HIGHLIGHTS

·      TRENDS—Firm:  CZ, +$.0125; SF, +$.0275; WZ, +$.0050; KWZ, +$.0075

·      What caught my eye:  Much corn in the northern tier of the U.S. still to be harvested . . . In addition to ND 77% noted below, MI has 61%; Wi at 56% and SD, 46% remaining in the field

·      Global equity markets edge higher as economic fears dissipate.  ASIA: Mostly higher--Nikkei, -0.53%; Shanghai, +0.85%; Hang Seng, +1.55%.  EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +1.14%; FTSE, +1.20%; CAC, +0.57%.  WALL STREET—Futures are higher-- DOW, +112 S&P, +9.25; NAS, +35.25.  EXTERNALS: Dec crude: -$0.49 @ $56.56; Gold: -$6.50 @ $1,465; $ Index: +.072 @ 97.866

• T-storm Weather®: The forecast is fairly similar as heavy thunderstorms moisten soils for planting and growth in Argentina this week.  Thunderstorms also affect central and northern Brazil as cool fronts dissipate over the next two weeks, but only near-normal totals are expected.  Southern Brazil and Paraguay receive little to no rain through Sunday, which is unusual, but turn wetter next week as a cool front or two pass, though agricultural drought persists
• CZ, up $.0125 @ $3.69; CH, up $.0125 @ $3.7850.  The funds again sold 6 K—harvest and pressure from soybeans                
• SF, up $.0275 @ $9.13; SH, up $.0275 @ $9.2575.  Funds: Sold 6 SB, 4 SBM and bot 1 SBO.  Board Crush: $0.89, -3; LY, $1.05
• WZ, up $.0050 @ $5.0775; WH, up $.0050 @ $5.1125.  The funds opened the week buying 3 K                

CORN/SORGHUM

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·      U.S. corn harvest is 76% v. 89% last year and the 5-year avg. of 92%.  North Dakota at 23% vs. the 5-year avg. of 85%

·      T-storm Weather®: A potent system produces 0.25” to 0.75” of rain across most of the Corn Belt Wed. night and Thu. as two waves of energy converge on the Corn Belt and Delta with highest totals in / near IA and WI

·      Consultant: Estimate of 2019/20 Brazil corn production is steady at 103.0 MMT with a neutral to lower bias

·      ATI Research: Updated ending stocks estimate for 19/20 U.S. corn is 1.969 bbu compared to the November USDA estimate of 1.910 bbu

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

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·      U.S. soybean harvest is 91% vs. 91% for last year and 95% for the 5-year average.  Michigan at 76% vs. 91% avg.

·      Consultant: Brazil soybean production estimate for 2019/20 is lower 0.5 MMT this week at 123.0 MMT

·      ATI Research: Updated ending stocks estimate for 19/20 U.S. soybean is 0.454 bbu compared to the November USDA estimate of 0.475

·      MGEX Dec. 2019 wheat futures on Mon. closed at $5.03 ¼--lowest settlement price for the contract since Sep. 11

·      U.S. winter wheat crop condition ratings peg Good/Excellent at 52% vs. 54% last week and v. 56% last year. Winter wheat planting is estimated at 95% compared to 92% for last year and 95% for the 5-year average

ENERGY

&mi​ddot;      Weaker: CLZ19, -$0.49 @ $56.56; EBF, -$0.53 @ $61.91; EBF-QCLF, -.04; RBZ, -.0037; NGZ, -.016; HOZ, -.0106

·      Chicago ethanol was $.0125 lower at $1.5450; basis values were mixed:  NYC, -$.0125 @ +$.0950; Gulf, -$.01 @ +$.09; Dallas, +$.0075 @ +.0550; Tampa, +$.0025 @ +$.16; LA, +$.0075 @ +$.13

·      Ethanol RINs were steady/firm: 2018’s, +1.00 @ 6-7; 2019’s, +0.375 @ 12 -13; 2020’s, unch @ 21 ½ -22                                                   ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;    <​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr>

&​middot;      The December RBOB/December ethanol spread edged $.0020 wider on Monday to $.2070/gallon   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY          &​nbsp;       &nb​sp;                     

• ​Choice boxed beef declined $1.68 on Monday to $239.12 but is still  53-cents higher compared to last week 
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price gained $0.59 last week to $115.19/cwt and is $2.19 higher v. last year

·      USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $2.23 higher on Mon. at $88.71 and is up $3.24 versus a week ago

·        Current nearby board hog crush value is $48.12/cwt vs. last week’s $49.23, last month’s $53.00 and last year’s $41.11 

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®