dec. 10 were a record 1.162 bbu—more than triple the 0.378 bbu from last year.  Mexico bought 28.1 mbu in latest reporting week; unknown destinations, 15.8; & China 9.1

·       T-storm Weather®: Rain occurs Sat.-Mon. over full-season corn in southern Brazil.  A fairly dry period then follows for 5-10 days.  The end result is for 2.00”-4.00” to fall over the next two weeks, with most rain over the next five days

·       Buenos Aires Grains Exchange pegs 2020/21 Argentina corn production at 47.0 MMT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Jan. soybean futures on Thu. closed at $12.01 ¼--first time nearby futures settled above $12.00 since Aug. 14, 2014

·       Unshipped U.S. soybean export sales for 20/21 on Dec. 10 were a record 0.787 bbu—up 123% vs. 0.352 bbu last year

·       T-storm Weather®: An uptick in rain starts Dec. 22-23 for soybeans in central & northern Brazil, then follows for 7- 10 days.  The likely result is for 3.00”-6.00” to fall over the next two weeks, compared to normal rainfall of ~5.00”-~5.50”

·       ATI Research: Unshipped U.S. SRW wheat export sales as of Dec. 10 were 16 mbu—dn 35% from the five-year average

·       T-storm Weather®: A total of 78% of Russia’s winter wheat production was drier-than-normal over the last 90 days

ENERGY

·       Easier: CLF21, -$0.06 @ $48.30; EBG, -$0.17 @ $51.33; EBG-CLG, -0.12; RBF, -.0042; NGF, +.032; HOF, -.0028

·       Chicago ethanol rose $.02375 on Thursday to $1.33.  Basis, mixed:  NYC, -$0.0175 @ $.05625; Gulf, +$.00625 @ +$.10; Dallas, +$.00125 @ +$.07; Tampa, +$.00125 @ +$.1750; LA, -$.03375 @ +$.14

·       Ethanol RINs, firm: 2019’s, +0.50 @ 69 ½ -71 ½; 2020’s, +0.50 @ 71 ½-73; 2021, +0.50 @ 72 ½-74                                            &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                         ​;                        ​          

·    &nbs​p;  The Jan RBOB/Jan ethanol spread is off $.0251 this morning to -$.0330 per gallon  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                    ​;   

<​li> Choice boxed beef increased $2.29 on Thursday to $209.51, but is still $5.08 lower compared to a week ago
• Est. for today’s USDA Cattle on Feed report: Dec. 1 on feed, 100.0%; Placed in Nov., 91.5%; Marketed in Nov., 98.1%
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.66 on Thu. to $72.03, and is down $5.55 compared to last week 
• Lean Hog Index fell $0.66 on Thu. to $64.39.  February futures eased $0.475 but remain $1.110 above the index 

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

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