HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—firm:  CK, +$.0375; SK, +$.0650; WK, +$.02; KWK, +$.0350.  Del’y: SBM, 253; SBO, 7; RR, 26; C, 147; SB, 7; W, 50 

·       What caught my eye: Soybean sales continue to languish; this week’s 11.1 total pulled the 4-week average down to 13.6 per week, a 6-year seasonal low and about ½ the period average.  China has just 2 mbu on the books, down from 257 million LY

·       Europe/U.S. Stock indices turn higher in early morning trade.  Asia: DOWN: Nikkei, -6.08%; Shanghai, -1.23%; Hang Seng, -1.14%; EUROPE: Rebounding—DAX, +3.48%; FTSE, +4.58%; CAC, +4.08.  WALL STREET: Futures, higher?--DOW, +766; S&P, +93.75; NAS, +315.5.  EXTERNALS: April crude, +$1.65 @ $33.15; Gold: -$2.00 @ $1,588; Mar $ Index, -.905 @ 95.885

·       T-storm Weather®: Heavy rains in Argentina substantially eased dryness in key corn and soybean areas of northern Buenos Aires.  Several additional rains follow within a wide area through next week as the more-than three-week drought and two-week heat wave ends.  Dry and hot weather continues for the southern ~40% of Brazil corn until Tue.-Thu., with more storms the following 5-7 days.  Northern corn north turns wetter as tropical waves of energy trigger occasional t-storms

• CK, up $.0375 @ $3.6950; CN, up $.0350 @ $3.7225.  More pandemic concerns, funds sell 15 K    
• SK, up $0.0650 @ $8.66; SN, up $.0675 @ $8.75.  Funds: Sold 10 SB; 2 SBM; 8 SBO.  Board crush: $0.97 (K/K), +4; LY, $0.99 
• WK, up $.02 @ $5.0750; WN, up $.0225 @ $5.09.  Fund selling estimated at 5 K on Thursday                               
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CORN/SORGHUM

·       Export corn sales of 57.9 mbu were a marketing year high, exceeding the high end of trade expectations in the 24-47 range.  Near term exports are expected to average in the 35-44 mbu range, versus 39 per week last spring

·       Solid milo export sales of 10.2 mbu with 9.7 sold to China/Unknown; versus only 2.3 per week needed

·       May corn closed at a contract low of $3.65 ¾ or 4 ½ cents below CK2019 close a yea-ago to the day

·       T-storm Weather®:  This winter was #14 mildest of the last 120 years in the Corn Belt, which is associated with slightly increased odds for a below-trend yield for corn and soybeans

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Soybean export sales continue weak, just 11.1 yesterday with 15-29 expected and 22.5/wk needed

·       Soybean oil has performed the poorest the past 10 trading days, losing 8%/$.0230/lb with SMK off $2.80/0.9% per ST and SK dropping 33 ¼ cents/3.7% to $8.59 ½ per bushel as of yesterday

·       SK20 closed at $8.59 ½ Thursday, also a contract low and $.39/bu below SK19’s year close

·       Export meal demand cranking up!  Shipments averaging near 300 K MT/wk, a record for mid-Feb/mid-March

·       Wheat export sales of 16.6 were slightly above mid-range (7-22) and exceeded the 10.1/wk implied rate

·       T-storm Weather®: Current situation is neutral and is expected to continue the next 6.  Three years behaved similarly and a review of U.S. yields in those years (and the wet forecast) favor at least an average HRW wheat crop

ENERGY

·       Up: CLJ20, +$1.65 @ $33.15; EBK, +$2.00 @ $35.21; EBK-QCLK, +.44; RBJ, +.0961; NGJ, +.072; HOJ, +.0135

·       Chicago ethanol was lost $.0475 at $1.18; basis, mostly firm:  NYC, -$.0125 @ $.09; Gulf, +$.0075 @ $.0950; Dallas, +$.0075 @ +$.1050; Tampa, +$.0075 @ +$.2150; LA, +$.0325 @ +$.2550

·       Ethanol RINs values, Down: 2018’s, -4.00 @ 25-27; 2019’s, -6.75 @ 23 ½ -25; 2020’s, -5.75 @ 24 -32 ½                                                     &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                                            

·       The April RBOB/April ethanol spread is trading at a $.1949 inverse this morning       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY         ​           &nbs​p;                  

• Choice boxed beef lost $1.16 yesterday, slipping to $206.01, and is $1.24 lower versus last week  
• Cash cattle trading was very quiet, giving the appearance that just a little clean-up business to be transacted on Friday

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $0.78 higher on Thu. at $68.34, & is up $2.50 versus a week ago

• CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.57 on Thu. to $58.32.  April futures closed down $3.000 at $60.875 and are $2.555 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®