HIGHLIGHTS

·       USDA Supply/Demand report at 11:00 am CDT

·       TRENDS—Firm: CZ, +$.0175; SX, +$.06; WZ, +$.0250; KWU, +$.05.  Delys: SBM, 60; SBO, 227; Corn, 0; SB, 2; SRW, 11

·       What caught my eye: Should be an interesting corn report today . . . U.S. crop size and feed/residual impact; lower Ukraine production/exports perhaps; certainly higher China imports and maybe some adjustment to Brazil’s exportable surplus

·       Futures trying to rebound after yesterday’s late, tech-driven sell-off

• Asia—Higher:  Nikkei, +0.74%; Shanghai, +0.79%; Hang Seng, +0.78%
• EUROPE: Mostly weaker—DAX, -0.43%; FTSE, +0.27%; CAC, -0.27%
• WALL STREET: Futures are higher --DOW, +157; S&P, +25.75; NAS, +97.25
• EXTERNALS: Oct crude, +$0.01 @ $37.31; Gold: -$11.30 @ $1,953; Sep $ Index, -.161 @ 93.170
• T-storm Weather®: rains focus on/near IA, MN, & MO next few days, but only a few showers recur in the Plains.  Temps turn much warmer from west to east the next several days as highs return to 70s-80s.  A cold front follows later next week to break warmth, accompanied by rain in Delta & eastern Corn Belt, but less-so in Plains where favorable weather for HRW wheat planting continue
• CZ, up $.0175 @ $3.6675; CH, up $.0175 @ $3.7675.  Heavy fund buying (10 K) on expectations of BIG Chinese corn imports            
• SX, up $.06 @ $9.8350; SF, up $.06 @ $9.8750.  Funds even SB, Bot 1 K SBM & 2 K SBO. Board crush: $0.74 (V/X), +2; LY, $0.89
• WX, up $.0250 @ $5.5075; WH, up $.0225 @ $5.5950.  The funds bought 4 K yesterday            

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Supply/De​mand report: avg. guess for 2020 U.S. corn crop is 14.891 bbu (range: 14.625-15.095) vs. 15.278 in August

·       Supply/Demand report: avg. guess for 2020 U.S. corn yield is 178.4 bpa (range: 176.0-181.0) vs. 181.8 in August

·       Supply/Demand report: avg. trade guess 20/21 U.S. corn carryout, 2.461 bbu (range: 2.153-2.697) vs. 2.756 in August

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects (4) - 4 mbu for 19/20 corn and 39 - 75 for 20/21

·       T-storm Weather®: strong cool front Sep. 16-17 breaks warming in U.S. Corn Belt; triggers scattered rain in ECB, Delta

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Supply/Dema​nd report: avg. guess for 2020 U.S. soybean crop is 4.292 bbu (range: 4.174-4.391) vs. 4.425 in August

·       Supply/Demand report: avg. guess for 2020 U.S. soybean yield is 51.7 bpa (range: 50.1-52.9) vs. 53.3 in August

·       Supply/Demand report: avg. trade guess 20/21 U.S. soybean carryout, 0.469 bbu (range: 0.379-0.551) v. 0.610 in Aug.

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects (4) - 4 mbu for 19/20 soybeans and 40 - 70 for 20/21; soymeal, 25 - 100 K MT for 19/20 and 200 - 400 for 20/21; soyoil, 0 - 10 for 19/20 and 0 - 30 for 20/21  

·       Supply/Demand: avg. trade guess for 20/21 U.S. all wheat carryout, 0.926 bbu (range: 0.900-0.978) v. 0.925 in Aug.

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 9 - 22 mbu for 20/21 wheat

ENERGY

·       Mixed:  CLV20, +$0.01 @ $37.31; EBX, -$0.18 @ $39.88; EBX-QCLV, -0.16; RBV, -.0023; NGV, -.0112; HOV, +.0046

·       Chicago ethanol rose $.01550 Thursday to $1.43; basis, mostly weaker: NYC, +$.01775 @ +$.13325; Gulf, -.0055 @ +$.08; Dallas, -$.0105 @ +$.0550; Tampa, -$.0155 @ +$.1450; LA, -$.0155 @ +$.11

·       Ethanol RIN values, unch to firm: 2019’s, +0.50 @ 45 – 49; 2020’s: unch @ 49 -51                                ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;       

·      &n​bsp;The Oct RBOB/Sept ethanol spread is trading -.2854 this morning, off $.0104

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY               &n​bsp;                       

• Choice boxed beef fell $2.12 on Thu., & is down $6.41 v. last week (this is largest week-to-week decline since June 26)
• Cash cattle trading was light on Thu., with prices pegged at $101 in Colorado—down $2.00 to $3.00 vs. a week ago
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $0.63 on Thu. to 79.95, & is $0.04 higher compared to a week ago
• CME Lean Hog Index was up $0.52 on Thu. at $62.44.  October futures soared $3.000 & are $1.935 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®