HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Firm: CH, +$.0025; SF, +$.0250; WH, +$0.0250; KWH, +$.0125. 

·       What caught my eye: November cattle on feed placements at 104.9% of a year ago were well above the 101.0% trade consensus.  Between potential yield losses in the north and animal numbers, could we see a SON corn stocks surprise?

·       Futures are higher on ideas U.S./PRC trade tensions are easing.  Asia, Mostly/sort of firm: Nikkei, +0.02%; Shanghai, -1.40%; Hang Seng, +0.13%; EUROPE: Mostly firm—DAX, -0.12%; FTSE, +0.48%; CAC, +0.06%.  WALL STREET Futures—Firm—DOW, +31; S&P, +4.50; NAS, +15.75.  EXTERNALS: Feb crude: -$.05 @ $60.39; Gold: +$6.60 @ $1,481; $ Index, +.005 @ 97.695

·       T-storm Weather®: weekend weather in South America was within expectations of Friday’s report.  The outlook going forward is slightly wetter in Argentina where drying stabilizes into January, but drier in southern Brazil and Paraguay where a round of rain may be needed in the second week of January, and similar in central and northern Brazil where the onset of a wetter period in 5 to 10 days needs to verify as drought continues north and remains notable in parts of Mato Grosso

• CH, up $.0025 @ $3.88; CK, up $.0025 @ $3.425.  The funds closed out the week buying 3 K    
• SF, up $.0250 @ $9.3075; SH, up $.02 @ $9.4025.  Funds: Bought 2 SB, even SBM & SBO.  Board crush: $0.99, -5; LY, $.94,-3; 
• WH, up $.0250 @ $5.4475, WK, up $.02 @ $5.48.  The funds sold 2 K on Friday       

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Corn, 42.3 mbu needed; 27.0 last week.  Milo—2.2 needed; 3.1 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: much above normal temps prevail through Wed., but mildness produces muddiness to limit corn harvest in Dakotas; temps turn colder northwest to southeast Thu.-Sun. with readings near- or slightly above-normal   

·       Consultant: peak of full-season corn harvest in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, will be in January—a little later than usual

·       ATI Research: Last Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed report indicated that the supply of cattle on feed more than 150 days is 7.3% higher than last year.  The next update of 2019/20 U.S. corn feed/residual usage will be made on Jan. 10

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       ​Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Soybeans, 29.5 mbu needed; 46.3 last week

·       Dryness has slowed Argentina soybean planting; Buenos Aires Grain Exchange pegs planting at 70.2% v. 74.0% in 2018

·       T-storm Weather®: some thunderstorms form in Argentina Tue.-Wed., producing 0.25” to 0.75” of rain in central and southern soybean areas (including areas in need of rain); more than one opportunity for rain follows Dec. 27-31

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Wheat, 19.8 mbu needed; 18.6 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: in the U.S., a large and mostly rainy system breaks the dry and mild period Fri.-Sun., turning HRW wheat in the Plains wet, but quickly followed by an extended period of drying

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLG20, -$0.05 @ $60.39; EBG, +$0.02 @ $66.17; EBG-QCLG, +.08; RBG, -.0022; NGG, -.079; HOG, +.0005

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0125 higher at $1.38125; basis values versus Chicago were weaker:  NYC, -$.0025 @ $.13875; Gulf, -$.0025 @ $.13375; Dallas, -$.0125 @ +$.05875; Tampa, -$.0175 @ -$.14375; LA, -$.0425 @ +$.19875

·       Ethanol RINs values steady/weaker: 2018’s, unch @ 5 ½-6 ½; 2019’s, -.375 @ 11 ¾ -12 ¾; 2020’s, -.375 @ 18 -18 ¾                                           &nbs​p;                                                 &nbs​p;               

·  &n​bsp;    The January RBOB/January ethanol spread narrowed $.0150 to $.3158/gallon Friday; trading $.3038 this morning       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY            &​nbsp;                  &n​bsp;       

• Choice boxed beef increased 71-cents on Friday to $209.70 but is still $6.59 lower compared to a week ago
• Cattle on Feed:Dec 1 on feed, 102.5% (101.9% avg est); Nov placed, 104.9% (100.9%); Marketed in Nov, 97.0% (97.3%)

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined 9-cents on Fri. to $75.94 & is down $5.00 versus the prior week

·       Trade est. for today’s USDA Quarterly Hogs & Pigs: All Hogs & Pigs, 103.0%; Breeding, 101.6%, Marketing, 103.1%   

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®