HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Firm: CU, +$.0175; SU, +$.02; WU, $.0225; KWU, +$.0275.  Del’y: SBM, 219; SBO, 142

·       What caught my eye:  I wonder if the Brazil crop was under-stated . . .Feb-July use (largely exports) is up nearly 16 MMT/20% and yet the soybean export line-up is still 100 mbu greater versus end of July LY.  Spot FOB prices are however, $.70 above the Gulf

·       U.S. stocks futures are up a fair amount this morning with oil higher and gold prices getting increasingly dearer

• Asia—Mostly higher:  Nikkei, -0.26%; Shanghai, +0.17%; Hang Seng, +0.60%;
• EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.89%; FTSE, +1.06%; CAC, +0.88%. 
• WALL STREET: Futures, up --DOW, +191; S&P, +19.25; NAS, +41.75
• EXTERNALS: Oct crude, +$1.09 @ $43.00; Gold: +$35.50 @ $2,057; Sep $ Index, -.533 @ 92.845

·       T-storm Weather®: unusual coolness continues through today across the U.S. Corn Belt, then breaks from west to east over Thu.-Sat. as southerly winds revert temperatures to slightly above-normal levels.  Minor showers and some thunderstorms form in the transition over Wed.-Fri. across the Plains, IA, MN, and MO, followed by some better-organized thunderstorms within a wider area this weekend and early next week when a couple waves of energy and a weak cool front pass

• CU, up $.0175 @ $3.10; CZ, +$.0150 @ $3.2175  Heavy fund selling, 30 K as market wrestles with 180+ corn yield                                 &​nbsp;    
• SU, up $.02 @ $8.8175; SX, up $.0250 @ $8.8425.  Funds: Sold 10 SB, 7 SBM, 3 SBO.  Board crush: $0.91 (U/U), +4; LY, $1.04
• WU, up $.0225 @ $5.1050; WZ, up $.0175 @ $5.1825.  Funds again sold 8 K, row crop pressure didn’t help any              

CORN/SORGHUM

·       ​T-storm Weather®: temps forecast slightly above-normal next week across U.S. Corn Belt; highs mostly in the 80s-90s & lows in the 70s.  Thunderstorms occur in varying areas August 10-16; widespread rain of 0.75"-1.50" remains likely

·       ATI Research: the USDA’s 4.850 bbu forecast of corn used for ethanol for the 19/20 crop year implies a July-Aug grind of 839 mbu, or only 7.3% below a year ago.  This seems optimistic given recent grind rates

·       U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report scheduled to be released at 9:30 am CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather®: temps forecast slightly above-normal next week across U.S. Corn Belt; highs mostly in the 80s-90s & lows in the 70s.  Thunderstorms occur in varying areas August 10-16; widespread rain of 0.75"-1.50" remains likely

·       ATI Research: near-term exports of U.S. soybeans are projected to range from 20-25 mbu per week

·       T-storm Weather®: stormier period begins this week in Australia & continues, easing drought on wheat into mid-Aug.

·       ATI Research: near-term exports of U.S. wheat are projected to range from 16-20 mbu per week

ENERGY

·       Higher:  CLV20, +$1.09 @ $43.00; EBV, +$1.07 @ $45.50; EBV-QCLV, -0.02; RBV, +.0284; NGV, +.050; HOV, +.0215

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude -1.8 (-8.6); Gasoline -0.5 (-1.7); Distillates +0.2 (+3.8).  Estimates for ethanol production avg. 0.952 mbpd (range: 0.922-0.970).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 20.435 mb (range: 20.172-20.672)

·       Chicago ethanol fell $.03 to $1.16; basis, steady/firmer: NYC, unch @ +$.10; Gulf, +$.015 @ +$.1050; Dallas, +$.015 @ +$.11; Tampa, +$.005 @ +$.22; LA, +$.01 @ +$.22

·       Ethanol RIN values, lower: 2019’s, -.50 @ 45 -44 ½; 2020’s: -.625 @ 46 ½ -47 ¾                                                                    &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;          

·  ​;     The Aug RBOB/August ethanol spread is trading $.0466 higher at $.0934/gallon, premium RBOB

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                               ​;        

• Choice boxed beef eased $0.42 on Tuesday to $204.24, but is still $1.28 higher compared to last week
• Cash cattle traded for $100 on Tue. in southern part of Kansas, which is $3.00 higher than last week’s weighted avg.
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $1.24 lower on Tue. to $64.87, and is down $3.94 versus a week ago
• CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.30 on Tue. to $52.81.  August futures were $0.175 lower and are $3.11 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®