HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Firm:  CZ, +$.01; SF, +$.0225; WZ, +$.0250; KWZ, +$.0275

·       What caught my eye:  Looking at corn feed/residual use forecasts from the USDA, am a little surprised they are calling for a 243 mbu/4.3% decline despite GCAU’s are forecast to be up 3.1% this year and ethanol grind is basically flat

·       Trump: U.S./China are in the “final throes of a very important deal”.  ASIA: Mostly firm—Nikkei, +.0.28%; Shanghai, -0.13%; Hang Seng, +0.15%;   EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.26%; FTSE, +0.30%; CAC, +0.01%.  WALL STREET—Firm—DOW futures, +4; S&P, +3.50; NAS, +18.50.  EXTERNALS: Jan crude: +$0.17 @ $58.58; Gold: -$2.60 @ $1,465; $ Index, +.072 @ 98.324

• T-storm Weather®: near-normal rainfall occurs across Brazil and Paraguay over the next two weeks.  Key areas of Argentina remain likely to be drier or much-drier than normal, leaving extensive dryness in place leading into mid-December.  In the central U.S., high winds combine with rain and snow today to slow and stop harvesting in / near Nebraska and the Corn Belt, followed by widespread rain and snow Fri.-Sat. (including a blizzard in / near MN and SD) before a calmer period begins
• CZ, up $.01 @ $3.6850; CH, up $.0125 @ $3.7950.  The funds sold 5 K on Tuesday on a bleak outlook across the ag sector
• SF, up $.0225 @ $8.8650; SH, up $.0225 @ $9.01.  Funds: Sold 6 SB, 4 SBM and 3 SBO.  Board Crush: $0.97 -2; LY, $1.01
• WZ, up $.0250 @ $5.3275; WH, up $.0175 @ $5.3275.  The funds were modest buyers yesterday of an estimated 1 K                 

CORN/SORGHUM

• U.S. corn exports as of Nov. 21 were dn 57% v. 2018 & unshipped export sales as of Nov. 14 were dn 32% v. last year
• T-storm Weather®: a powerful system today produces 5”-10” of snow from NE through northwest IA, southeast SD, MN, & WI (& 0.25”-0.50” rain from IL east) accompanied by wind gust of 45-60 mph, stopping remaining corn harvest

·       Consultant: Argentina corn crop estimate is unchanged at 49.0 MMT, with a neutral to lower bias going forward

·       Ethanol margins: $0.26 per gallon—up vs. $0.23 last week and well above $0.07 in 2018.  EIA report at 9:30 am CST 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Consu​ltant: Argentina soybean crop estimate is unchanged at 54.0 MMT, with a neutral to lower bias going forward

• T-storm Weather®: Brazil soybeans need widespread rain with 71%, 55%, and 78% of the crop drier than normal over the last 14, 30, & 90 days, compared to 23%, 13%, & 9% last year.  Near-normal rain is forecast over the next 2 weeks
• ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. all wheat exports is 14-18 mbu per week 

·       T-storm Weather®: rain develops tonight into Thursday across southern HRW wheat areas of the U.S. Plains where 0.25” to 0.75” unfolds when an upper-level wave of energy spins off a large system to the west

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLF20, +$0.17 @ $58.58; EBF, +$.24 @ $64.51; EBF-QCLF, +.06; RBF, -.0038; NGF, +.008; HOF, +.0125

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -0.3 (+3.6); Gasoline, +0.5 (+4.4); Distillates, +1.1 (-0.7).  Ethanol production, 1.039 mbpd (range: 1.032-1.043); stocks, + 328 K barrels to 20.842 (range: 20.41-21.25)

·       Chicago ethanol soared $.1675 Monday to $1.7025; basis values were much weaker:  NYC, -$.1575 @ -$.0125; Gulf, -$.0925 @ +$.0275; Dallas, -$.1375 @ +.0125; Tampa, -16.75 @ +$.0875; LA, -$.1675 @ +$.0475

·       Ethanol RINs were weaker: 2018’s, -0.75 @ 5 ½-6; 2019’s, -1.25 @ 12 -13; 2020’s, -0.875 @ 20 ½ -21 ¼                                    &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                    

·       The December RBOB/December ethanol spread was $.0459/gallon wider at $.2047/gallon on Tuesday   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                            &n​bsp;          

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• Choice boxed beef was $1.40 lower on Tuesday at $231.84 and is down $7.17 compared to last week 
• December live cattle futures on Tue. closed at $120.400, the highest settlement price for the contract since April 24

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $2.03 on Tuesday to $81.16 and is $3.24 lower versus a week ago

·       CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.30 on Tue. to $57.88.  December futures fell $0.200 but are still $2.945 above the index  

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®