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TRENDS Firm CH, Up 2, SF, Up 3, WH, Unchanged

December 1, 2020 07:06 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Firm: CH, +0.0250; SF, +$.0575 WH, +$.0275; KWZ, +$.0275. Dalian Jan futures: C, +1 ½; SB, +3/4       

·       What caught my eye:  Recovery in Chinese soybean meal consumption may be beginning to slow as crush fell nearly 10% this week and was just 4% above the year-ago week.  Or, about ½ the annual gain expected by the USDA as meal stocks mount

·       Vaccine optimism and better than expected Chinese manufacturing data boost global equities

  • Asia: Higher:  Nikkei, +1.34%; Shanghai, +1.77%; Hang Seng, +0.86%
  • EUROPE:  Higher:  DAX, +1.00%; FTSE, +1.93%; CAC, +1.07% 
  • WALL STREET: Higher–DOW futures, +340; S&P, +40.5; NAS, +113.25
  • EXTERNALS: Jan crude, +$0.05 @ $45.39; Gold: +$29.70 @ $1,811; Mar $ Index, -0.057 @ 91.735
  • T-storm Weather®: In Brazil, thunderstorms focus on southern areas Wed.-Thu. and Fri.-Sat., followed by a drier period.  Central and northern areas stay mainly dry through at least Fri.-Sat., followed by an uptick in rain Sat.-Sun.  Near-normal rain is probable in most areas over the next two weeks.  In Argentina, heavy thunderstorms affect the northern third of the growing belt tonight and Wed., while drying continues in key areas of the central and south.  The next rain chance is around 10 to 14 days out
  • CH, up $.0225 @ $4.2825; CK, up $.0250 @ $4.3150.  The funds opened the week selling 15 K
  • SF, up $.0575 @ $11.7425; SH, up $.0575 @ $11.7525.  Funds: sell 12 SB, 7 SBM, 10 SBO. Board crush: $1.13 (Z/F), +3; LY, $1.07
  • WH, up $.0275 @ $5.8750; WK, up $.0250 @ $5.9125.  The funds sold 10 K on Monday.  Del’y: HRW, 6; SRW, 100; O, 240                           &nb​sp;          

CORN/SORGHUM

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks estimate for 20/21 U.S. corn is 1.632 bbu vs. November USDA estimate of 1.702

·       Consultant: Brazil 2020/21 corn crop estimate is lowered by 2.0 MMT to 104.0 MMT, with a neutral to lower bias going forward

·       T-storm Weather®: In Argentina, much more rain was needed as of Saturday because 90% of expected early-corn production was drier than normal last 30 days, including 45% with less than half of normal

·       U.S. corn harvest as of Nov. 29: OH, 92% vs. 88% last year and 93% avg; WI, 95%/63%/87%; and MI, 95%/63%/85%

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks est. for 20/21 U.S. soybean is 0.118 bbu vs. November USDA estimate of 0.190

·       Consultant: Brazil 2020/21 soybean production est. is lowered by 2.0 MMT to 130.0 MMT; neutral to lower bias

·       T-storm Weather®: For soybeans in central and northern Brazil, the forecast is for 2.50”-4.50” over the next two weeks, but rain will need to continue beyond mid-month because of ongoing drought & that ~3.25”-~5.25” is normal

·       USDA pegs 2021 U.S. winter wheat crop condition Good/Excellent ratings at 46% vs. 43% last week & 52% last year

·       T-storm Weather®: Light rain & snow affects some HRW wheat in Plains Wed.-Thu. (esp. eastern halves of KS & OK)

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLF21, +$0.05 @ $45.39; EBG, +$0.05 @ $47.93; EBG-CLG, -0.01; RBF, +.0057; NGF, +.020; HOF, +.0117

·       Chicago ethanol was $.02625 lower at $1.33375/gallon. Basis, firm:  NYC, +$.00875 @ $.09875; Gulf, +$.01125 @ +$.08625; Dallas, +$.04125 @ +$.08625; Tampa, +$.06625 @ +$.23125; LA, +$.02625 @ +$.16625

·       Ethanol RINs, higher: 2019’s, up 1.875 @ 60 5/8-64; 2020’s, up 1.875 @ 62-65; 2021, up 1.875 @ 62 ½ –66 ½                                                        &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                    <​/wbr>

·       The Jan RBOB/Jan ethanol spread is up $.0322 this morning at -$.0988 per gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                   &​nbsp;                   

  • Choice​ boxed beef was $0.83 higher on Monday at $243.68, and is up $2.08 compared to last week 
  • 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was up $0.70 v. last week at $110.27/cwt, but is dn $7.94 v. last year
  • The mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased $0.18 on Mon. to $78.85, but is still $2.04 higher versus a week ago
  • Current nearby board hog crush value is $33.35/cwt vs. last week’s $31.45, last month’s $33.53 & last year’s $43.65

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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