HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Firm:  CN, +$.03; SN, +$.0675; WN, +$.07; KWN, +$.0675.  Dely: SBM, 33; BO, 204; RR, 0; C, 0; HRW, 0

·       What caught my eye: Oct-Mar Big 3 SB export data indicates some 13 MMT MORE beans have been shipped to China than for the same period last year.  Much of this must be going into reserves; how aggressive will China be in buying from the US this fall?

·       Markets mostly higher but doubts about strength of post-COVID 19 recovery noted.  Asia: Weaker-- Nikkei, +0.28%; Shanghai, -0.23%; Hang Seng, -0.65%; EUROPE: Firm—DAX, +0.96%; FTSE, +0.78%; CAC, +0.94%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Up--DOW, +317; S&P, +42; NAS, +140.25.   EXTERNALS: June crude, +$2.11 @ $26.10; Gold: +$9.40 @ $1,706; Sep $ Index, +0.139 @ 100.30

·       T-storm Weather®: for planting, unseasonable coolness affects much of the central U.S. through Tuesday, inducing hard frosts and light freezes in northern and eastern areas (especially the Dakotas and MN Friday, then IN, MI, and OH Saturday).  A sharply warmer period begins next Wed. and then continues, leading to multiple areas of rain and thunderstorms over May 13-19 within key corn and soybean areas as areas in / adjacent the Corn Belt turn considerably wetter

• CN, up $.03 @ $3.1725; CU, up $.03 @ $3.2325.  Mid week fund buying was estimated at 5 K          
• SN, up $.0675 @ $8.3925; SQ, up $.0650 @ $8.4050.  Funds sold 6 K SB, 5 K SBO, 2 K SBM. Board crush: $0.86 (N/N), -1; LY, $1.12
• WN, up $.07 @ $5.2450; WU, up $.0650 @ $5.2725.  The funds sold 3 K yesterday           

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 24-43 for 19/20 corn

·       T-storm Weather®: in the U.S., coolness retreats May 13-14, allowing a mild/muggy period to begin & last for at least 5-7 days; frequent thunderstorms with above-normal rain then occur across a wide area May 13-19, esp. in Corn Belt

·       Ethanol grind: total of 598,000 barrels/day for the week ending May 1—up 61 thousand versus last week but down 42.3% compared to last year’s 1,036,000

·       Consultant: in Brazil, a dry period continues across second-crop corn production in southern, central and northern areas until some thunderstorms develop Tue.-Wed. (May 12-13); however, only minor rainfall is expected

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·     &n​bsp; Export Sales report.  Trade expects 22-40 mbu for 19/20 soybeans; soymeal, 100-250 K MT; soyoil, 5-30 

·       T-storm Weather®: in the U.S., coolness retreats May 13-14, allowing a mild/muggy period to begin & last for at least 5-7 days; frequent thunderstorms with above-normal rain then occur across a wide area May 13-19, esp. in Corn Belt

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean crop estimate is unchanged at 50.0 MMT with a neutral to slightly lower bias

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 2-11 mbu for 19/20 all wheat and 4-13 mbu for 20/21

·       T-storm Weather®: for U.S HRW wheat, a brief round of thunderstorms affects the southeast third of KS & central OK today as a strong thunderstorm erupts & then exits through the Delta; cool & dry weather follow for several days

ENERGY

·       Up: CLM20, +$2.11 @ $26.10; EBN, +$1.94 @ $31.65; EBN-QCLN, +$0.18; RBM, +.0619; NGM, +.008; HOM, +.04

·       Chicago ethanol was $.00125 higher at $1.0475/gallon; basis, mostly firm:  NYC, +$.00375 @ +$.0625; Gulf, -$.00125 @ $.07250; Dallas, +$.00375 @ +$.10250; Tampa, +$.00375 @ +$.2125; LA, +$.05125 @ +$.2125

·       Ethanol RINs values, unch/down: 2018’s, unch @ 23 ¼-25 ¼; 2019’s, unch @ 32 ¾-33 ¼; 2020’s: -.1250 @ 36 ½-37                         &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;         

·      &nb​sp;The June RBOB/June ethanol inverse reversed course, widening $.0654 to $.1781/gallon, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                 &nbs​p;     

• ​ Choice boxed beef firmed $20.19 on Wednesday to $449.18, and is $91.80 higher versus a week ago
• Increased cash cattle trading occurred on Wed. in the South at $110, which is $9 higher in KS compared to last week
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $1.78 higher on Wed. at $114.08, & is up $24.74 versus last week
• CME Lean Hog Index increased $2.03 on Wed. to $62.38.  May futures gained $1.950 and are $5.72 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®