Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.

HIGHLIGHTS

·      TRENDS—Firm:  CZ, +$.0050; SF, +$.0075; WZ, +$.0050; KWZ, +$.0275. Del’y: 11/13:  RR, 0; SB, 233

·      What caught my eye:  From Global Grains this morning . . . with weather cooperating, Urkaine likely to boost grain production by 24 MMT by the end of 21/22, most of which is corn (40% more profit than wheat) and 99% of the increase will be exported

·      Trump to speak before Economic Club of NYC on China today—optimism? ASIA: Firm--Nikkei, +0.81%; Shanghai, +0.17%; Hang Seng, +0.52%.  EUROPE: Firm—DAX, +0.47%; FTSE, +0.36%; CAC, +0.35%.  WALL STREET—Futures are firmer-- DOW, +22; S&P, +2.75; NAS, +25.50.  EXTERNALS: Dec crude: +$0.35 @ $57.21; Gold: +$3.80 @ $1,467; $ Index: -.101 @ 98.252

·      T-storm Weather®: Scattered t-storms affect much of Brazil over the next several days as a cool front passes, then focus on central and northern areas beginning this weekend.   At least one week of dry weather will affect southern Brazil and Paraguay as surface-level high pressure lingers offshore.  Argentina receives some t-storms through midweek, then a dry period follows for 5 to 7 days

• CZ, up $.0050 @ $3.7375; CH, up $.0025 @ $3.8225.  The funds began the week by selling 6 K                
• SF, up $.0075 @ $9.1775; SH, up $.0075 @ $9.3125.  Funds: Sold 8 K SB; 6 K SBM & even SBO.  Board Crush: $0.90, +4; LY, $1.00
• WZ, up $.0050 @ $5.0625; WH, up $.0050 @ $5.1125.  The funds sold 2 K on Monday   

CORN/SORGHUM

·      Weekly Export Inspections released at 10:00 am CST.  Nine weeks into the year, corn needs to average 32 per week (versus just 16.6 per week the past month) and milo, 1.8

·      CZ19’s $3.73 ¼ close yesterday was the lowest for the contract since it ended at $3.71 ¼ on September 27^th.  Year ago close?  Just $.02 lower at $3.71 ¼

·      Cordonnier maintains 103 MMT Brazil corn estimate and keeps Argentina at 49.0.  CONAB went down 300 K to 98.4 MMT on Monday.  USDA:  101.0 and 50.0 last Friday

·      Beyond some snow yesterday in the Corn Belt, most areas will be dry over the next 7 to 10 days, followed by some rain and snow within a warmer period next Wed.-Fri

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      Weekly Soybean Inspections released at 10:00 am.  23 per week are needed to keep pace with USDA’s 1.775 bbu forecast.  Exports over the past month have been leaving at the rate of 50.7 per week

·      Cordonnier keeps Brazil soybean production estimate at 123.5 MMT; CONAB is 160 K lower at 120.39 and his Argentine estimate was lowered 1 to 55.0.   The USDA was steady at 123.0 and 53.0 on Friday

·      Weekly Wheat Inspections released at 10:00 am.  13.4 per week are needed after 22 weeks of activity.  Shipments the past month have been quite good at 18.2 per week

ENERGY

·      Firm: CLZ19, +$0.35 @ $57.21; EBF, +$0.45 @ $62.63; EBF-QCLF, +.10; RBZ, +.00892; NGZ, <​strong>+.017; HOZ, +.0068

·      Chicago ethanol was $.0180 higher Monday at $1.5430; basis values mixed:  NYC, +$.04755 @ +$.1095; Gulf, -$.0080 @ +$.0920; Dallas, -$.0030 @ +.0520; Tampa, +$.0020 @ +$.1620; LA, +$.0020 @ +$.2320

·      Ethanol RINs were firm: 2018’s, +1.00 @ 6 -8; 2019’s, +1.25 @ 13 ¾ -14 ¾; 2020’s, +0.50 @ 24 -25                                     &​nbsp;                                                 &​nbsp;                

· ​;     The December RBOB/December ethanol spread shed $.0580 as it further narrowed, to $.1649/gallon   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             ​                        &​nbsp;  

·      With the holiday choice boxed beef was again quoted at $239.12 and up $5.92 versus a week earlier     

• Early calls have cash hogs opening steady and cash cattl, also steady

·      USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was repeated from Friday at $81.60 and is up $6.71 versus the prior week

·      CME Lean Hog Index was indicated off $.85 on Friday at $59.44 and down $1.44 from a week ago  

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®