HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Easier: CU, -$.02; SU, -$.0225; WU, -$.0025; KWU, -$.0075.  Del’y: SBM, 109; SBO, 241; SB, 36

·       What caught my eye:  Led by soybeans and low S AM supplies, several factors are coming together to make this fall’s Sep-Nov combined export total of corn and beans a record, with China’s import pace being critical to both

·       Senate off for vacation until Labor Day, no stimulus deal as jobless benefits & municipal aid remain major obstacles

• Asia—Mostly firm:  Nikkei, +0.17%; Shanghai, +1.19%; Hang Seng, -0.19%
• EUROPE: Weaker—DAX, -1.35%; FTSE, -2.25%; CAC, -2.13%
• WALL STREET: Futures, weaker --DOW, -157; S&P, 14; NAS, -34
• EXTERNALS: Oct crude, -$0.24 @ $42.28; Gold: -$13.60 @ $1,957; Sep $ Index, -.027 @ 93.290
• T-storm Weather®: some thunderstorms affect southern U.S. corn and soybeans through Saturday (0.50” to 1.00” totals), while a separate area of heavy thunderstorms through tonight affects some (not all) within the northwest third of the Corn Belt (0.50” to 1.50” totals).  A much cooler period begins Saturday-Sunday across the Corn Belt with maximums in the 70s and minimums in the 50s for several days, which is ideal for filling corn and soybeans
• CU, dn $.02 @ $3.2325; CZ, dn $.0150 @ $3.3725.  Huge fund buying, 30 K on both supply and demand factors                             ​              
• SU, dn $.0225 @ $8.84; SX, dn $.0275 @ $8.9675.  Funds: bought 15 SB, 1 SBM, 7 BO.  Board crush: $0.99 (U/U), -2; LY, $1.03
• WU, dn $.0025 @ $4.9650; WZ, dn $.01 @ $5.1125.  Fund buying totaled 5 K, driven by strength in the row crops                 

CORN/SORGHUM

·&​nbsp;      December 2020 corn futures on Thu. closed at $3.38 ¾, the highest settlement price for the contract since July 17

·       T-storm Weather®: a warmer period develops Aug. 19-20 forward across U.S. Corn Belt, but rain likely remains limited as upper-level high pressure to the west blocks energy and surface-level high pressure to the east limits humidities

·       Combined old and new-crop unshipped U.S. corn export sales as of Aug. 6 were 615 mbu, which is 124% higher compared to 275 mbu last year but is 1% lower versus 618 mbu two years ago

·       ATI Research: U.S. corn dough progress on average increases approximately 16% from Aug. 9-16

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather®: a warmer period develops Aug. 19-20 forward across U.S. Corn Belt, but rain likely remains limited as upper-level high pressure to the west blocks energy and surface-level high pressure to the east limits humidities

·       Combined old and new-crop unshipped U.S. soybean export sales as of Aug. 6 were 897 mbu, which is a record for this time of year.  This is 141% higher than last year’s 372 mbu, and 51% higher versus 595 mbu two years ago

·       ATI Research: unshipped U.S. HRS wheat export sales as of Aug. 6 were 57 mbu—the 2^nd highest total in 5 years

·       T-storm Weather®: light rains affect wheat in eastern Australia over the next two days, then at times going forward

ENERGY

·       Mixed:  CLV20, -$0.24 @ $42.28; EBV, -$0.29 @ $44.66; EBV-QCLV, -0.06; RBV, +.0097; NGV, -.005; HOV, +.0008

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0325 higher at $1.2975; basis, mixed: NYC, +$.0175 @ +$.1025; Gulf, +.0075 @ +$.0975; Dallas, -$.0075 @ +$.0825; Tampa, -$.0125 @ +$.2025; LA, +$.0075 @ +$.18750

·       Ethanol RIN values, higher: 2019’s, +2.50 @ 36 -39; 2020’s: +2.625 @ 39 ½ -41 ¾                                   &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                    

·       The Sep RBOB/August ethanol spread is trading -$.0206 this morning, down $.0102, premium ethanol

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                ​                       ​

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• Choice boxed beef increased $1.86 on Thursday to $210.95, and is up $6.29 versus a week ago
• October live cattle futures on Thu. closed at $110.150—the highest settlement price for the contract since Feb. 24
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $2.00 on Thu. to $73.25, and is $3.29 higher compared to last week
• CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.34 on Thu. to $53.48.  August futures were $0.800 higher & are $0.220 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®