HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Down: CZ, -$.0875; SF, +$.1075; WZ, -$.02; KWZ, -$.0550.  Dalian Jan futures: C, -8 ½; SB, +2    

·       What caught my eye: China Nov SB arrivals expected up 70% yr to yr at 9.15 MMT, adding to an already ample supply of coastal stocks which are currently nearly double LY at 5.7 million.  Limited need for additional U.S. buying before S AM supply available?

·       Europe rallies on a 3^rd Covid-19 vaccine; peaceful transfer of power said to be lifting U.S. futuresr

• Asia:  Mostly firm:  Nikkei, +2.50%; Shanghai, -0.34%; Hang Seng, +0.30%
• EUROPE:  Higher:  DAX, +1.09%; FTSE, +1.20%; CAC, +1.46%
• WALL STREET: Higher–DOW futures, +306; S&P, +28.50; NAS, +41
• EXTERNALS: Jan crude, +$0.52 @ $43.58; Gold: -$7.90 @ $1,866; Mar $ Index, -0.274 @ 92.160
• T-storm Weather®: Upper-level high pressure suppress rainfall across much of Brazil over the next 10 days, except far south.  A cool front shifts northward in 10-14 days & triggers some thunderstorms, but we are not forecasting heavy rain at that time.  In Argentina, several heavy thunderstorm clusters focus this week on the northern edge of the growing belt.  Some rain also occurs further south at times, but only near- or below-normal amounts are likely for most early-corn & soybeans over the next two weeks
• CZ, dn $.0875 @ $4.18; CH, dn $.0850 @ $4.2475.  The funds began the week buying 5 K on ideas of an improving demand outlook
• SF, dn $.1075 @ $11.8075; SH, dn $.10 @ $11.8250.  Funds: bot 5 SB, 3 SM, 2 BO. Board crush: $1.01 (Z/F), -$.12; LY, $1.00
• WZ, dn $.02 @ $5.9675; WH, dn $.03 @ $6.0150.  Funds were buyers of an estimated 1 K on Monday                                   ​;

CORN/SORGHUM

·  &n​bsp;    U.S. corn harvest as of Nov. 22: OH, 87% vs. 81% last year and 89% avg; WI, 92%/53%/79%; and MI, 91%/51%/78%

·       Consultant: Brazil 2020/21 corn crop est. is unch at 106.0 MMT.  Irreversible crop losses have already occurred for full-season corn in key southern states of Rio Grande do Sul & Santa Catarina; future weather will determine final loss

·       T-storm Weather®: Drier-than-normal weather is forecast over the next 10 days across most full-season corn in Brazil, with the exception of the state of Rio Grande do Sul in the far south

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks estimate for 20/21 U.S. corn is 1.632 bbu vs. November USDA estimate of 1.702

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks est. for 20/21 U.S. soybean is 0.118 bbu vs. November USDA estimate of 0.190

·       Consultant: Brazil 2020/21 soybean production est. is unch at 132.0 MMT; concern remains about uneven weather

·       T-storm Weather®: In Brazil, the dryness that is forecast over the next 10 days most likely will leave rain needed beyond early December in at least the states of Goiás, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, & probably parts of Paraná

·       USDA pegs 2021 U.S. winter wheat crop condition Good/Excellent ratings at 43% vs. 46% last week & 52% last year

·       T-storm Weather®: Light rain Tue. in U.S. central/southern Plains wheat; 0.05”-0.75” (driest far west, wettest far east)

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLF21, +$0.52 @ $43.58; EBF, +$0.57 @ $46.63; EBF-CLF, +0.02; RBZ, +.0225; NGZ, +.019; HOZ, +.0268

·       Chicago ethanol gained $.0105 yesterday to $1.373/gallon. Basis, weaker:  NYC, -$.0155 @ +$.0770; Gulf, -$.0005 @ +$.0570; Dallas, -$.0205 @ +$.0270; Tampa, +$.0205 @ +$.1270; LA, -$.0305 @ +$.1070

·       Ethanol RIN values, easier: 2019’s, dn 1.25 @ 60-61; 2020’s, dn 1.25 @ 61-62; 2021, dn 1.50 @ 62 – 63                                         ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;        

&mid​dot;       The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread is $.0099 firmer at -$.1261 per gallon 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             <​wbr><​wbr>     &​nbsp;                    <​/wbr><​/wbr><​/wbr>

• Choice boxed beef firmed $3.25 on Monday to $241.60, and is $14.65 higher versus a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was dn $0.05 v. last week at $109.57/cwt, and is dn $6.39 v. last year
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased $0.05 on Mon. to $76.81, and is down $3.53 compared to last week
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $31.45/cwt vs. last week’s $32.17, last month’s $33.47 & last year’s $43.27

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather