HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Firm: CZ, +$.0075; SF, +$.01; WZ, +$.0225; KWZ, +$.0325.  Del’y:  RR, 135; SB, 0.  Dalian: C, +6 ½; SB, +29 ¾ 

·       What caught my eye: 2 attache reports from China TW:  the 1^st boosted the corn import forecast from 7 to 22 MMT (590 mbu)—low stocks/high prices.  The 2^nd, SB import forecast falls to 95 MMT, 5 MM below WASDE & mostly due to ample stx from LY

·       Split congress has markets thinking continued low taxes and light regulation; still, futures are lower

• Asia:  Mostly firm:  Nikkei, +0.91%; Shanghai, -0.24%; Hang Seng, +0.07%
• EUROPE: Mostly weaker—DAX, -0.76%; FTSE, +0.01%; CAC, -0.53%
• WALL STREET: Lower–DOW futures, -143; S&P, -24.5; NAS, -122
• EXTERNALS: Dec crude, -$1.29 @ $37.50; Gold: +$9.20 @ $1,956 Mar $ Index, -0.241 @ 92.245
• T-storm Weather®: In Brazil, most crop areas stay dry through Monday.  Scattered rain follows in southern areas Tue.-Wed., then return to central Brazil later next week and / or weekend.  Most areas are probable to be drier than normal over the next two weeks.  In Argentina, scattered thunderstorms starting Mon.-Tue. produce near-normal rainfall on the western ~33% of early-corn, sunflower, and soybean production, but less-so with eastward extent where below-normal rainfall is likely
• CZ, up $.0075 @ $4.10; CH, up $.0050 @ $4.1525. Active fund buying once again @ 15 K, aided by beans, among other things           
• SF, up $.01 @ $11.0475; SH, up $.0175 @ $10.9975.  Funds bot 15 SB; 6 SBM; 10 SBO. Board crush: $1.42 (Z/X), -$.06; LY, $0.79
• WZ, up $.0225 @ $6.1150; WH, up $.02 @ $6.1550.  Funds bought, in part driven by weak $, down 2% this week                             

CORN/SORGHUM

·&​nbsp;      Nov. 10 USDA Supply/Demand report: avg. guess for 2020 U.S. corn crop is 14.659 bbu versus 14.722 in October

·       Nov. 10 USDA Supply/Demand report: avg. trade guess 20/21 U.S. corn carryout, 2.033 bbu vs. 2.167 in October

·       T-storm Weather®: Dry and very mild upper-level high pressure continues to dominate the central U.S. through at least Sunday, producing record-setting maximums in the 70s-80s and minimums in the 30s-40s-50s

·       ATI Research: Unshipped U.S. corn export sales to China are 424 mbu, while unshipped sales to all other destinations (excl. unknown) of 883 mbu are almost double last year.  Makes a 2.670-2.700 bbu export year a definite possibility

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Nov. 10 USDA Supply/Demand report: avg. guess for 2020 U.S. soybean crop is 4.251 bbu versus 4.268 in October

·       Nov. 10 USDA Supply/Demand: avg. trade guess 20/21 U.S. soybean carryout, 0.235 bbu vs. 0.290 in October

·       T-storm Weather®: The likely scenario for soybeans in central Brazil is for 1.50” to 3.50” to fall over the next two weeks (with most rain back-loaded in one to two weeks), compared to normal rainfall of ~3.00” to ~5.00”

·       Nov. 10 USDA Supply/Demand report: avg. trade guess 20/21 U.S. wheat carryout, 0.881 bbu vs. 0.883 in October

·       T-storm Weather®: Strong cold front fuels rain Mon-Tue in US Southern Plains, but likely just east of most HRW wheat

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLZ20, -$1.29 @ $37.50; EBF, -$1.25 @ $39.70; EBF-CLF, +0.03; RBZ, -.0258; NGZ, -.005; HOZ, -.0284

·       Chicago ethanol gained $.02 yesterday to $1.55/gallon. Basis, mixed: NYC, +$.01 @ $.0050; Gulf, +$.0050 @ +$.0450; Dallas, unch @ +$.0350; Tampa, unch @ +$.13; LA, -$.0040 @ +$.056

·       Ethanol RIN values, higher: 2019’s, +4.375 @ 60 ½ -65; 2020’s: +4.375 @ 62-65; 2021, +3.375 @ 63-66                                                 ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       

·       The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread is trading $.0501 lower at -$.3017 per gallon this morning  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                     &nbs​p; <​/p>

• Choice boxed beef increased $2.36 on Thu.—the largest one-day gain since Aug. 18—& is $5.38 higher v. a week ago
• Cash cattle on Thu. sold for mostly $107 live (up $1 vs. last week) and $167 dressed (up $4) in the Northern Plains
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value soared $4.04 on Thu. to $85.13, but is still $1.66 lower vs. the prior week
• Lean Hog Index was $0.53 lower on Thu. at $71.52.  December futures gained $1.075 but are $4.095 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather