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TRENDS Firm CN, Up 2, SN, Up 8, WN, Down 3

May 18, 2020 07:00 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·      TRENDS—Firm:  CN, $.0150; SN, +$.065; WN, -$.03; KWN, -$.0325 

·      What caught my eye: Optimism expressed from the Renewable Fuels President Cooper on Friday that the “worst” of the Covid-19 impact on the ethanol industry may be in the rear view mirror while noting there is still a long way to go 

·      Fed Chairman Powell’s comments on the U.S. economy reopen for business.  Asia: Higher-- Nikkei, +0.48%; Shanghai, +0.24%; Hang Seng, -0.58%; EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +2.71%; FTSE, +2.07%; CAC, +2.12%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Higher--DOW, +373; S&P, +44.5; NAS, +116.75.   EXTERNALS: June crude, +$2.31 @ $31.74Gold: +$16.10 $1,772; Sep $ Index, +0.066 @ 100.495

·      T-storm Weather®: an upper-level system produces widespread rain within the eastern half of the Corn Belt and Delta today, then scattered showers in / near IL, IN, KY, MI, and OH Tue.-Wed. as its remnant lingers, resulting in 1.00” to 2.00” in much of IL, IN, MI, southeast MN, OH, and WI, and 0.50” to 1.50” in the Delta.  Little to no rain falls elsewhere through at least Wednesday as high pressure dominates.  Scattered showers then return to the Plains Thu.-Fri., as a large system in the West encroaches on the region

  • CN, up $.0150 @ $3.2075; CU, up $.0150 @ $3.2450.  Fund buying on Friday was estimated at 1 K            
  • SN, up $.06 @ $8.4450; SQ, up $.05 @ $8.4575.  Funds: bot 1 SB; 4 SBO, sold 1 SBM.  Board crush: $0.86 (N/N), +1; LY, $1.29
  • WN, dn $.0325 @ $4.97; WU, dn $.03 @ $5.00.  Fund selling was pegged at 1 K ahead of the weekend 

CORN/SORGHUM

·      Mixed ideas on U.S. corn planting progress in this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report.  Consensus is it could be near 78-79% compared to 67% last week, 44% last year & the 5-year avg. of 71%

·      T-storm Weather®: a stormy period occurs from May 23-29 forward, likely producing 1.00”-2.00” in much of the U.S. Plains (wettest from NE south) & western Corn Belt;  timing is Sat.-Sun. in the Plains & May 25-26 in western Corn Belt

·      Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 49.4 mbu needed; 52.5 last week.  Milo—5.8 needed; 3.0 last week

·      T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, dry weather prevails across second-crop corn through at least Wed. 

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      Mixed ideas on U.S. soybean planting progress in this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report.  Consensus is it could be near 53% compared to v. 38% last week, 16% last year & the 5-year avg. of 38%

·      T-storm Weather®: a stormy period occurs from May 23-29 forward, likely producing 1.00”-2.00” in much of the U.S. Plains (wettest from NE south) & western Corn Belt;  timing is Sat.-Sun. in the Plains & May 25-26 in western Corn Belt

·      Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 25.6 mbu needed; 18.2 last week

·      T-storm Weather®: a series of cool fronts produce areas of rain in spring wheat, and / or winter wheat areas of and adjacent Russia and Ukraine over the next 10 days

·      Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 36.3 mbu needed; 12.5 last week

ENERGY

·      Firm: CLM20, +$2.31 @ $31.74EBN, +$1.86 $34.36EBN-QCLN, -$0.31; RBM, +.0626; NGM, +.076; HOM, +.0639

·      Chicago ethanol was gained $.02 on Friday to $1.1250/gallon; basis, mixed:  NYC, -$.03 @ +$.06; Gulf, +$.0050 @ $.0950; Dallas, unch @ +$.1350; Tampa, -$.005 @ +$.2250; LA, -$.005 @ +$.21

·      Ethanol RINs values, unch/weak: 2018’s, unch @ 23 ¼-25 ¼; 2019’s, -$.1250 @ 33 -33 ¼; 2020’s: -.25 @ 36 ¼ -36 ¾                                    &nbs​p;                        ​;                         ​;                        ​                        <​/wbr>

·      The June RBOB/June ethanol inverse was again weaker, down $.0537 on Friday to $.1358/gallon, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                  ​;                      

  • Choice boxed beef was $1.60 lower Friday at $434.32, and is down $26.56 versus the previous week
  • Cash cattle sold for $120 on Fri. in KS, NE and TX, which was $5.00-$10.00 higher than the Southern trade on Wed.
  • The mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $3.35 on Fri. to $109.68, & is down $6.12 compared to a week ago
  • CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.17 on Fri. to $68.70.  June futures declined $0.875 and are $10.825 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

 



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