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TRENDS Firm CH, Unchanged, SH, Unchanged, WH, Up 2

February 14, 2020 07:14 AM


·       TRENDS—Firm:  CH, +$.0050; SH, +$.0050; WH, +$.0225; KWH, +$.0175 

·       What caught my eye: China did buy 4.9 mbu soybeans TW & now has 25 million in its unshipped total;  an 18-year low.  Last time unshipped total sales as a % of the USDA Feb forecast were this low (11%), the final total came in 90 million less (97/98)

·       Stocks slide as China reports an increase in virus reports.  Asia: Mostly firm: Nikkei, -0.59%; Shanghai, +0.38%; Hang Seng, +0.31%; EUROPE: Mostly firm—DAX, +0.20%; FTSE, +0.11%; CAC, -0.16%.  WALL STREET: Futures, firm--DOW, +30; S&P, +5.50; NAS, +27.75.  EXTERNALS: March crude, +$0.62 $52.04; Gold: unch $1,579; Mar $ Index, +.047 @ 99.005

  • T-storm Weather®: in Argentina, thunderstorms through early next week keep soil moisture adequate to moist, after which near-ideal coolness counters a 7- to 10-day period of drying as areas of high pressure dominate.  In Brazil, alternating dry and wet periods continue for corn and soybean development, harvesting, and planting, though southern areas (and Paraguay) stay drier than normal with most thunderstorms limited to the middle of next week when a cool front passes
  • CH, up $0.0050 @ $3.80; CK, dn $.0025 @ $3.8450.  Demand worries related to coronavirus led to 7 K in fund sales     
  • SH, up $.0050 @ $8.9675; SK, uch @ $9.06.  Funds: bot 3 SB, 2 SBM, & sold 4 SBO.  Board crush: $0.84, -7; LY, $0.96,-; 
  • WH, up $.0225 @ $5.4650; WK, up $.0175 @ $5.4650.  So much for solid export sales, funds sell 5 K                        


·       ATI Research: U.S. corn export demand is firming as seen by the rise in unshipped sales the past several weeks.  Dwindling availability of competing South American corn supplies is helping to fuel the increase

·       T-storm Weather: in Argentina, one or two rounds of thunderstorms affect a wide area within Sat.-Tue. producing 1.00” to 2.00” in most areas to maintain adequate to favorable soil moisture for corn development

·       Consultant: in Brazil, the ideal planting window for safrinha (double crop) corn in the state of Parana will close in about two weeks, so it looks like a significant percentage of the corn in the state will be planted later than desired

·       Through Feb. 13, the average projected crop insurance price for December 2020 corn futures is $3.9211



·       Consultant: weather in Brazil continues to be generally favorable for the soybean crop.  The one exception is far southern areas, where dry conditions continue to be a concern—especially in the state of Rio Grande do Sul

·       T-storm Weather: in central & northern Brazil, below-normal rain is forecast next 7 days, favoring soybean harvesting

·       Through Feb. 13, the average projected crop insurance price for November 2020 soybean futures is $9.1967

·       ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. wheat exports is 15-20 mbu per week compared to 20.5 mbu last yearT-storm Weather: HRW wheat in much of the U.S. Plains likely stays fairly dry in the second half of February, as storm systems miss to the east and south


·       Firm: CLH20+$0.64 $52.04; EBJ, +$0.66 @ $57.04; EBJ-QCLJ+.11; RBH, +.00070; NGH, -.016; HOH, +.0063

·       Chicago ethanol was $.00125 higher at $1.35; basis, mixed:  NYC, +$.00375 @ $.09; Gulf, -$.00625 @ $.11; Dallas, -$.00375 @ +$.08; Tampa, +$.00375 @ +$.18; LA, -$.00625 @ +$.2050

·       Ethanol RINs values, firmer: 2018’s, +2.00 @ 23½-24 ½; 2019’s, +3.00 @ 26 -28; 2020’s, +3.00 @ 30 ½-33                                           &nbs​p;                        ​;                                                  ​;   

·       The March RBOB/March ethanol spread widened modestly, +$.0012 to $.2372/gallon       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                    ​                   ​

  • Choice boxed beef firmed 14-cents on Thursday to $206.45 but is still $4.48 lower versus last week  
  • Light dressed cash cattle trade occurred on Thu. in the North at $190, which is $3.00 lower compared to last week

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.06 on Thu. to $61.87 and is $2.02 lower compared to a week ago   

·       CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.62 on Thu. to $56.70.  February futures gained $0.325 but are $0.700 below the index             

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®



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