HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Firm/dry outlook: CU, +$.0375; SU, +$.0775; WU, +$.05; KWU, +$.0375.  Del’y: SBM, 148; SBO, 57; SB, 87

·       What caught my eye:  Corn ratings and more specifically, those for Iowa will be of particularly interest this afternoon.  Some in the trade are expecting a 4 to 5-point decline in the nation-wide average to 66%, matching the 5-year average 

·       U.S. stock indices are higher this morning, difficult to find a supporting reason with Covid package in limbo

• • Asia—Mostly firm:  Nikkei, -0.83%; Shanghai, +2.34%; Hang Seng, +0.65%
  • EUROPE: Mostly firm—DAX, +0.08%; FTSE, +0.21%; CAC, -0.02% 
  • WALL STREET: Futures, firm --DOW, +54; S&P, +9.75; NAS, +63.75
  • EXTERNALS: Oct crude, -$0.05 @ $42.25; Gold: +$12.70 @ $1,957; Sep $ Index, -.120 @ 92.965

• T-storm Weather®: weekend rainfall was expectedly minor across the U.S. Corn Belt, with best totals in small parts of MN, NE, WI and OH.  Most corn and soybeans will be drier to much-drier than normal over the next 7 to 10 days, as upper-level high pressure to the west blocks energy and surface-level high pressure to the east limits humidities.  Temperatures fluctuate as each feature battles for position, leaving most near-normal as cool periods are offset by warmth into next week
• CU, up $.0375 @ $3.28; CZ, up $.0375 @ $3.4175.  The funds were even in Friday’s trading                           ​;                 
• SU, up $.0775 @ $9.0475; SX, up $.08 @ $9.0675.  Funds: bought 1 SB, 0 SBM, sold 1 BO.  Board crush: $0.89 (U/U), -3; LY, $1.04
• WU, up $.05 @ $5.05; WZ, up $.05 @ $5.1450.  The funds were buyers of an estimated 3 K to close out the week                  

CORN/SORGHUM

·       There is a wide range of estimates for today’s USDA corn crop ratings.  Some believe Good/Excellent ratings could be down as much as 5 points versus last week’s 71%, while others see a 1-2 point decline.  Last year’s total was 56%

·       T-storm Weather®:  rain chances improve Aug. 27-28 across the U.S. Corn Belt, with the most likely scenario being for 0.50”-1.00”  over Aug. 27-30 with best overall chances in a swath from MN through WI; coverage or amounts are lower with southward extent

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 15.9 mbu needed; 45.3 last week.  Milo—10.0 needed; 1.5 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: rain occurs across corn this week in western Ukraine, but dry central and east; turning very warm

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Crop Progress report: U.S. soybean Good/Excellent crop ratings projected at 70-75% v. 74% last week & 53% last year

·       T-storm Weather®:  rain chances improve Aug. 27-28 across the U.S. Corn Belt, with the most likely scenario being for 0.50”-1.00”  over Aug. 27-30 with best overall chances in a swath from MN through WI; coverage or amounts are lower with southward extent

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 38.9 mbu needed; 23.4 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: some rains continue on wheat in Australia near-term , but with less vigor than the last two weeks

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 18.8 mbu needed; 14.0 last week

ENERGY

·       Mixed:  CLV20, -$0.05 @ $42.26; EBV, -$0.13 @ $44.67; EBV-QCLV, -0.09; RBV, +.0127; NGV, +.004; HOV, -.0051

·       Chicago ethanol was $.00375 higher Friday to $1.30125; basis, mixed: NYC, +$.01625 @ +$.11875; Gulf, +.00125 @ +$.09875; Dallas, -$.00375 @ +$.07875; Tampa, -$.00375 @ +$.19875; LA, +$.00625 @ +$.19375

·       Ethanol RIN values, higher: 2019’s, +1.50 @ 38 -40; 2020’s: +1.125 @ 41 ½ -42                                          &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                         ​;                        ​             

·       The Sep RBOB/August ethanol spread is trading -$.0022 this morning, up $.0180, premium ethanol

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                 &n​bsp;                     

• Choice boxed beef soared $3.29 on Fri. to $214.24 (the largest one-day gain since May 12), & is up $8.77 v. last week 
• October live cattle futures on Fri. closed at $110.225—the highest settlement price for the contract since Feb. 24
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $1.17 higher on Fri. at $74.42, and is up $3.00 versus a week ago
• CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.36 on Fri. to $53.84.  October futures gained $0.675 but are $0.815 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Firm/dry outlook: CU, +$.0375; SU, +$.0775; WU, +$.05; KWU, +$.0375.  Del’y: SBM, 148; SBO, 57; SB, 87

·       What caught my eye:  Corn ratings and more specifically, those for Iowa will be of particularly interest this afternoon.  Some in the trade are expecting a 4 to 5-point decline in the nation-wide average to 66%, matching the 5-year average 

·       U.S. stock indices are higher this morning, difficult to find a supporting reason with Covid package in limbo

• • Asia—Mostly firm:  Nikkei, -0.83%; Shanghai, +2.34%; Hang Seng, +0.65%
  • EUROPE: Mostly firm—DAX, +0.08%; FTSE, +0.21%; CAC, -0.02% 
  • WALL STREET: Futures, firm --DOW, +54; S&P, +9.75; NAS, +63.75
  • EXTERNALS: Oct crude, -$0.05 @ $42.25; Gold: +$12.70 @ $1,957; Sep $ Index, -.120 @ 92.965

• T-storm Weather®: weekend rainfall was expectedly minor across the U.S. Corn Belt, with best totals in small parts of MN, NE, WI and OH.  Most corn and soybeans will be drier to much-drier than normal over the next 7 to 10 days, as upper-level high pressure to the west blocks energy and surface-level high pressure to the east limits humidities.  Temperatures fluctuate as each feature battles for position, leaving most near-normal as cool periods are offset by warmth into next week
• CU, up $.0375 @ $3.28; CZ, up $.0375 @ $3.4175.  The funds were even in Friday’s trading                                    &nbs​p;       
• SU, up $.0775 @ $9.0475; SX, up $.08 @ $9.0675.  Funds: bought 1 SB, 0 SBM, sold 1 BO.  Board crush: $0.89 (U/U), -3; LY, $1.04
• WU, up $.05 @ $5.05; WZ, up $.05 @ $5.1450.  The funds were buyers of an estimated 3 K to close out the week                  

CORN/SORGHUM

·       There is a wide range of estimates for today’s USDA corn crop ratings.  Some believe Good/Excellent ratings could be down as much as 5 points versus last week’s 71%, while others see a 1-2 point decline.  Last year’s total was 56%

·       T-storm Weather®:  rain chances improve Aug. 27-28 across the U.S. Corn Belt, with the most likely scenario being for 0.50”-1.00”  over Aug. 27-30 with best overall chances in a swath from MN through WI; coverage or amounts are lower with southward extent

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 15.9 mbu needed; 45.3 last week.  Milo—10.0 needed; 1.5 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: rain occurs across corn this week in western Ukraine, but dry central and east; turning very warm

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Crop Progress report: U.S. soybean Good/Excellent crop ratings projected at 70-75% v. 74% last week & 53% last year

·       T-storm Weather®:  rain chances improve Aug. 27-28 across the U.S. Corn Belt, with the most likely scenario being for 0.50”-1.00”  over Aug. 27-30 with best overall chances in a swath from MN through WI; coverage or amounts are lower with southward extent

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 38.9 mbu needed; 23.4 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: some rains continue on wheat in Australia near-term , but with less vigor than the last two weeks

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 18.8 mbu needed; 14.0 last week

ENERGY

·       Mixed:  CLV20, -$0.05 @ $42.26; EBV, -$0.13 @ $44.67; EBV-QCLV, -0.09; RBV, +.0127; NGV, +.004; HOV, -.0051

·       Chicago ethanol was $.00375 higher Friday to $1.30125; basis, mixed: NYC, +$.01625 @ +$.11875; Gulf, +.00125 @ +$.09875; Dallas, -$.00375 @ +$.07875; Tampa, -$.00375 @ +$.19875; LA, +$.00625 @ +$.19375

·       Ethanol RIN values, higher: 2019’s, +1.50 @ 38 -40; 2020’s: +1.125 @ 41 ½ -42                                              &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;         

·       The Sep RBOB/August ethanol spread is trading -$.0022 this morning, up $.0180, premium ethanol

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                    &n​bsp;                  

• Choice boxed beef soared $3.29 on Fri. to $214.24 (the largest one-day gain since May 12), & is up $8.77 v. last week 
• October live cattle futures on Fri. closed at $110.225—the highest settlement price for the contract since Feb. 24
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $1.17 higher on Fri. at $74.42, and is up $3.00 versus a week ago
• CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.36 on Fri. to $53.84.  October futures gained $0.675 but are $0.815 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®