IGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Down!  CZ, -$.0825; SX, -$.1075; WZ, -$.1075; KWZ, -$.11

·       What caught my eye: Markets are lower this morning, likely driven by demand concerns as pandemic cases rise sharply around the globe—China reports the highest numbers in two months 

·       No pre-election stimulus deal; France goes on a one-month lock-down; U.S. coronavirus cases surge

• Asia:  Mostly weaker:  Nikkei, -0.46%; Shanghai, +0.46%; Hang Seng, -0.32%
• EUROPE: Sharply lower—DAX, -2.95%; FTSE, -1.50%; CAC, -2.68%
• WALL STREET: Sharply lower–DOW futures, -430; S&P, -43.25; NAS, -113.5
• EXTERNALS: Dec crude, -$1.56 @ $38.01; Gold: -$11.50 @ $1,900; Mar $ Index, +0.458 @ 93.355
• T-storm Weather®: Heavy rain, ice, & snow affect OK, TX, & southern half of KS today as a large upper-level system slowly passes, producing 1.00”-3.00” of water & easing drought across southern third of HRW wheat.  The same system combines with remnant of Hurricane Zeta to produce 1.00”-2.00” of rain across the mid-South and southeast third of the Corn Belt.  Intense cold gradually breaks over the next five days across the Plains, as temps eventually return to much above-normal levels from Sun.-Mon. forward
• CZ, dn $.0825 @ $4.0775; CH, dn $.0750 @ $4.09.  The funds sold 2 K yesterday          
• SX, dn $.1075 @ $10.7150; SF, dn $.1050 @ $10.66.  Funds sold 4 SB; 4 SBM; 4 SBO. Board crush: $1.38 (Z/X), -$.10; LY, $0.87
• WZ, dn $.1075 @ $6.05; WH, dn $.1175 @ $6.04.  Funds sell 2 K as Southern Plains expected to get more moisture              

CORN/SORGHUM

​ ·       Dec. 2020 corn futures on Tue. traded $4.22 ¼—highest price since July 15, 2019—but closed $0.01 ¾ lower at $4.16

·       ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. corn exports is 33 to 37 mbu per week  

·       T-storm Weather®: An extended period of increasingly mild weather gradually develops later this week for the U.S. Corn Belt as the historic cold wave ends.  Another series of storm systems is not immediately foreseen

·       U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report scheduled to be released at 9:30 am CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       ATI Research: U.S. soybean exports est. in a broad range of 80 to 100 mbu per week for at least the next four weeks

·       T-storm Weather®: Several cool fronts trigger thunderstorms and produce near-normal rainfall of 2.00” to 5.00” over the next two weeks in soybean areas of central and northern Brazil

·       ATI Research: Near-term exports of U.S. wheat are projected to remain in a range from 13-18 mbu per week

·       T-storm Weather®: Light rain occurs this weekend & early next week  on wheat in Ukraine and at least parts of Russia  

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLZ20, -$1.55 @ $38.01; EBZ, -$1.27 @ $39.93; EBZ-CLZ, +.39; RBX, -.0347; NGX, +.002; HOX, -.0297

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude +0.8 (+4.6); Gasoline -0.4 (+2.3); Distillates -2.0 (-5.3).  Estimates for ethanol production avg. 0.925 mbpd (range: 0.900-0.942).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 19.777 mb (range: 19.500-20.000)

·       Chicago ethanol rose $.0225 yesterday to gained $.01 Monday to $1.6150.  Basis, lower: NYC, -$.0275 @ $.08; Gulf, -$.0175 @ +$.0750; Dallas, -$.0175 @ +$.0550; Tampa, -$.0175 @ +$.1350; LA, -$.0175 @ +$.1250

·       Ethanol RIN values, steady/firmer: 2019’s, +0.25 @ 59-61 ½; 2020’s: +0.25 @ 59 ½ -62; 2021, unch @ 61-63                                            &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;

·       The Nov RBOB/Oct ethanol spread is sharply lower, off $.0355 at -$.3846 per gallon this morning  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                 &nbs​p;                     

• Choice boxed beef was $1.13 lower on Tuesday at $206.70, and is down $3.90 compared to a week ago
• Week-to-week declines in choice boxed beef have been seen for 18 consecutive trading days
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $2.88 on Tuesday to $87.82, and is down $8.33 versus last week
• Lean Hog Index fell $0.68 on Tue. to $77.49.  December futures eased $0.100 and are $9.840 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®