HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Firm: CU, +$.0025; SQ, +$.0050; WU, +$.0425; KWU, +$.0475 

·       What caught my eye:   Thanks largely to China, unshipped export sales of corn and soybeans as the 20/21 marketing year approaches total 1.24 bbu, up 65% vs LY & second only to the 1.25 billion on the books ahead of the 16-17 campaign

·       Global equity markets are mostly weaker.  Asia—Mostly lower:  Nikkei, -0.58%; Shanghai, -0.24%; Hang Seng, +0.82%; EUROPE: Mostly weaker—DAX, -0.01%; FTSE, +0.07%; CAC, -0.07%.  WALL STREET: Futures, weaker --DOW, -50; S&P, -7.5; NAS, -75.25.  EXTERNALS: Sep crude, +$0.41 @ $41.48; Gold: +$32.40 @ $1,898; Sep $ Index, -.019 @ 94.630

·       T-storm Weather®: heat expands from west to east through today, then continues until a strong cool front breaks it Sun.-Mon.  Thunderstorms form along the northern edge of heat this weekend, focusing one or two heavy clusters on and adjacent the Dakotas and MN.  The front then triggers scattered thunderstorms across the Corn Belt as it passes Sun.-Mon.  A cool period with little rain follows for at least several days next week as humidities drop, after which uncertainty increases

• CU, up $.0025 @ $3.2825; CZ, up $.0075 @ $3.3625.  The funds bought 1 K in a day of quiet trading                           ​;      
• SQ, up $.0050 @ $9.0675; SX, up $.0050 @ $9.0050.  Funds: Bot 4 K SB, 5 SBM, sold 2 SBO.  Board crush: $0.60 (Q/Q), -1; LY, $0.94
• WU, up $.0425 @ $5.1425; WZ, up $.0425 @ $5.2775.  The funds sold 3 K despite the absence of negative news        

CORN/SORGHUM

·       T-storm Weather®: most likely scenario for July 31–Aug. 4 in U.S. Corn Belt; temps turn warmer & help scattered rain to unfold.  However, if coolness lingers, then less rain would occur from much lower humidities than in recent weeks

·       Combined old and new-crop unshipped U.S. corn export sales as of July 16 were 566 mbu, which is 75% higher compared to 323 mbu last year but 11% lower versus 634 mbu two years ago

·       ATI Research: U.S. corn silking progress on average increases approximately 20% from July 19 to July 26

·       T-storm Weather®: 19%, 42%, 51% of corn in the U.S., Ukraine, & E.U. were drier than normal last 30 days (ending Tue.).  Dryness continues to increase on corn in E.U. & Ukraine, especially with temps to turn much warmer next week

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       August 2020 soybean futures on Thu. closed at $9.06 ¼--the highest settlement price for the contract since March 5

·       T-storm Weather®: most likely scenario for July 31–Aug. 4 in U.S. Corn Belt; temps turn warmer & help scattered rain to unfold.  However, if coolness lingers, then less rain would occur from much lower humidities than in recent weeks

·       ATI Research: combined old and new-crop unshipped U.S. soybean export sales as of July 16 were 671 mbu, which is 58% higher compared to 426 mbu last year and 12% above 601 mbu from two years ago

·       ATI Research: unshipped U.S. HRW wheat export sales as of July 16 were 62 mbu—the 2^nd highest total in 6 years

·       T-storm Weather®: rain aids some wheat in eastern Australia Sat., but more is needed with little likely into early Aug.

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLU20, +$0.41 @ $41.48; EBU, +$0.46 @ $44.47; EBU-QCLU, +0.03; RBU, +.0124; NGU, -.029; HOU, +.0045

·       Chicago ethanol edged $.0075 higher to $1.2975; basis, mixed: NYC, -$.02 @ +$.0650; Gulf, +$.0075 @ +$.0925; Dallas, +$.0075 @ +$.0825; Tampa, +$.0125 @ +$.2025; LA, -$.0075 @ +$.1225

·       Ethanol RIN values, firmer: 2019’s, +.25 @ 45 ¼ -45 ¾; 2020’s: +.50 @ 47 ½-48                                            &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;     

·     &nb​sp; The Aug RBOB/August ethanol spread was $.0042 narrower at $.0886/gallon, premium RBOB

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                 ​;      

• Choice boxed beef increased $1.11 on Thursday to $202.26, and is $1.46 higher compared to last week
• Est. for today’s USDA Cattle on Feed report: July 1 on feed, 99.9%; Placed in June, 103.6%; Marketed in June, 101.0%
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $0.11 on Thu. to $68.69, & is $1.98 higher versus a week ago
• CME Lean Hog Index was $0.26 higher on Thu. at $49.69.  August futures firmed $1.825 & are $4.785 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®