HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Firm: CH, +$.01; SF, +$.0175; WH, +$0.03; KWH, +$.0325. 

·       What caught my eye: The BA Grain Exchange expects smaller Argentine crops due to export taxes:  SB production to fall 1.5 from 1^st estimate to 51.1; Corn, down 1.7 to 46.6 and wheat, 700 K lower at 18.1.  Estimates were “pre the 2^nd proposed tax increase”

·       Europe is higher as are the major U.S. indices.  Asia, Mostly lower: Nikkei, -0.20%; Shanghai, -0.40%; Hang Seng, +0.25%; EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.66%; FTSE, +0.15%; CAC, +0.60%.  WALL STREET Futures—Firm—DOW, +22; S&P, +0.75; NAS, +6.25.  EXTERNALS: Feb crude: -$0.32@ $60.88; Gold: -$3.30 @ $1,481; $ Index, +.156 @ 97.535

·       T-storm Weather®: today’s forecast is mixed with rains forthcoming to driest areas of Argentina today & Dec. 25-29, which should improve soil moisture for soybean planting, but more would be ideal for early-corn & sunflowers.  In Brazil, thunderstorms affect most areas into early January as cool fronts pass & dissipate, but we are only forecasting near- to below-normal totals with best rains next week in key central areas, and with totals reduced for the northeast ~10% of first-corn & soybeans

• CH, up $.01 @ $3.8750; CK, up $.0075 @ $3.9375.  The funds sold 2 K yesterday    
• SF, up $.0175 @ $9.2625; SH, up $.0175 @ $9.38.  Funds: Sold 4 SB, 5 SBM, bot 5 SBO.  Board crush: $1.04, -2; LY, $.90,-3; 
• WH, up $.03 @ $5.4825, WK, up $.0275 @ $5.5150.  Fund selling on Thursday estimated at 4 K      

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Unshipped 19/20 export sales of U.S. corn as of Dec. 12 were 378 mbu, which is down 26% from 509 mbu last year

·       ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. corn exports is 20-25 mbu per week compared to 34.9 mbu per week last year

·       T-storm Weather®: snowpack rapidly melts through Sunday due to unseasonably mild temps, except in the Dakotas & MN where depths are too great for it to fully diminish; mildness produces muddiness to limit remaining corn harvest

• Consultant: dryness in southern Argentina is a concern for early-corn, but Argentina soils have a very good water holding capacity, so it takes a while to become a full blown drought.  Also, corn genetics have improved recently

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• Unshipped 19/20 export sales of U.S. soybeans as of Dec. 12 were 352 mbu—down 21% from 445 mbu last year

·       ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. soybean exports is 45-55 mbu per week versus 29.7 mbu per week last year

• T-storm Weather®: thunderstorms affect most Brazil soybeans into early Jan.; best rain next week in key central areas

·       Consultant: weather has generally been favorable for soybean development in most of Brazil despite delayed planting

·       Unshipped 19/20 export sales of U.S. all wheat as of Dec. 12 were 1660 mbu—down 17% from 200 mbu last year

·       NWS Seasonal Drought Outlook indicates drought persists through March 31 for all HRW wheat in southwest Kansas

·       T-storm Weather®: dry conditions are forecast to persist across most U.S. HRW wheat over the next week 

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLG20, -$0.32 @ $60.86; EBG, -$0.30 @ $66.24; EBG-QCLG, +.01; RBG, -.0011; NGG, +.035; HOG, -.0033

·       Chicago ethanol was $.01625 higher at $1.36875; basis values versus Chicago were weaker:  NYC, -$.0188 @ $.14125; Gulf, -$.01125 @ $.13625; Dallas, -$.00625 @ +$.07125; Tampa, -$.00625 @ -$.01625; LA, -$.01625 @ +$.24125

·       Ethanol RINs values were steady/weaker: 2018’s, -.25 @ 5 ½-6 ½; 2019’s, unch @ 12 ½ -12 ¾ 2020’s, unch @ 18 ½ -19                                         ​                        &​nbsp;                                          

&​middot;       The January RBOB/January ethanol spread was $.0040 wider at $.3308/gallon      

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             ​                   &​nbsp;      

• C​hoice boxed beef was 58-cents lower on Thursday at $208.99 and is down $6.66 versus last week
• Trade est. for today’s USDA Cattle on Feed: Dec. 1 on feed, 101.9%; Placed in Nov., 100.9%; Marketed in Nov., 97.3%

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 42-cents on Thu. to $76.03 & is $4.81 lower compared to last week

·       Trade est. for Dec. 23 USDA Quarterly Hogs & Pigs: All Hogs & Pigs, 103.0%; Breeding, 101.6%, Marketing, 103.1%   

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®