HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Firm:  CH, +$.0125; SF, +$.0275; WH, +$.0450; KWK, +$.0425 

·       What caught my eye: Broad range of export sales estimates by the trade with 20-47 corn and 26-55 beans expected and versus 33 and 20 needed, respectively.  Some see strong wheat sales as well, ranging from 7 to 33 and versus 13/week needed

·       Strong Christmas season sales and easing trade tensions . . .   Asia: Mostly weaker: Nikkei, -0.36%; Shanghai, -0.08%; Hang Seng,+1.30%; EUROPE: Firm—DAX, +0.54%; FTSE, +0.30%; CAC, +0.56%.  WALL STREET Futures—Up, Up & Away?—DOW, +96; S&P, +8.25; NAS, +34.00.  EXTERNALS: Feb crude: +$.17 @ $61.85; Gold: -$0.30 @ $1,514; $ Index, -.348 @ 97.186

·       T-storm Weather®: numerous thunderstorms produce heavy rain & ease dryness in key areas of Argentina through early next week, at least initially negating concerns over a drier period in early Jan.  Somewhat similarly, rains through Mon. & a sharp uptick in rain next week likely ease dryness concerns in Mato Grosso & northern Brazil, though rain will need to persist throughout Jan.  Below-normal rain affects southern Brazil & Paraguay through 2 weeks, likely stressing crops in already-dry Rio Grande do Sul

• CH, up $.0125 @ $3.8975; CK, up $.01 @ $3.9625.  The funds bought back the 2 K sold ahead of the Christmas holiday      
• SF, up $.0275 @ $9.4050; SH, up $.0325 @ $9.4975.  Funds: Bot 2 SB, 2 SBO & sold 2 SBM.  Board crush: $0.99, -1; LY, $.98,-3; 
• WH, up $.0450 @ $5.5350, WK, up $.0425 @ $5.56.  The funds continue buying with 3 K purchased on Thursday       

CORN/SORGHUM

·      ​; Consultant: Brazil 2019/20 corn crop est. is unch at 102.0 MMT with a neutral bias.  Full-season corn in Brazil is generally doing OK, but only accounts for ~25% of total output with safrinha (double crop) corn accounting for ~75%

• T-storm Weather®: rain in Argentina last week slightly diminished dryness, but much more is needed in the south because it accounts for the main reason that 51% of early-corn was drier than normal over the 30 days ending Tue.
• Weekly EIA report detailing ethanol production and stocks is scheduled to be released at 10:00 am CST

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Consultant: Argentina 2019/20 soybean crop est. is unch at 52.0 MMT with a neutral to lower bias.  Rain in the north has been good & the crop is developing normally, but rain in the south has been below-normal for several months

·       T-storm Weather®: in central and northern Brazil, scattered thunderstorms recur through Monday in driest soybean areas of Mato Grosso and Tocantins where 1.00” to 2.00” falls

·       KC HRW March 2020 wheat futures on Thu. closed at $4.70 ½—highest settlement price for the contract since July 29

·       T-storm Weather®: widespread precip of 0.75”-1.25” Fri.-Sat. across Plains improves moisture on overwintering HRW 

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLG20, +$0.17 @ $61.85; EBG, +$0.14 @ $68.06; EBG-QCLG, -.03; RBG, +.0031; NGG, -.075; HOG, +.0079

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -1.9 (-7.9); Gasoline, +1.7 (+0.6); Distillates, +0.8 (+1.7).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.064 mbpd (range: 1.059-1.070).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 21.868 mb (range 21.398-22.248)

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0195 higher at $1.4095; basis values versus Chicago were lower:  NYC, -.0070 @ $.11550; Gulf, -.0170 @ $.1155; Dallas, -.0095 @ +$.04550; Tampa,-.0095 @ -$.1255; LA, -.0095 @ +$.1805

·       Ethanol RINs values unch/lower: 2018’s, unch @ 5-6; 2019’s, -.25 @ 11 ¼ -11 ¾ ; 2020’s, -.25 @ 18 -18 ½                          &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                                   

·      &n​bsp;The January RBOB/January ethanol spread widened $.0217 to $.35070/gallon       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY              ​;                         ​;

• Choice boxed beef declined $1.42 on Thursday to $210.15 but is still $1.16 higher compared to a week ago
• After posting week-to-week declines for 25 consecutive trading days, choice boxed beef on Thu. was up vs. last week

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell 68-cents on Thu. to $75.28 & is down 75-cents vs. the previous week

·       CME Lean Hog Index was unch on Thursday at $59.12.  February futures firmed $0.200 & are $11.78 above the index   

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®