HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—firm: CZ, +$.0175; SX, +$.0075; WZ, +$.0650; KWZ, +$.07

·       What caught my eye: Interesting times . . . USDA raised optional origin corn sales to Ukraine to 4.9 million and there’s already 5 mbu of optional origin sales on the books to Argentina.  Traditional exporters in need of corn? 

·       Futures are slightly higher but seem to lack conviction

• Asia:  Mostly firm:  Nikkei, +0.18%; Shanghai, -1.04%; Hang Seng, +0.54%
• EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.98%; FTSE, +1.49%; CAC, +1.31%
• WALL STREET: Higher–DOW futures, +94; S&P, +7.25; NAS, +1
• EXTERNALS: Dec crude, +$0.23 @ $40.87; Gold: +$6.80 @ $1,911; Mar $ Index, -0.249 @ 92.680
• T-storm Weather®: The central U.S. stays divided by an incredibly sharp temperature gradient over the next week, leaving the northern ~20% of expected HRW wheat production near and below-freezing (32°F / 0°C) through mid-Tuesday, leaving October among the coldest of the last 125 years in the Dakotas.  Several systems and smaller waves of energy flow along the edge of coldness over the next week, causing rain and snow to affect the Corn Belt and northern Plains
• CZ, up $.0175 @ $4.18; CH, up $.02 @ $4.2025.  The funds bought 6 K, market accelerates efforts to put more in the pipeline         
• SX, up $.0075 @ $10.7450; SF, up $.0075 @ $10.73.  Funds bot 4 SB; 5 SBM; sold 5 SBO. Board crush: $1.38 (Z/X), +.11; LY, $0.82
• WZ, up $.0650 @ $6.2925; WH, up $.0625 @ $6.30.  More profit-taking as the funds sell 5 K                         

CORN/SORGHUM

​ ·       December 2020 corn futures on Thu. closed at $4.16 ¼--highest settlement for nearby corn futures since July 29, 2019

·       ATI Research: Total U.S. corn export sales as of Oct. 15 were a record 1.115 bbu—up 161% from last year.  China has so far bought 0.415 bbu in known sales, with a portion of the 0.144 bbu in sales to unknown destinations likely

·       T-storm Weather®: Heavy rain (1.00”-2.00”) occurs Sat. night/Sun. on a wide area of early-corn in Argentina, followed by 7-10 days of drying.  Thus, it is unclear if this will mark start of a wetter period, or simply rain within a drought 

·       Through Oct. 22, the 2020 crop insurance harvest price for December 2020 corn futures has averaged $3.9527

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Unshipped U.S. soybean export sales as of Oct. 15 were a record 1.247 bbu—up 180% from 0.444 bbu a year ago

·       T-storm Weather®: A total of 2.25”-4.50” of rain falls over the next two weeks across soybeans in central & northern Brazil, which is near to slightly above normal.  This will mark a more convincing start of the wet season in 5-10 days

·       Through Oct. 22, the 2020 crop insurance harvest price for November 2020 soybean futures has averaged $10.4916

·       ATI Research: unshipped U.S. HRW wheat export sales as of Oct. 15 were 60 mbu—the 2^nd highest total since 2010

·       T-storm Weather®: Despite recent rain, only 2%, 3%, 2% of Russia wheat was wetter than normal last 30, 60, 90 days

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLZ20, +$0.24 @ $43.87; EBZ, +$0.27 @ $42.73; EBZ-CLZ, +0.04; RBX, +.0036; NGX, -.063; HOX, +.0041

·       Chicago ethanol was $.02 higher at $1.5450; basis, quiet: NYC, unch @ $.08; Gulf, unch @ +$.1050; Dallas, unch @ +$.0850; Tampa, -$.0050 @ +$.17; LA, +$.01 @ +$.15

·       Ethanol RIN values, firmer: 2019’s, +1.00 @ 56-58; 2020’s: +1.00 @ 57 -58; 2021, +$1.25 @ 59-60                               &nbs​p;                                                 &nbs​p;                        ​;                         ​;                        ​             

· ​;      The Nov RBOB/Oct ethanol spread is $.0039 weaker at -$.3133 per gallon  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                 &nbs​p;     

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®